Good news and bad news from electoral-vote.com

[UrbScotty]

Let's get the bad news out of the way first.

New York: Kerry 48% Bush 40% (Gore won 60-35%)

Maryland: Kerry 48% Bush 48% (Gore won 57-40%)

:wtf:

The good news:

[FlaIndie]

1. EV.com is flawed

They only go with the newest poll to determine who wins the state, so outliers often are shown for weeks at a time. If you think Smirk boy will win NJ, for example (as they show), I got some prime land here in Florida to sell you.

Not to mention they go with 1-pt. leads and calculate the state to the person's EVotes, though that is well within the margin of error.

Fact is, neither candidate has more than 220 or so EVotes to their names right now. The toss-up states simply cannot be called, because every other poll shows one or the other winning.

You simply cannot call Florida, Colorodo, Nevada, Wisconsin, or Arkansas because neither candidate has had a lead beyond the MoE the past few months.

[featherman]

6. Actually the map is pretty much correct today if you

make the intelligent adjustments.

What's the problem? The site author states that FOR HIS SITE, the latest poll wins. That's his formula and I find it useful. That is the information he is providing... not some prediction about how it will turn out. Get a grip, folks... they are just polls, not infallible Papal pronouncements...all are flawed and some way more flawed than others. They can only be read and given value (or dimissed) in the context of historical voting patterns and voter identification trends.

Add MD and NJ back to Kerry, both of which are slam dunks. (Those two listed polls are obviously very bogus. Please take note of who they are because those organizations are NEVER to be trusted on the basis of this alone. They are just insulting everybody's intelligence).

That adjustment leaves Kerry with his base of 264 which is about where he is.

[JPJones]

2. Keep your eye on the ball, not the scoreboard.

That site is a waste of time.

[I_like_chicken]

3. yes it is...

but I check it everyday, and probably will continue doing so till the end of the election.

Why?

because I can't help myself.

[ogradda]

5. you're not alone

ogradda <------ poll junkie :)

[abrock]

4. See here.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=850700&mesg_id=850700

[RichardRay]

7. EV.com is NOT flawed

at least not any more than any other polling site.

It requires a user to understand the method he uses and to read his text describing what polls have been added and what effect they have. As long as his results are consistent with his method I have no problem with what he reports - and he is very consistent. Becoming inconsistent in an effort to 'correct' for 'anomalous' results is a slippery path.

Like any forecasting model it also requires that the users revisit it regularly and pay attention to what the model is doing and whether it makes sense or not. When I see it swing wildly without some piece of news to help make sense of it I know to go looking for the piece of data that's driving the swing and make a judgement about the provenance of the new input.

It's just a poll, or a poll of polls, sort of. If he tells me something I don't like I can ignore him, but it's usually worthwhile to find out where it came from. That makes him useful, at least to me.

Richard Ray - Jackson Hole, WY

[Clinton Crusader]

8. If * wins NY, Im moving

to Nova Scotia.

WHO are they polling? The Upper East Side ONLY? East Hampton residents who live on cul de sacs?? Come on! I live here, I see what people want and hear it. NO WAY he wins NY, just NO WAY.

:eyes:
:kick:

[dennis4868]

9. Bush will win Maryland....

like my dog will sing the national anthem tonight...NO FREAKIN WAY! I see Kerry bumper stickers everywhere, nothing for Bush, and people here in Maryland are mad as hell what is going on in Iraq!

[Meshuga]

10. I live in Maryland and there is no way this poll is correct.

Kerry support here is HUGE with the bumper stickers, t-shirts, signs, etc.

[dennis4868]

11. i beat you to it.....

:toast:

[Meshuga]

12. Damn you!

You are fast! :-)

Yep. This is Kerry country and I guarantee a Kerry win here in Maryland!