NJ-Gov: Two More Terrible Polls for Corzine

[ccharles000]

Quinnipiac (4/14/-20, registered voters, March 2009 in parens):

Jon Corzine (D-inc): 38 (37)
Chris Christie (R): 45 (46)
Undecided: 14 (15)
(MoE: 2.1%)
Strategic Vision (R) (4/17-19, registered voters, no trendlines):


Jon Corzine (D-inc): 36
Chris Christie (R): 47
Undecided: 16
(MoE: 3%)
Both pollsters also test Corzine against a variety of lesser GOP candidates, and the numbers are pretty dispiriting - mostly a series of small leads for Corzine, but that's due to name rec.

It's the GOP primary where things get funkadelic. Strategic Vision gives Christie a 40-15 lead over his nearest competitor, former Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan. But Q-pac has Christie up 39-24 among RVs and just 46-37 among LVs. I suppose we'd rather face the more conservative Lonegan, but does he have time to pull it out? The primary is on June 2nd. I'm not even sure how big a difference it would make - Q has them tied at 41, even though Lonegan is unknown by 72% of the state.

One interesting side-note: The same Q-Poll (different press release) finds that New Jersey voters approve of gay marriage by a 49-43 margin, a twelve-point shift in favor from two years ago. These numbers aren't quite like the 14-point margin in favor in neighboring New York, but perhaps Corzine will start pushing this issue nonetheless.

NJ has civil unions, but a state panel found in December that they don't provide full equality and recommended passage of a gay marriage bill. Corzine said he'd sign such legislation, but he hasn't made it a signature issue like David Paterson has - yet. Even though only a small plurality supports gay marriage, it might nonetheless make political sense to push it. If Corzine does win, it'll almost certainly be by a very narrow margin, and Karl Rove showed you can win elections like that by playing hard to issues which sharply divide the electorate, as long as slightly more voters are on your side.

New Jersey is intimately familiar with bitter, partisan races, and if Corzine wants to survive, he might have to wage some serious trench warfare.

http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/4831/njgov-two-more-terrible-polls-for-corzine

[ClarkUSA]

1. This happened the last time to Corzine. I hope the RNC pours $10M into this race again.

[Hippo_Tron]

5. New Jersey = annual GOP bastion of false hope

I swear to god, Democrats secretly commission these polls that show inflated Republican numbers so that the RNC will dump millions into the expensive New York media market.

It's literally just like Charlie Brown and the football, they never learn. And I'm sure with Michael Steele's new hip-hoppification of the GOP strategy he will get the impression that the one-armed midget vote will put the GOP over the top in New Jersey.

[ClarkUSA]

8. How true. I expect Pres. Obama to campaign and cut ads for him, which should seal the deal.

I swear to god, Democrats secretly commission these polls that show inflated Republican numbers so that the RNC will
dump millions into the expensive New York media market.

:rofl: I'm sure Corzine is keeping his powder dry like the last time Republicans got all lathered up over his "certain" defeat.

[no_hypocrisy]

2. Corzine inherited the mess of high property taxes, a debt, and mandates in the budget.

And even as he tries to fix it, he gets blamed all of it.

[Drunken Irishman]

3. I think NJ likes to fuck with Republicans.

Remember in 2004 when Bush thought he really had a shot to flip the state?

[ClarkUSA]

4. Yup. Republicans always fall for it, too. This time will be no different.

[Hippo_Tron]

6. New Jersey and the Republicans in picture form...

[Beacool]

7. I think that my neighbor is political toast.

We'll probably end up with a Repug governor.

:-(