How undecided voters affect Kerry's chances.

[TruthIsAll]

As of today, based on the latest state polls, Kerry has a 69% probability of winning the election with 281 EV. This assumes that he gets 3 of 5 (60%) undecided voters. He would get 50.2% of the popular vote under this scenario.

But what if Kerry got 3 of 4 (75%) undecided? His probability of winning would jump to 89%, with 298 EV and 51.2% of the vote.

Remember, these numbers are based on today's polls. Kerry is slightly BEHIND in the popular vote.

Imagine what his chances will be when he pulls ahead?

STATE MODEL
MONTE CARLO SIMULATION
5000 Election Trials

Undecided
Pct to Kerry 50% 55% 60% 67% 75%

Pop.Vote % 49.6 49.9 50.2 50.7 51.2
Win Prob % 48.7 58.7 69.1 80.2 89.3
Average EV 268 274 281 289 298

This chart shows the story.

[olddem43]

1. Now that sounds better than the last couple of days.

Let's hope it gets better every day until Nov. 2.

[coloradodem2005]

2. Kerry said that he hoped that the difference between him and Bush...

...would not be double digits until Kerry was ahead by double digits.