The Somali Pirate incident is a looming crisis for Obama and the

[cali]

longer it goes on, the worse it is for him and his administration. Some are arguing that the kidnapping of one American is not a foreign policy crisis for the president, but this is a military operation and he's the CiC. And matters appear to be escalating. Over night, Captain Phillips attempted to escape by jumping into the ocean, but was quickly recaptured. Pirate on shore have communicated that they're taking other hostagss that they've been holding to the site of the lifeboat.

If Captain Phillips is killed, that's not only a profound tragedy for him and his family, it's bad news on a political level, for the administration.

I hope this ends soon, and that the outcome is a good one for Phillips.

[Thrill]

1. I think you're overreacting a bit

I don't think this is a politically big deal.

[hlthe2b]

2. Ditto... This has been going on for several years...

Hostages from many countries have been taken and ultimately released--albeit with bribes.... Why is it ONLY a crisis for Obama, when crews of our ally's ships were taken over the last several years of the Bush* administration. It is an important, but not devastating issue and I have confidence in his approach, including what I strongly suspect is going on behind the scenes with the Somali government.

DU: Tune off the RW bloviators.... I think they are rubbing off on some DUers.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

11. Yeah, and the pirates have been in the news a lot lately.

This isn't just an Obama issue - it's a global issue. No part about this is his fault.

I don't, however, agree that there's no political risk involved in this for him. There very well could be, and the resolution will factor into that.

[hlthe2b]

15. I didn't say there was NO political risk...

I just don't think it is the nuclear bomb waiting to go off, that the RW and some others would have you to believe.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

17. Agreed - I don't think Obama's going to lose his 2nd term over this or anything. (nt)

[jefferson_dem]

3. I hope this standoff ends in a peaceful resolution but I don't think there's much political fallout.

if any for Obama. The only ones who will make a stink are those scumbags in the right-wing echo chamber who scream faux poutrage at anything/everything the President does.

[monmouth]

4. Why should this reflect on POTUS and his admin?????. Way over reaction...n/t

[cali]

7. because it's a military operation and he's the CiC. That's why.

[Phx_Dem]

33. Do you really think the pirates are gonna win this "battle?"

That's hard to imagine.

[Clio the Leo]

5. And reinforcement pirates have arrived.....

.. which is both funny and scary all at the same time.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090410/ap_on_re_af/piracy

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

6. Problem is, I don't know what they can do militarily.

It's not like they can conduct a stealth operation - on the ocean, the pirates will see anything coming from miles around, which would immediately risk the lives of the hostages. And brute force won't work for much the same reason, and the fact that sinking the ship would also kill the hostages. Maybe a Navy SEALs operation could work, but it would also no doubt be very risky.

[cali]

8. I don't know much about this stuff but what about scuba divers?

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

10. Yeah, that's what I was thinking with the SEALs

Still, with so many human shields around, along with the fact that once they board the ship, they risk being seen. And since I tend to doubt the hostages are being held on the ship's deck, any mission would be a great risk.

From the pirate point of view, they're trapped and the hostages are the only thing keeping them alive and out of jail. Giving them up at any point right now makes them immediately vulnerable, making their actions desperate and probably violent. Unlike other hostage situations, these guys are in plain sight and would be totally unable to run and hide, making the thought of even paying them off and later hunting them down very risky.

This is not a good situation for anyone involved, and if you're right about this being a political problem for Obama (which I'm not entirely sure it is), this will not likely end well for him either.

[BeyondGeography]

9. I'd rank it right up there with the Pittsburgh Pirate crisis

[jefferson_dem]

12. Or the Bucaneers crisis...

In Tampa Bay. They STILL don't have a decent QB, which sucks for them but is fabulous for my Falcons. :)

[cali]

13. you really don't think that this has the potential to be a big problem

for the President? I'd think again if I were you.

[TwilightGardener]

19. Only if one American crew after another is taken hostage. Then it's more

than one single unfortunate incident.

[karynnj]

36. how much did Somalia hurt Bill Clinton?

I know it was US military -but it was a very small action.

[asphalt.jungle]

32. if everyone has the same mindset as you then it will be one hell of a problem

i don't see it that way but it doesn't matter what i think because i can't pretend to know how others will react.

[Yavin4]

44. But The Oakland Raiders Crisis Is Stabilizing A Bit

This season is their best chance to capture the AFC West title.

[Jennicut]

14. Sorry but no. This is in international waters and the crew of the ship went knowing the dangers.

Its because Somalia is lawless right now, not because of anything Obama can do. Remake Somalia then. Not gonna happen. Clinton tried in Somalia years ago to do "peacekeeping" and it was a disaster. The best thing is to train crews on how to stealthily move in the waters and to use such weapons as electromagnetic energy. Read all about the techniques here: http://gcaptain.com/maritime/blog/anti-pirate-weapons-piracy-somalia/.

This is a problem for all countries, not for President Obama. Why are Americans always so much more important then the rest of the world? Its so arrogant.

[cali]

16. One more time: This is now a U.S. military operation. Obama is CiC.

Not saying that piracy off of Somalia isn't an international problem- clearly it is- but this discreet incident is now being handled by the U.S military, and so it is President Obama's crisis. And make no mistake, this drama is being incresingly portrayed in the MSM as a crisis taking place on Obama's watch.

[Jennicut]

22. "The msm"....precisely the problem. They make everything out to be a crisis.

Like Obama's "bowing". Screw them. Seriously. And what else can be done? They can't storm the ship, the pirates could kill the captain. Most of the time the people are released with a ransom but is the United States going to buy these guys off? No. So you have to send ships and threaten them to give up their hostage. Its going to take some time. Important thing is that the captain stays alive.

[cali]

23. storm the ship? They're on a lifeboat

not a ship. And I don't know much about rescue operations, but who knows? could a team of Seals rescue him? There's certainly speculation about that. And the MSM may be full of shit, but public perception is at least partly shaped by the MSM. I don't like it, but that's the way it is.

[Jennicut]

26. I meant the lifeboat. You cannot go after the Pirates, they might kill him.

A navy seal was on CNN yesterday and said the same thing.

[cali]

27. hell, Captain Phillips took the chance by attempting to escape

and I heard an ex-Seal speculating that they could attempt a rescue. Obviously there's little uniformity of opinion. The longer this goes on, the greater the risk to the Captain.

[Jennicut]

29. Agree. I just hope he ends up being okay.

[mkultra]

35. the life boat has already been retrieved by other pirates.

no we negotiate or blow the hell out of them. One or the other. If the captain dies, im sure the pirates will too. Hopefully they know that.

[TwilightGardener]

18. It's a scary situation, but I don't think it's going to impact the Obama administration--

after all, we've had American citizens captured over the last eight years, and in some cases beheaded, in the Middle East, and no one thought it reflected on Bush. Why is this different?

[ecstatic]

20. I'm so tempted to say...

"Thanks for your concern..."

But I know you mean well. I hope the situation is resolved soon too.

[Alcibiades]

21. This will be over soon

This is on the high seas, not our embassy in Tehran. It cannot last long.

[cali]

24. I agree, but a positive outcome is important.

[mkultra]

28. postive is not neccesary

It doesn't matter if the captain dies as long as the pirates are killed. Since your concerned about image, this is what public opinion will dictate.

[cali]

30. concerned about image? fuck your judgmental pile of crap

I'm concerned chiefly about Richard Phillips, particularly as he's a fellow Vermonter.

[mkultra]

34. my mistake, your OP talks about this being a political crisis for Obama

and your other response go into detail regarding how serious of a crisis this is for his administration if it isn't handled correctly. You also mention how important it is that it be portrayed positively in the MSM.


If your really only concerned about the captain, then your shifting gears midstream.

[cali]

37. yes, Im looking at the political implications

but your ridiculous and throughly mistaken assertation that I'm only concerned with image is a pile of dogshit.

[mkultra]

38. polotics is image

thanks for your concern.

[salguine]

25. If I ran a shipping company traveling through that area,

I believe I would equip each of my vessels with three or four of these and hire their crews to travel with us. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LZQR3RjXXno&feature=rela...

Can you imagine what this thing would do to one of those little piss-ant motorboats? Sharks would get there and go, "Huh. There's nothing big enough to eat here."

And when anyone raised the issue that it's in violation of international shipping regulations to arm merchant vessels, I would counter that piracy is also against international shipping regulations, and as long as pirates are abducting and holding crews of merchant vessels, I will continue to so arm my vessels, until the current piracy epidemic has passed. In light of the extraordinary circumstances, international regulations are superseded by my right—and indeed, obligation—to protect the safety of my crews.

[Phx_Dem]

31. Yeah, I don't think so. I think the biggest issue with this situation

is the fact that U.S.-flagged private cargo ships are traveling these waters with no weaponry for protection? And now everyone knows they aren't armed, so they'll be sitting ducks if they keep it up. WTF?

[AtomicKitten]

39. Delegating this I think is the appropriate action currently.

n/t

[polichick]

40. imo the situation helps the President and Gates sell their military reorganization plans...

But of course I hope it ends well for those involved.

[Alcibiades]

41. I hope they do take note of that

Taking on the Soviet Navy and protecting US shipping require different sorts of capability. What seems more likely, though, is that they will try to get a Navy that can do both, though I'm encouraged by Gates' budget.

[polichick]

43. The difficult part will come when members of Congress fight for the status quo...

...because of the defense contractors in their districts ~ Dodd is already making noise about protecting engine manufacturers, probably United Technologies in East Hartford.

[FrenchieCat]

42. Hell, anything that happens is to one American anywhere is

politically related to this President as far as I'm concerned.
I mean, why not? Who cares about whether any of it makes sense or not! :shrug: :sarcasm:

Now, the Somalian Pirates hold the fate of our President in their hands! :scared:

How come George Bush's approval ratings went up to 90% after 9/11?
Guess he got the benefit of the doubt, cause he was soooo special, hey?

So it appears that anything that can be interpreted as this President failing is acceptable. Anything! I'm personally tired of this unfairass shit, till it ain't even funny. :mad:

[cali]

45. um, I didn't say that the Somali pirates hold his fate in their hands

but he's CiC and this is a military operation. If it goes well, he gets the credit. If it doesn't, or if it drags on for weeks- unlikely, but not impossible- he gets the blame. That's just the way it works.

[FrenchieCat]

46. I'm sure you are accurate on this......

But I doubt This President would get any credit if it went well...because then, the only hero we'd hear about would be the Captain. That's how it is bound to work for this particular President.

[opihimoimoi]

47. Our destroyer warship should give them food water and tow all of them to America,,,

get the Capt back and hold them as citzens....give them 2 million in monies....then fine them 2 million for kidnapping, and jail them...

[TheKentuckian]

48. Political danger-real but minimal, political benefit of a positive outcome-negligible at best

The real villains? Fucking commercial fishing conglomerates. I'm guessing if you scratch a millimeter below the surface you'll find the Russians, the Japanese, and at least one if not both of the USA and/or the Saudis.

The real reason anyone cares...too much oil running through them parts.

Likely result...a "war on piracy" and more dollars down the rabbit hole chasing shadows and notching up the oppression of the oppressed. The Somalis will probably wish they had just been nuked and saved the misery.

[Hippo_Tron]

49. The ransom will probably be paid and he will probably be released

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/discussion/2009/04/10/DI2009041001303.html

They should probably just start paying the pirates not to seize the ships and save everybody involved a lot of hassle.

[Joe the Revelator]

50. Whoa Cali, you're going way overboard (pardon the pun) w/ this

This is a criminal deal, not a "military" action as you put it. Which is why the FBI is involved. The navy is there because the FBI does not have huge intimidating boats.

[MoonRiver]

51. IMHO, this has very little to do with President Obama.

It is an international crisis, which MUST BE RESOLVED. We cannot have pirates kidnapping innocent people on the high seas on a daily basis. The international community has to find a solution. The U.S. and President Obama are just one piece of resolving this horror.

[cliffordu]

52. I don't know why.

IT's the economy.