Look how BAD the state poll results vs reality were from 2000

[59millionmorons]

This from a poster at dailykos.com

Below is an analysis of polls over time before the 2000 election.
NOTE THE LARGE SWINGS IN A MATTER OF DAYS, BLUE STATES "TREDING RED" ONLY TO ACTUALLY STAY EXTREMELY BLUE, AND RASMUSSEN'S INCREDIBLY INACCURATE POLLS.

Seems pretty similar to today.

Diaries :: israelfox87's diary ::

NEW JERSEY

June 22, 2000....Al Gore 44%, George Bush 41%

Headline: New Jersey is a Tossup

http://slerp.rutgers.edu/retrieve.php?id=126-3

September 5, 2000...Al Gore 39%, George Bush 32%

October 17, 2000....Al Gore 46%, George Bush 38%

Headline...Gore's lead trimmed, but still solid going into final debate

http://slerp.rutgers.edu/retrieve.php?id=128-1

Gore won New Jersey by 16 percent

-----------------------------------------------

ARIZONA

March 30, 2000...George Bush 41%, Al Gore 37%

BUSH AND GORE IN TIGHT RACE IN ARIZONA

http://www.kaet.asu.edu/horizon/poll/2000/3-30-00.htm

May 24, 2000...George Bush 45%, Al Gore 31%

BUSH "PULLS AHEAD" OF GORE

September 20...Al Gore 46%, George Bush 36%

GORE LEADS BUSH IN ARIZONA

http://www.kaet.asu.edu/horizon/poll/2000/9-20-00.htm

Bush won Arizona by 5.5 percent

----------------------------------------------

OREGON

September 5, 2000...Gore 42%, Bush 41%

September 20, 2000....Gore 45%, Bush 39%

September 20, 2000....Bush 45%, Gore 36%

October 21...Bush 43%, Gore 38%

Gore won by .4 percent

-------------------------------------------
PENNSYLVANIA

October 4...Bush 43%, Gore 41%

October 9...Gore 42%, Bush 36%

October 18...Bush 43%, Gore 42%

Gore won by 4 percent

---------------------------------------------
WISCONSIN

September 20, 2000...Gore 43%, Bush 38%

October 14, 2000...Bush 44%, 38%

Gore won by .18

-----------------------------------------------
WASHINGTON

September 12...Gore 45%, Bush 41%

September 21...Gore 44%, Bush 37%

October 12...Bush 47%, Gore 36%

Gore won by 6

--------------------------------------------
CALIFORNIA

September 20...Gore 50%, Bush 38%

October 10...Gore 45%, Bush 39%

October 14...Gore 44%, Bush 40%

Gore won by 12

Link for all without one...
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Polls/polls-BATTLE.html

[MissouriTeacher]

1. Thanks

for that information.

You know, given the unreliability of polls these days, I'm really beginning to think that any sort of Bush lead within the margin of error is actually a lead for Kerry.

I just think the current polling methods are far more likely to attract conservative voters one way or the other.

[9119495]

2. Nice work--Let us keep perspective. n/t

[cthrumatrix]

13. kick for the truth about rigged polls

[robbedvoter]

3. NY - Gore was ahead by 25 pts, but after 911, W is close?

Sorry, but this is one whopper that from where I sit won't wash.
Last time, NY-ers barely showed to vote, lots went for Nader.... This time, there'll be unprecedented numbers! (and NOT for W)
people here get it that 9/11 is not a good thing.

[John_H]

4. So will our talkers bring this up when "poll whacked" by whores?

Whore will they say what they're saying now "The President got a bounce from his convention."

[John_H]

5. And don't forget WI

Wisconsin

WTMJ-TV 9/18-9/20 38% 43% Gore + 5
Rasmussen 10/14 44% 38% Bush +6
Harris Interactive 10/18-10/21 49% 40% Bush +9

Gore won by 6000 votes.

[cthrumatrix]

15. kick so that we all know the cooked polls

[quaoar]

6. The problem with these state polls

is that candidates decide whether to continue running ads or to concede the state based on them. Gore gave up on Ohio late in the 2000 campaign. If he hadn't, he might have had a good shot at it.

[pmbryant]

7. This is the must read thread of the day.

I've certainly always known state polls are unreliable. (National polls, too, but there are a lot more of them, so it is easier to figure out which ones are the ouliers.) But seeing such a dramatic demonstration is extremely informative, nonetheless.

Thanks for posting this.

--Peter

[59millionmorons]

8. Polls are worthless

Go vote.

[cthrumatrix]

9. case closed

[Demi_Babe]

10. Thank you...very interesting

[chaumont58]

11. this is a good thread to read because we need to understand that

a presidential election is more a series of state campaigns than one national campaign. The results from the 2000 elections proved that beyond a shadow of a doubt.

[cthrumatrix]

12. keep this kicked

[pmbryant]

14. Kick

:kick:

[Nightjock]

16. Thank You

maybe that will shut up the whiners