I've been following this site:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/sep/sep20.htmlYesterday's
Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 211 Bush 327
Strong Kerry (110)
Weak Kerry (63)
Barely Kerry (38)
Exactly tied (0)
Barely Bush (90)
Weak Bush (67)
Strong Bush (170)
Today's
Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 239 Bush 256
Strong Kerry (117)
Weak Kerry (66)
Barely Kerry (56)
Exactly tied (43)
Barely Bush (49)
Weak Bush (43)
Strong Bush (164)
Interesting footnotes provided:
News from the Votemaster
Time is running out. While the election is 6 weeks away, the deadline for registering as a voter is almost upon us. In most states it is in less than two weeks. This rapidly approaching deadline is especially important for the 5 million overseas voters who have to send in the registration form by snail mail, although in some states there is now a way to beat the deadline by fax, as described on the Americans abroad page. If you, your family, or your friends are not registered to vote yet, now is the time.
Some voters have a choice where to register. When George Bush picked Dick Cheney as his running mate in 2000, there was the minor matter that Cheney' presence on the ticket might cause Bush to lose Texas' 32 votes in the electoral college and hence the election. Seems the constitution says electors can't vote for both a president and a vice president from their own state. In the spring of 2000, both Bush and Cheney were living in Texas and registered to vote in Texas. Cheney finessed the problem by changing his voter registration to Wyoming, where he had a summer home. This act could be considered creative voter registration because by no stretch of the imagination did Dick Cheney suddenly become a resident of Wyoming. He continued to live in Texas where he was running Halliburton, the oil services company that continued to pay him a salary even while he was vice president of the United States. The latter job doesn't pay very well--only $202,900 per year--so a bit on the side is always helpful. That Halliburton received a $7 billion no-bid contract to help rebuild Iraq's oil industry is mere coincidence.
But even if you are not Dick Cheney, Cheney's first law of voter registration ("Register where it helps most") may apply to you. In particular, college students studying in a swing state may be able to choose choose between their parents' address and their college address. If a student has no plans to ever live with his or her parents again, a good case can be made that the student no longer lives in the parent's state and can thus register in the college's state. Students living in a dorm and paying out-of-state tuition have a weak case, but can argue that they are planning to run for vice president some day. Students living off campus or paying in-state tuition have a strong case. If you are from a solid state and are studying in a swing state (or vice versa), or have a child, grandchild, friend, or neighbor in this category, please see Swing State Voter Project for details. Also, if you are a snowbird and live for 6 months in the North and 6 months in Florida where you own or rent a house or condo, register in Florida. But hurry. Being registered in two states is illegal, so if you register in a new state, be sure to cancel the old one. If George Orwell were alive now, he would say "All votes are equal but some votes are more equal."
There are seven new polls today. In Florida Bush's lead has dropped to 1%. But the strangest result is in New Hampshire, where the Rasmussen 7-day tracking poll puts Kerry ahead by 6% again.
The Mason-Dixon poll of Sept. 13-15 giving Bush a 9% lead was just way off.
A 15% change in two days in a small homogeneous state in the absence of any major news is unthinkable.
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