Robert Fisk: Iran's old guard are poised to crush any hope of revolution

[Jackeens]

Robert Fisk: Iran's old guard are poised to crush any hope of revolution

The West has no right to expect the polls to bring in radical change

All the world wants to know the results of today's presidential election in Iran, not least the Republican Guard supporters of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. But will it make a difference, either to the Iranians or to the rest of the world?

Of course the West wants to be told that this dramatic poll will change Iran's desire for nuclear facilities. Whatever it is, this election is not about nuclear power. It may be about presidential arrogance and stupidity and fear, or about responsible government or unemployment or the economy. But the West should abandon hope of any real change in Iran's nuclear strategy. Mirhossein Mousavi may talk more sense to the Americans – if he wins – but the nuclear facilities will keep functioning. It is all a matter of pride in Iran – where pride is a special quality.

And the thick, dark skin of clerical rule that covers Iran will remain, scratched occasionally perhaps, but unable to bleed or to re-imagine history or to reform a nation which so badly needs the change that only Mousavi, among the candidates, dreams of. Government for and by the dead – symbolised in the continued "supreme leader" ethos that old Ayatollah Khomeini constructed before his death, has effectively sealed off Iran from those human rights which obsess the West.

More: http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/fisk/robert-fisk-irans-old-guard-are-poised-to-crush-any-hope-of-revolution-1703225.html

[BeyondGeography]

1. But their public humiliation alone would be so sweet

and one would expect the seeds of change will eventually lead to progress.

I love Robert Fisk, and he is understandably skeptical, but sometimes a positive outcome is just that.

[grantcart]

2. The people of Tehran know that this is their chance

Also there is a lot of evidence that the clerics think Ahmadinejad is an idiot.

A more likely outcome, IMHO, is that the clerics will quickly embrace Mousavi and then try and get the situation under control.

What they do not want is a reason for people to demonstrate spontaneously.

Also there is not much of a tradition in Iran on troops firing on their own people, which helped them come to power in the first place.

The situation in Iran is somewhat similar to Thailand where a conservative group has support in the provinces but none in the cities. The Reveloutionary Guard, like the 'Red Shirts' in Bangkok will find it very difficult to impose its will in a capital where there is no support.