Novak: US troops to leave Iraq NEXT FFFFing YEAR!!!!

[buycitgo]

this just in on Washington Journal

he read it from the Sun Times, I guess

RN's sources say that WE'RE out next year

they don't care about establishing democracy!

their excuse is that just getting rid of that bad bad Saddam is more than enough for those ungrateful Iraqis!

you KNOW that's straight from Rove or Cheney

THIS is GIGANTIC!!!!!!!!!!!

[leftchick]

1. shades of Viet Nam....

say we won and get the hell out? Helicopters on embassys anyone?

[buycitgo]

2. really.....how are they going to swing this story?

especially with Allawi coming here

WTF is Allawi going to say about this?

does it leave him hanging by his sac, or WHAT?

[cthrumatrix]

110. the media will spin this for the chimp

[buycitgo]

44. here's the column itself

http://www.suntimes.com/output/novak/cst-edt-novak20.html

Inside the Bush administration policymaking apparatus, there is strong feeling that U.S. troops must leave Iraq next year. This determination is not predicated on success in implanting Iraqi democracy and internal stability. Rather, the officials are saying: Ready or not, here we go.

This prospective policy is based on Iraq's national elections in late January, but not predicated on ending the insurgency or reaching a national political settlement. Getting out of Iraq would end the neoconservative dream of building democracy in the Arab world. The United States would be content having saved the world from Saddam Hussein's quest for weapons of mass destruction.

The reality of hard decisions ahead is obscured by blather on both sides in a presidential campaign. Six weeks before the election, Bush cannot be expected to admit even the possibility of a quick withdrawal. Sen. John Kerry's political aides, still languishing in fantastic speculation about European troops to the rescue, do not even ponder a quick exit. But Kerry supporters with foreign policy experience speculate that if elected, their candidate would take the same escape route.

.............

Well-placed sources in the administration are confident Bush's decision will be to get out. They believe that is the recommendation of his national security team and would be the recommendation of second-term officials. An informed guess might have Condoleezza Rice as secretary of state, Paul Wolfowitz as defense secretary and Stephen Hadley as national security adviser. According to my sources, all would opt for a withdrawal.

[htuttle]

68. I thought you were talking about Nixon's Secret Plan to End the War...

....Which never existed except in campaign literature.


Fool me once.

[BootinUp]

3. I wouldn't assume Novak is right without another source.

Novak is a bit too nutty to rely on for something that big.

[buycitgo]

6. but....he's influential enough that this could be a HUGE story

it's the topic of discussion on CSPAN this morning

a caller is accusing Novak of working with Begala and Carville for KERRY!

typical of the wingnut caller; he just said Kerry's wife is 'goofy', before the host cut him off, recognizing him as a cheating caller...more than once in the last month

[DebJ]

4. compare this to the story of a massive troup call up set for

November as reported by an inside military source?

[izzie]

5. Gee I heard him say Kerry shot him self. Who can believe this nut?

He has always seemed like a cheap shot type reporter. He is on TV so often he is like how Bush does his job. He has no time to do his job the same as Bush.

[soothsayer]

7. See, now if * was really doing well, he wouldn't be floating this

trial balloon out there, or caving to pressure from the better candidate, Kerry!

Therefore, we know that * knows his ass is toast...!

So....hoorah! He's out of here!

[teryang]

8. This must be why they're building 14 military bases

...because they're getting out.

[buycitgo]

10. isn't it amazing that nobody's talking about that?

those bases have been common knowledge here for months and months, if not longer

[acmavm]

29. Exactly! I brought up that little point Saturday, and hardly anyone paid

any attention. In fact, a couple of people didn't even know about it.

Sure, we're leaving. When hell freezes over (if bush* has his way).

[cidliz2004]

113. That is funny because I brought it up on Saturday to!

I got very little response about it. What amazes me is that building 14 military bases is more than a little proof that the intentions in Iraq ARE NOT short term. YET, the bases being built are not talked about and given the attention that they should be given.

What actually is going on? Even the "left" people in the media don't jump on this telling fact. Why not? This isn't the first time
that I have seen something ignored that to me should not be ignored because it further unscores the real intentions of this administration.

[cidliz2004]

114. That is funny because I brought it up on Saturday to!

I got very little response about it. What amazes me is that building 14 military bases is more than a little proof that the intentions in Iraq ARE NOT short term. YET, the bases being built are not talked about and given the attention that they should be given.

What actually is going on? Even the "left" people in the media don't jump on this telling fact. Why not? This isn't the first time
that I have seen something ignored that to me should not be ignored because it further unscores the real intentions of this administration.

[carpe_vinum]

76. *sigh* Yet no one is sounding that trumpet. (nt)

[buycitgo]

79. they have been. this is not a new story

it's many months old

the MSM has ignored it, because it's not good for the junta

that's ALL there is to that

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

9. They have no intention of doing this, but want to float this to win the

election, shrubya seen as wanting to end the war.

[buycitgo]

14. zackly....they can get away with saying ANYTHING

all they do is plant whatever meme they want, like Kerry faking his medals, for example, and the media run with it dutifully, planting the subliminable motif in the public consciousness

doesn't matter whether it's true or not

it's just another ADVERTISING/MARKETY jingle

once it's lodged in one's mind, it's VERY difficult to dislodge with the truth

[leftchick]

15. Exactly... like Nixon's "secret plan"...

let us hope he ends a disgrace like dickie.

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

17. Trouble is, Nixon got reelected first before getting booted in disgrace.

[buycitgo]

18. secret plan was from the 68 campaign, though

you know, the one during which Arnold saw him debate Humphrey, and became a republican? only problem is that they didn't debate at all that time

[Art_from_Ark]

33. Did Arnold actually say that?

The Nixon-Kennedy debate of 1960 was the last presidential debate until Ford-Carter in 1976.

Maybe Arnie is taking his cue from his mentor: "I saw the first plane hit the tower, live on TV"

[buycitgo]

35. funny the media didn't make anything about that, isn't it?

it was discussed quite a bit here

he definitely said it

[teryang]

22. In spite of the Watergate break in

...he was re-elected.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

32. The Watergate break-in on June 17, 1972, was a pretty low-key news item...

...at the time of Nixon's re-election and had not yet been connected to Nixon. Once the 1972 election was over, the Democrats began to ratchet up the pressure for hearings on the subject.

[teryang]

116. That's odd, the significance was immediately apparent

...to me as a twenty year old college student.

[Zynx]

37. The Republicans don't want a war going on by the 2006 midterms.

[wildwww2]

56. Nixon did the same damn Bu$hit. Twice. Iraq war crime= Big GOP bucks

Our troops are screwed unless we get a new leader. With some guts and some brains. Who will tell Halliburton,Bechtel,Carlyle Group and the rest of the PNAC crowd to go to hell. Or that they must fight the war crime with their own sons and daughters. That would maybe get those war criminals out of Iraq.
Peace
Wildman
Al Gore is My President

[CornField]

97. Yup - this came right on the heels of critisizm by GOP leadership

It's a plant -- it's an appeasement -- it doesn't mean a damn thing

[faithnotgreed]

117. right on cornfield!

[bowens43]

11. Sounds like BS to me.

The US is in the process of establishing over a dozen permanent bases in Iraq. Democracy is not a goal or even an option in Iraq but securing the oil fields is. No matter who is in the oval office, the US is there to stay.

[Shoeempress]

12. What they meant was our troops will leave Iraq & go into Iran, Syria,

Jordan and any other Country Chimpy gets a yen to invade and might have valuable resources Halliburton can exploit.

[Wind Dancer]

13. This is a political play

for anti-war voters.

IT IS GIGANTIC!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

He will not pull them out but will say it to get a vote.

[buycitgo]

16. couldn't agree more

if you're right, this will be an important topic of discussion for as long as the pugs want it to be

then, like the Berger paper theft story, it will disappear, having served its purpose

WTF happened to KITTY KELLEY, btw?


that book of hers should be a huge stinkbomb, but it's being completely ignored now

[in_cog_ni_to]

19. Let WES CLARK rebut THAT one!

BULLSHIT! What a bunch of fucking LIARS! They know damn well and good the troops WILL NOT be coming home in a year! The ONLY reason they are saying that is because Kerry has said it would take at least 4 years. Man, I HATE these people! NOW, they are using our troops for more political gain! They are giving our tropps HOPE that they have ONLY one year left and they know it's a damn LIE. They're DISPICABLE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

:nuke::grr::nuke::grr::nuke::grr::nuke::grr::nuke::grr::nuke::grr:

[soothsayer]

20. Flippity floppity floop!

wattsamatta, georgie-porgie can't make up his widdle mind about iwok?

[buycitgo]

23. yep...did you hear Lindsey Graham say this is JUST like WWII?

and that we'll be there for as long as it takes, no matter WHAT!

he implied very clearly that we'll be there for a long, long time

[Ganja Ninja]

21. I expect them to retreat to a permanent base near the Persian Gulf.

From there we'll watch while the Iraqi's fight it out. We can control the flow of oil out of the south and generally bully them and threaten Iran from there too.

I think Bush is just waiting until after the election. Then he'll turn control over to the puppet government and sit back while Iraq is engulfed in civil war.

[buycitgo]

28. naaah...they're going to try to do NOTHING that will cause

more US casualties than absolutely necessary, then bomb the crap out of them; probably invade some of the nogo cities....they're already planning that, as many stories to that effect are out there

once the election is over, SO many bad things are going to happen that it's going to be a real shitstorm: horrendous recount/vote machine problems, gas pricem increase, interest rate hikes, housing bubble bursting, all hell breaking loose in Iraq, US military chaos over low troop levels/draft reinstatement

etc

[Media_Lies_Daily]

24. If it's coming from Novak, it's a "gigantic" lie calculated to stop...

...the bleeding of GOP voters switching to Kerry.

If anyone believes anything coming from this traitor's mouth, they need to seek immediate help.

JMHO.

[Guaranteed]

26. If that's the case, we turn the tables on them.

What's your REAL position on the war, Bush? What are you planning to DO about this mess...that YOU'VE made???

That's not what you said before, you know...are you SURE you really know what you're doing? You know, this country's looking for STRONG leadership...

[Veggie Meathead]

25. Peace is at hand--- Henry the K, October 1972

[buycitgo]

31. that's RIGHT.....some author said that this was the original

October surprise. heard that just the other day

but he was WRONG....the original one was four years earlier, when that same war criminal/traitor was working as a SPY for Nixon, while 'advising' LBJ.

he gave Nixon the inside scoop on dem plans regarding the ongoing negotiations with the North Vietnamese. with that information, he was able to get the Nixon camp TELL the NLF to hold off with LBJ, that they'd get BETTER deal with Nixon

it was the SAME thing they did during the 80 October surprise

btw, the NVs got almost exactly the same terms in 73 as they'd have gotten in 68

[Wind Dancer]

36. We should have expected this!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Same players, different time. I am so angry.

[teryang]

27. Why then are they trying to lift the 24 month restriction...

...on mobilizing national guard?

[Cartooner]

30. I'M NOT SURPRISED... I tried to get KERRY to have an exit plan

This is a ploy to win the election... It's trying to do a ONE-UP on Kerry.

I've been trying to get KERRY to set an exit date... HIS CHOICE of when it should be.

But you watch... this is the way Bush will try to TRUMP Kerry on Iraq.

IT MAY BE BOGUS ... BUT you SEE what an impact it would have ...

HUGE NEWS ... AND very very attractive. IF IT'S HANDLED WELL.

Exit but not just immediately pull out... set a date certain ... AFTER doing our best to pacify and assist the Iraqi's with building security.

Ask yourself...WHEN WILL IT BE APPROPRIATE for us to leave? ...1 year?
2, 5, 8, 10, NEVER?

Come on... if you have no answer there... does that mean we can't EVER leave?

AT SOME POINT we should leave... KERRY should say when. His best shot at being elected is to LEAD ... LEADING (at last look) means being FIRST? ...

[Guaranteed]

34. Yup, this is Rove trying to settle the stomachs of

the GOPers jumping ship. Bush, of course, will never come out and SAY this. This is their backhanded "wink, wink."

[buycitgo]

38. those fricking DEMS of ours had better make it an issue

that BUSH and CHENEY must answer personally

they should be HAMMERED with this

HAMMERED, to the point they must address it, as Kerry felt he had to address his Iraq war vote, and for which he still suffers contumely

[Wind Dancer]

39. Absolutely,

the WH is using Novak again to do their dirty work.

[buycitgo]

40. perfect! that's EXACTLY the wording to use, too

pretty sharp, FDNC!!!

[Wind Dancer]

42. POS Novak! I couldn't be more disgusted!

Time for coffee, still waking up!

[liveoaktx]

69. I'll believe that WHEN I hear BUSH SAY IT, not creepy Novak

[buycitgo]

72. you WON'T, unless the dems or media (ha ha on the latter)

FORCE him to address it

but he won't have to, most likely, any more than he's had to really address the swift boat liars, or his OWN tawdry TANG experience, or his DRUG use, or Harken, or Salem bin Laden, or James Bath, or.....ANYTHING

you know that by now

he gets other people to do ALL his dirty work, just as the BFEE ALWAYS does

[Cartooner]

41. when DO we leave? 1 yr? 3? 5? 10? 50? NEVER? ... Kerry must LEAD

LEADING MEANS being FIRST ... That means KERRY SHOULD BE FIRST WITH A PLAN FOR EXITING ...

If YOU DON'T HAVE ONE, LET ME ASK YOU...

Do we leave when there IS NO MORE INSURGENCY?

HOW ABOUT when there's INSURGENCY ALL OVER THE COUNTRY?

HOW many more DEATHS in our military is worth it? 2000? 5000? 10,000?
50,000?

I'm not saying we should pull out tomorrow... but, Kerry MUST have (and state) an answer... a PLAN ...

SHORT OF THAT ... he doesn't seem like he's LEADING.

[buycitgo]

43. we are really really screwed, no matter what happens

the whole WORLD is screwed, cause, if we stay for one more day, one more year, or FIFTY, as soon as we leave, all HELL will break loose, cause we've already allowed enough maniacs to get in that instant chaos will break out. Even if they have elections, which will be a joke, the Kurds will NOT allow themselves to have any less autonomy than they're enjoyed since the nofly zones were established over a DECADE ago. That alone will insure CIVIL war when we leave

there is NO answer for this...it will be like a hurrican, a volcano, or any other act of nature

we opened Pandora's box there, and there is NO WAY to stop what's going to happen

If it weren't for the fact that Bush will do even MORE to destroy our country if he gets back in, I wish that this would be HIS problem to try to solve

I pity Kerry if he wins

[Cartooner]

47. HERE'S ONE POSSIBLE SCENARIO:

WHAT ISN'T ACCEPTABLE IS WASTING 50,000 LIVES THERE!

Here's one possible answer: Since there are three MAJOR FACTIONS THERE, divide the country into THREE DISTRICTS ...based on percentage of population.

SET A DATE CERTAIN TO EXIT ... (KERRY SHOULD BE THE ONE TO DO THIS)

Then, get the hell out.

The alternative is just as you say... NO ANSWER. AND "NO ANSWER" IS UNACCEPTABLE.

[seaglass]

52. Bad answer. Autonomy for the Kurds creates a problem for

both Turkey and Syria.

Don't you think if the answer was as easy as this it would have already been done or Kerry would have stated it as part of his plan?

[buycitgo]

54. lots of people are pushing that, but it will lead to CERTAIN civil war

Shiites are about 60-65 percent of the populace, and will NOT cede Baghdad to anybody....Sunnis are about, what 20 percent, if that, leaving the Kurds?

Kurds have no oil in their territory, and won't abide by that geographical division

sunnis know they'll get nailed by both groups for being Saddam backers

it'll be Kosovo/Serbia writ LARGE, because of the oil

let's not forget Turkey or Iran. Neither of them will abide an independent Kurdish state

there IS NO solution to this problem

the only one we had was, unfortunately, given the total hash Bush has made of this, is a Saddam-like strong man, and Allawi hasn't nearly enough, if any, public support to bring them together

this doesn't even take into account those who DESIRE an open, chaotic state, like Afghanistan. Once we pull troops out, it's going to be total, all out chaos, like I said. think Kosovo, think Sudan, think Congo, think Rwanda

have a nice day

[BayouBengal07]

99. I had to do a term paper on Iraq for my International Relations class.

The Shi'a won't cede control because they've just gained it. For decades Saddam ruled through the Sunni minority, leaving Shi'a out of the political loop. They just got their chance, they won't give it up.

The Sunni were purged of their government jobs (military officers and civil servants and the like) during our "de-Baathification" plan. It got so out of hand that we had to revise our strategy and allow "good" former Baathists their jobs again. They've lost ground and they're pissed.

The Kurds do actually have significant oil reserves in the north; they just don't control them. They have opperated an essentially independent Kurdish state in the no-fly zone for about a decade and are not exactly happy about having to accept rule from Baghdad. Civil war (involving Turkey as well, who has pledged war if the Kurds secede) would be the worst case scenario if the Kurds decided to keep their autonomy. Also a hot button issue is Kirkuk; during Saddam's Anfal campaign, he tried to "Arabize" the city, kicking tens of thousands of Kurds out. Well now those Kurds living in refugee camps want their land back. That land also has significant oil reserves that Baghdad would hate to lose to an independent Kurdistan.

I doubt the violence will stop once US troops leave anyway, if we're still building permanent bases there. I doubt we can give those up either, as permanent bases in the region were a major plan of the September 2000 PNAC security strategy "Rebuilding America's Defenses" :

"In the Persian Gulf region, the presence of American forces, along with British and French units, has become a semipermanent fact of life. Though the immediate mission of those forces is to enforce the no-fly zones over northern and southern Iraq, they represent the long-term commitment of the United States and its major allies to a region of vital importance. Indeed, the United States has for decades sought to play a more permanent role in Gulf regional security. While the unresolved conflict with Iraq provides the immediate justification, the need for a substantial American force presence in the Gulf transcends the issue of the regime of Saddam Hussein."

[buycitgo]

104. thanks for that; putting substance to my blather

I'd read all that, except for the oil....didn't know they had any

how do they have it, but don't control it. curious to know more about that....I can't remember anything anymore

is your paper avalaible online?

if that's part of it, sounds very readable

can you link it?

thx

[BayouBengal07]

105. What I meant to say is

They could get access to Kirkuk and its oil, and they have a historical claim to it.

My paper isn't that readable, but I got an A+ on it (I think the prof graded easy, it was like the last day of class), and it isn't available online, but I can maybe get it up somewhere. Copy and paste does wonders. I'll keep you informed if I do.

[buycitgo]

106. please do.....I minored in poli sci/history, whatever that means

that snip you provided was readable enough for me

can you imagine BUSH trying to write even a paragraph like that?

[BootinUp]

112. Sounds like you wrote an excellent paper, should be required reading

for US citizens.

[buycitgo]

45. In case you missed it upthread, here's the column itself

http://www.suntimes.com/output/novak/cst-edt-novak20.ht...

Inside the Bush administration policymaking apparatus, there is strong feeling that U.S. troops must leave Iraq next year. This determination is not predicated on success in implanting Iraqi democracy and internal stability. Rather, the officials are saying: Ready or not, here we go.

This prospective policy is based on Iraq's national elections in late January, but not predicated on ending the insurgency or reaching a national political settlement. Getting out of Iraq would end the neoconservative dream of building democracy in the Arab world. The United States would be content having saved the world from Saddam Hussein's quest for weapons of mass destruction.

The reality of hard decisions ahead is obscured by blather on both sides in a presidential campaign. Six weeks before the election, Bush cannot be expected to admit even the possibility of a quick withdrawal. Sen. John Kerry's political aides, still languishing in fantastic speculation about European troops to the rescue, do not even ponder a quick exit. But Kerry supporters with foreign policy experience speculate that if elected, their candidate would take the same escape route.

.............

Well-placed sources in the administration are confident Bush's decision will be to get out. They believe that is the recommendation of his national security team and would be the recommendation of second-term officials. An informed guess might have Condoleezza Rice as secretary of state, Paul Wolfowitz as defense secretary and Stephen Hadley as national security adviser. According to my sources, all would opt for a withdrawal

[buycitgo]

46. "saved the world from Saddam's quest for WMDs"....!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

how pathetic is THAT?

that's the ONLY defense he makes of invading that poor country!

defense of a crazy man's wet dream

based on that premise, how many kids are we going to have to draft to occupy all the countries with a similar leadership situation?

[BootinUp]

51. paul wolfowitz as def Sec. - thats a joke.

He would never be confirmed.

[Junkdrawer]

48. Bullshit. They spent 100s of Billions of dollars to get a military base

in the middle of the oil fields. They could give a rats ass about the 100 thousand Iraqi lives and thousands of American lives, but they won't walk away from that much capital.

[buycitgo]

59. they want to stay for that, as well as for the PNAC plan, but they

may have no choice, cause things have gotten SO bad that events are in the saddle

they have no more control over too much of the country now, and, according to those who know, it's just getting worse every day

they only hope that it doesn't completely explode in the next four or five weeks

that's ALL they care about

they could have a NUKE detonated on November 3, and that would be pefectly FINE with them

all they want is another four years, in which to totally bankrupt our country....screw the rest of the world for now...they realize how much more complicated those places are. they have a lazy, ignorant, moronic populace here, over which they have total control, and who DOES NOT CARE what happens to them, as long as they're being TOLD by the media that everything's fine and dandy

[kentuck]

49. Trying to trick Kerry into saying "Me, too" ?

I don't trust this story.

[hexola]

50. Electioneering...How can Kerry beat that?

All talk - an effort to counter any rosier plan Kerry may propose...

They will stay as long as they want...democracy or not.

[seabeyond]

53. i heard repugs last week dissing kerry for putting a time

on getting the troops out. said it was terribly irresponsible to put a dae on troop withdrawal. all kinds of major consequences on doing that and just wrong

a week later, another flip flop from bush

this is why kerry cant say anything about his plan. regardless of what he says, in rhetoric bush steals it, not that he implements it and then the media takes that and runs saying what kerry is saying is the same as bush, that there is no difference in plan

this is to start ahead of kerry offense to go after bush and iraq, null and voiding what kerry has to say

[Wind Dancer]

57. Exactly, I think that is why Kerry has been

extremely guarded in his plan re: Iraq. This administration will never withdraw the troops, he just wants the anti-war vote. If he wins this time, there will be a draft and nobody will be able to stop it. We are living in "The Twilight Zone".

[Cartooner]

60. LET 'EM DISS ... "LEADING" means BEING FIRST ... not last

KERRY wants the American people to see him as a strong leader. To hell with what a the Repulsicans say about it ...

I'm an old debate coach.... Think of it this way: In a debate, do you say, "Ask my opponent what his plan is?"
NO!!!!
You present a plan, show advantages to it, concede there may be some disadvantages but the advantages outweigh them.
You SHOW RATIONALE to the plan.... in this case, AN EXIT STRATEGY MEANS:
1. The Iraqi people will KNOW they must govern themselves.
2. If there's civil war, WITHOUT Sadam Hussein, THERE POSSIBLY would have been civil war anyway. We cannot settle EVERY civil war.
3. Iraq is a relatively small country.
4. We do not owe the Iraqi people more than GIVING THEM OUR BEST, which we have almost completed now. Taking out Hussein SHOULD have been seen as a "gift" to them.
5. We cannot accept unlimited military deaths.
6. We cannot force democracy where it's not welcome. If the Iraqis want democracy, just as we had to, they must be willing to fight for it.
7. We are seen as (because we ARE) OCCUPIERS. We're making enemies all over the Arabian world.
8. Our policy of trying to rid the world of "evil" is unrealistic.
9. We aren't likely to think a military draft is good policy.
10. Young men and women aren't likely to want to enlist to go and die.

[BootinUp]

62. Good points n/t

[seabeyond]

63. that isnt how the media plays it. they do the opposite

if they were showing kerry came up with it and bush followed that would be good, they dont do that. they bring them to, they both have the same plan. that is it. i have thought kerry's only chance in this is national tv, next to bush, out of blue put plan forth and then maybe he will get the credit of leading. but that is a big if. i can see bush swinging right to kerry plan and media going with it

in a just world............

[buycitgo]

65. of course....remember, Kerry has said for a long time that we

needed to take the other nations in with us

Bush finally said that a few months ago, and it was noted (briefly, then dropped) that he was echoing Kerry's plan, almost to a T.

THEN, Kerry was made fun of for having almost the same position as BUSH, the very same one to which Bush had gravitated

despite Dem protestations at the time, the MEDIA made it seem as if Kerry was the one who came belatedly to this position, and has scoffed at his stance ever since

it's sickening beyond words

[buycitgo]

64. good points, but both sides know that there isn't any exit strategy

that doesn't include the almost certain lapse into Kosovo-like chaos

it's almost a given

EVERYBODY is admitting this behind the scenes

the man who knows as much about this as any Westerner is Juan Cole, and he's been saying this for months now

So has Richard Lugar

he and another pug admitted this on This Week a few months ago

I started a thread on it at the time, cause I was so surprised that they were as honest as they were, admitting right out front that there weren't any positive solutions available at the time

this was in the context of Lugar's being VERY upset that Bush hadn't talked to him about their plans in a LONG LONG time...many months

[Cartooner]

70. The THREE STATE solution is the best one

THE GUY WITH THE PLAN will win this election... the guy without a plan will be seen as
1. A NON-LEADER
2. SOMEONE WHO GIVES UP (therefore weak)
3. A LOSER.

Suppose for a minute we HADN'T gone in and the Iraqis had overthrown Hussein... then the country had "fallen" into civil war and chaos.

What would we have done? ... Taken the side of one of the three factions? Which one? Sent in 130,000 troops?

We did precipitate some of the problem they now have, but not all of it.
We cannot solve the part we did not cause.

I say once again... LEADING MEANS BEING FIRST, not reacting and deferring to someone else.
It's certainly possible to LAY THE BLAME ON BUSH FOR THE WHOLE MESS... but, then, POSING A SOLUTION makes one EVEN STRONGER.

That can win it for KERRY.

[buycitgo]

75. instant civil war...including a very probable invasion of Kurds

by Turkey

this will NOT work in the real world

how you going to give the Kurds access to OIL?

there is NO solution that doesn't involve a peacekeeping force staying there for DECADES

how many troops are still in former Yugoslav provinces?

it's a WWIII scenario, waiting to happen

as soon as we leave, THAT's when we'll start hearing about all those WMDs he supposedly had....they'll be there, but will have been brought IN by the terrorists Saddam had kept OUT

isn't that special?

[Cartooner]

78. I DON'T BUY THE DOOM AND GLOOM result SCENARIO

I'm sorry, but I realize there are always WWIII scenario possibilities.

WITH OR WITHOUT IRAQ.

But I don't buy it. WITH BUSH THERE, Turkish Kurds might try that. With KERRY there I believe he can solve it.

I think you're looking at the worst possible outcome. I don't buy it.

[buycitgo]

80. I have a tendency to do that, it's true.......BUT

did you envision things going this BADLY this FAST, even under Bush?

I'm not just talking Iraq...I'm talking economy, environment, judiciary, PATRIOT Act I and II, media concentration, unchecked corporate corruption, you name it........everything this reverse Midas has done has been much worse than I thought it could possibly be, and I knew he was going to be REAL bad...the worst president EVER, I predicted, before he was installed, even

[seabeyond]

82. things going this BADLY this FAST

bah ha ha ha, why i would find this funny i dont know. maybe it is a smart ass funny. THIS badly, well couldnt predict 9/11 and all that has come out of it. but after two years of bush and him going into iraq and seeing the looting allowed then the halliburton taking over. yes i saw this war go this badly this fast. iraqi'a did give us a year grace to put things in order. we blew that abd they blew up.

it is extraordinary how BAD bush is. you are right. i dont think we could have another person in there that could clearly show us all the wrongs so obviously.

but having him as governor in texas and having a brother (43 sittin in prison) with exactly his character and personality, i knew it was going to be bad

[buycitgo]

84. exactly.........anybody who read Molly Ivins while that cretin

was governor, and followed the stuff available from 1999 on (that's when I started reading up on him....I got my computer then), was well aware of what he did to Texas: vetoing the CHIPS program, then taking credit for it, ruining the educational system, raising taxes on the middle class, while lowering property taxes on the rich, letting his cronies take over the UofTexas investment system, allowing polluters to write the pollution laws, etc

it was a total blueprint for what has been done now

he's ALWAYS been a puppet, ever since he went into business for "himself"

he's only been where he was because of his BFEE connections; he's to fricking LAZY to have a hand in anything

he's the apotheosis of a DAUPHIN

[Cartooner]

83. YUP, YUP... I predicted that too... when I heard him debate GORE

But, I think a KERRY regime CAN SOLVE MANY PROBLEMS with seeking to make friends in the world... BUSH'S INABILITY to do that has caused MUCH OF OUR CURRENT WOES.

The ABSOLUTELY necessary thing at this juncture is to make KERRY'S election as LIKELY as possible.

By the way, just between you and me, I have a hunch KERRY will win by a "young" landslide. ... After all look what a HUNCH did for Quasi Modo

THE BELLS!! THE BELLS!!!!

[buycitgo]

85. heh...Oh Mary, Oh Martha. Oh, Mary, ring them bells

I hear archangels, a' rockin Jerusalem

I hear archangels, a' ringin them bells!

I hope you're right

really do

there's another component, though, and one that I've started many threads about here: the single, nonvoting female

stan greenberg has been all over this, and it's gotten some minor media play, but it petered out

maybe I have a thread left in bookmark

[Cartooner]

94. Heya, Citgo.. YOU REALLY know how to generate a discussion...lol

WOW... is my comment...

Lots of ideas here. and LOTS of participation... good for the SITE ...

GOOD JOB!!!

[buycitgo]

95. not me....it's the OUTRAGEOUS story

I start threads all the time, and have a RPT of, like, four, I'd say

ALL of my topics, to me, are of the utmost importance, like THIS one, heh

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=833444

[seaglass]

101. What specialized knowledge of the Kurds in Iraq, Turkey and

Syria do you have that you can dismiss this outcome?

You don't have to buy anything but it might give your opinion some weight if you had something to actually back it up.

[hexola]

55. I wonder if Bush STOLE Kerry's plan?

This sounds like one-up-man-ship...like Rove got wind of the Kerry was plan and made it his own. How can Kerry compete...?

Bush has just set the agenda (election-wise)for Iraq.

[kentuck]

58. I was just going to post that possibility...

And that is a very good possibility. They have intercepted Kerry's speech on Iraq and beat him to the punch???

[buycitgo]

61. there is NO plan that can make sense, because things are changing

too fast

they don't know what's going to happen from one day to the next, so only the most general principles can apply, and they'll be made fun of, if Kerry is unwise enough to start pronouncing

there isn't any answer to this. how can there be, with the terrorists/insurgents/anarchists waiting til we either leave or start engaging in force protection ONLY, which we're going to try to do as much of as possible for the next six weeks, to hold down US casualties

the problem for the monkeyboy is that the Iraqia we're training, for the most part, WILL NOT FIGHT!

therefore, the onus MUST be switched to Bush's puppetmasters

FORCE them to tell the truth...that's what Kerry must keep saying...

make THEM take responsibility for this, not him

[hexola]

66. It doesnt have to make sense...just sound good.

Bush doesn't have to run again. Cheney wont be the running in 2008. I think they can say anything.

them...him...it's all Bush.

[buycitgo]

71. couldn't agree more...they DO say anything....certain people in the

media wring their hands, in a show of mock offense, but they're rePEATING the lie at the same time

that's all they CARE about is repetition

doesn't matter if it's true or not: the message, like a bad commercial jingle, is OUT there. it's all that matters

that's why the swiftboat lies were so effective....the truth didn't put its pants on for a couple weeks, and, by then, the damage had been done, as effectively as the Willie Horton ad

if Kerry loses, that will be seen as the turning point

[unfrigginreal]

67. Pure Bullshit

A planted story with no merit to keep war-weary Republicans in the Bush column. Novak was the perfect choice.

[BootinUp]

73. Thinking about this...

The dems should launch a blistering attack on Bush and put pressure on him for the impending failure. The Kerry solution is still to use a broader coalition of allies probably under the leadership of the UN Security Council. Reconstruction decisions and contracts are opened up. All the things Bush didn't want to do that led to the failure after the initial invasion success.

So basically we move toward more UN assistance. We don't cut and run without putting much more effort into getting other countries involved. Thats the pitch. And it is still accomplished "during" the first term.

The alternative is a worse terrorist haven then afghanistan. THAT is the charge to make.

[unfrigginreal]

81. I agree

Kerry should point out that we've already been through the pains of a war waged on questionable political judgements, Vietnam, and cannot afford to make the same mistake in Iraq. This President has followed the advice of political appointees rather than the advice experienced military leaders and there's no reason to believe that his approach to a rapidly deteriorating situation in Iraq will change.

[Cartooner]

74. NO perfect solution; not even a GOOD one...but there IS a solution.

I agree with you BUY ...

BUT...

ONE OVER-RIDING IMPORTANT THING HERE IS THAT KERRY WIN THIS THING!!!
THAT'S THE BEST CHANCE FOR A SOLUTION.

AND the way for him to win is to SELL the American people on his LEADERSHIP ability.

AND THE ONLY WAY TO DO THAT IS TO LEAD... be FIRST.

He can say BUSH HAS NO PLAN ... (THAT WOULD BE THE TRUTH)

BUT THEN, EVERYONE WILL want to know WHAT IS KERRY'S plan...

THAT'S WHY HE MUST HAVE ONE...AN EXIT PLAN.

Failing that... Bush holds the cards.

[buycitgo]

77. he's not doing such a hot job of being a leader at this point

I'm disappointed in what he's shown....lots of surrogates have come up with some helpful advice....I've read much here, and heard some good stuff on TV/Radio recently. Sid Blumenthal said something very persuasive the other day....forgot what it was already.

But.....there is no good outcome for Iraq, or the world

Anything positive that can be done is obviously going to be accomplished under the aegis of a new administration

but it's going to be a MUCH worse mess than Clinton took over, after TWELVE years of wingnut mismanagement. he didn't have this hell to put out; just a broken economy.

Kerry has a MUCH worse economy on numerous fronts; something he won't be able to deal with effectively because of .......IRAQ!

is there any room on the space station?

[John_H]

86. THEY'RE BETTING THE DEMS WILL IGNORE THIS

"Oh Dear, we can't respond. People may believe it. They'll say we're doing what lots of dems want." Now, it's true, if some of our surrogates had been screaming "october surprise" our jobs would be a lot easier, but we should have ads in the can tomorrow with the phrases "stay the course," "the biggest flip flop ever", and "let our troops die in vain? and "every time anyone in the republican paryt said "cut and run"

[unfrigginreal]

87. Odds are that they're right

[buycitgo]

88. well, this just came out, so let's be glass half full on this

they haven't had much of a chance to respond yet

be interesting to see how this develops

we are HERE, though, at the very beginning of this story, and it's important that it gets some very strong LEGS, cause you're absolutely right, as are otheres that this is, indeed, the BIGGEST flip flop ever!

[John_H]

93. You're absolutely right. I actually think they will respond...

I just hope there is not a big debate raging within team kerry right now.

[mmonk]

89. Like Nixon's exit from Vietnam

through Cambodia, we'll probably exit through somebody.

[Cassandra]

90. Coming home or being moved to Iran and Syria?

Why waste time with democracy when there are more countries to destabilize?

[buycitgo]

91. they WANT to, but, unless we give them the draft, they can't

they don't have the troops to replenish the exhaustees who are already over there

EXHAUSTEES!

that's a good one, even if I say so myself

[a new day]

92. trying to preempt Kerry

[johnnyrocket]

96. Novak was always against the war, like Bucanan...

they're protectionist and suspicious of Zionist Israel. It's not too big. What IS big news is Dennis Hastert saying the terrorists want Kerry in, because millions of dolts will believe that nonsense.

[buycitgo]

98. right about Novak/Israel and Hastert

I hope youre wrong about this being a NOT big story

consensus here is that Novak is doing the dirty work, as usual

he really is a shill of the very lowest, most shameless order

amazing the depths to which he'll sink

[Cogito ergo doleo]

100. So many wars; so little time.

What did Wes Clark say-- five wars, or was it seven?

[buycitgo]

103. you think, therefore, you cry....you're sad.....what?

how do you say I think, therefore, I puke?

[arbusto_baboso]

102. Yeah, sure, Shrub has a "secret plan to end the war in Iraq". If you...

believe that, then I've got a bridge you might be interested in buying.

[cthrumatrix]

109. pm kick

[LittleClarkie]

107. We do NOT want Cheney and Rumsfeld in there for a pullout

Remind people that when we pulled out of Vietnam during the Ford Administration, two familiar names were involved: Rumsfeld and Cheney. We do NOT want them in there this time for a Saigon-style cut-and-run retreat.

That is exactly what will happen if we beat feet with these people in office.

I want Kerry in there so badly now I would give my right arm and most of my internal organs to see it happen.

[cthrumatrix]

108. a good reminder

[Southern Patriot]

111. The worm may be turning. n/m

n/m

[buycitgo]

115. so...didn't see this mentioned at all in the news

what about the gasbaggers?

doesn't look like it so far

surprised?

will the story line leak out, though? one of the networks castigated Kerry again tonight for making his four year pullout statement