http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/jun/28/michael-crowley-barack-obama-usaThey say Obama is starting to stumble. The hell he is
Michael Crowley
On Iran, gay marriage and the economy, the president is taking flak. But critics ignore the profound changes he is delivering
It's a handy rule of thumb in Washington: a president's fortunes can be divined by the way the White House press corps treats him. Think of George W Bush. At the height of his powers in 2003, reporters jockeyed for his favour, which he expressed by bestowing nicknames and sharing wisecracks. By the time Iraq and Katrina had ruined his presidency, the same hacks competed to see who could most effectively humiliate the president before a live audience.
So it was an ominous sign for Barack Obama last week when he appeared in the White House for a press conference that was his most uncomfortable to date. Reporters who had thus far treated him with deference and even admiration treated him with something close to disrespect. Obama, as the New York Times put it, "has rarely experienced as combative and contentious an hour on live television as he did on Tuesday afternoon". Had his response to Iran, one asked, been "timid and weak"? Another tweaked the president's "Spock-like language" about healthcare reform. One even grilled an increasingly irritated president about his furtive smoking habits. The treatment left Obama a bit testy. "I got it," he groused. "You're pitching, I'm catching."
Indeed he has been catching - catching flak, that is, from critics on left and right and over both his foreign and domestic agendas. As he approaches the six-month mark of his presidency, his job has become less glamorous and more gruelling. Allies in Congress are restive and for the first time, the whiff of failures and defeats is in the air. Thus the new tone from the White House press corps, which, like animals in the wild, preys on the weak. But don't be fooled by this dark patch. Obama's long-term prospects remain bright.
Start on the domestic front. Here, Obama faces two titanic challenges. The first is the economy. An unexpected spike in jobless claims announced last week doused hopes that the economic downturn had finally reached an inflection point. With unemployment now approaching 10%, higher than the administration had predicted, Republicans are rallying around the argument that Obama's $787bn stimulus bill passed in February isn't working and amounts to a massive, deficit-swelling waste. "With all the spending that's gone on, where are the new jobs?" asked House Republican leader John Boehner. Lately, some of Boehner's colleagues are even fantasising about riding such talk to retake the House of Representatives in the 2010 midterm elections. (The Senate is a steeper climb for Republicans.)
It's true that if the economy fails to recover within the next year, no amount of hope and change can save Obama's presidency. But those 2010 elections, the first real referendum on his performance, are still 16 months away. That leaves plenty of time for the economy to pick up steam. Moreover, polls show that most Americans still blame the economic doldrums on Bush. And while stimulus dollars have been frustratingly slow to be distributed, that will soon change, with the stimulative effect likely to kick in well before the midterms, dashing the hopes of many a Republican candidate.
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It will take luck - and more than a little political skill - for Obama to achieve such stellar results. But he's never wanted for either. It will also take something else, however: the firm support of his fellow Democrats. There are signs that some in Obama's party have studied the polls and the economic figures and may be wondering whether their self-interest may soon diverge from that of the president. But in fact, the Democrats' fate is inextricably tied to Obama's success.
Without him, the party is not particularly popular. These nervous Democrats should remember that moving an agenda as big as Obama's was never going to be easy. But that even in difficult moments like these, his popularity remains durable and his prospects for success are better than they may appear. Perhaps Obama should propose a new motto for his party: Together we stand, divided we fall.