My Analysis of Rasmussen Electoral College Polls

[louis c]

Rasmussen tracking and weekly update data is what I am following during this election. I realize that polling data can be, and has been, notoriously unreliable in many cases. I know the danger of following polls, in being swept up in undeserved euphoria, or great depression, depending on the outcome.

With this understanding, I not only keep abreast of the issues in this election, but I enjoy the horse race, also.

I know that the Kerry and Bush campaigns have very accurate, internal, tracking polls. They, however, do not share those numbers with me. So, the next best thing, for me, is Rasmussen. In his national, three day tracking polls, he interviews 1,000 voters a day. That's a sampling of 3,000 a report. In his daily state seven day rolling averages, he uses 500 a day. That's 3,500 in each report. In addition, he drops a day worth of data to update and add the most recent day. Maybe we can fault his methods, but you can't fault the volume.

Having bored you with why I follow Rasmussen, here is my analysis of the all important Electoral college numbers, including Premium Information. Right now Rasmussen has Bush with 213 Electoral College votes, Kerry with 189, and 136 are in the toss-up category. Colorado(9), Iowa(7), Nevada(5), and Pennsylvania(21) all have Bush up by a single point. Minnesota(10) has Kerry up by one, and New Mexico(5) tied. Also, Kerry is ahead in New Jersey (15) by four and Oregon(7) by three. So, if Kerry can pick up over one point in each state, just a single point, mind you, he adds 79 electoral votes, and is tied with bush at 268 each.

If Kerry can pick up just over two points in each state, we can add Florida(27) and Wisconsin(10) to his column and he has a comfortable 305 Electoral votes. If Kerry can increase by just over 3 points in each state, we can add Ohio(20), and we are at an Electoral landslide of 325.

I point out these numbers for a reason. Many here at DU have been discouraged by the polls. I actually am encouraged. This has been a rough few weeks for the Kerry campaign, but it is obvious to me that a small increase in in our favor puts us in the driver's seat, and there are three debates coming up. I like our chances, and I for one will keep working hard, especially in New Hampshire, which, by the way, is now blue.

Electoral Vote break down, you may need Premium access,

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/election_2004.htm

Home Page, free of charge

http://www.rasmussenreports.com

[theKnave]

1. Interesting

here's another EV breakdown: http://www.electoral-vote.com/ that shows fewer states as a tossup. 3 are tied, 8 are close (either way). But, it's included the latest Zogby state poll results.

[9119495]

5. By e-v.com's numbers, simply grabbing

the "leaning Kerry" states plus NJ and MD (which we are almost sure to get) and Arkansas, and we win!

[theKnave]

6. Tennessee will be close

as well. W. TN is heavily for the Dems while E. TN is more for the rePukes. And the center is mixed. It's really quite odd... the state legislature is controlled by Democrats, and there is a Dem. Governor, and I believe that there are House of Reps from TN with a (D) after their name than a (R), yet both senators are rePukes, and the state went to Bush.

[redstateblues]

8. There was a R Gov in 00- Dem Gov. elected in 02

Phil Bredesen, a Mass liberal, won the governor's seat by getting disaffected Rs to cross over- there is hope

[louis c]

7. kick

[sniffa]

2. thank you for your work in NH

what do you do up there?

[louis c]

4. I am a member of the Greater Boston Labor Council,

We canvass Union households to register all family members who support Kerry in NH. In addition, I am the President of my Local of 240 members, 35 come from New Hampshire.

I probably get up there a couple of times a month, but do a lot of phone work to Union households.

It is a coordinated effort by one of the strongest labor movements in America, the Massachusetts AFL-CIO.

[louis c]

3. kick