Did all polls change proportion of Dems vs GOPers over the last 2 months?

[dumpster_baby]

THe bone of contrntion with respect to polls is the proportion of Democrats sampled versus Republicans. A reason for the wide disparity in RECENT polls is that many of the polls that showed Bush pulling way ahead sampled more Republicans than Democrats.

However, what proportion of Republicans vs Democrats did those same polls have a month ago or so when KERRY was ahead? Did those same polls have the same proportion of Dems and GOPs are the ones that showed bush way ahead, or did they have the same proportion as the ones that show a even race (e.g., Zogby)???

And if the proportion of Dems and GOP did change, is there some logical disconnect there?

I find it strange that the only news story that explained any of the reasoning behind these polls was the Guardian story from yesterday, the Guardian newspaper being a well respected, left leaning paper from England.

THe Guardian story on the polls was posted here yesterday ( http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=844319&mesg_id=844319 )
What the hell is going on here? This is indeed, as the Guardian pointed out, a real controversy, one that goes right to the heart of the matter? Why are the American newspapers NOT reporting more on the methodology of these polls? Why no detail on the reasoning? Why no analysis of the methodology from the past month or two, back when Kerry was in the lead?

I am starting to get the same feeling here about the methodology and the media reporting of it, as I did when I observed the peculiar behavior of the media following the Sept 9-11 bombings, and during the run up to the Iraq war. When I saw what was happening, I knew that Chomsky was right about the media. This poll methodology NON-story may provide another possible revelation about the media and its relation to political power over the populace.....

[OHdem10]

1. It has always been the case that

"Likely voters" Polls skew Republican.This was adopted during Nixon ADM. and exists until this very minute. Over the years they established "who can be depended on to get up and go to the polls year in year out". It was found the more edcated and the morewealthy vote because they know they have a stake in what goes on in the government. Therefore you end up with a poll that is skewed Republican.

These likely voter polls are used to manipulate the electorate.
They show these polls over and over . Bush is ahead --Bush is ahead.
To the public not as sophkisticated and or educated--there is a tendency called the bandwagon effect. Average people like to be with a winner-- if it is football game, horse race or what have you
Seeing thse likely voter polls influences a lot of people to respond when they are polled. they go with the winner.

Likely voter Polls are a self-fulfilling prophesy. The Media decides early on which horse they are riding and play these polls to bring about the result. This year They have chosen Bush.

The Grassroots and getting our people to the polls on election day is our main prayer. Even Imus who is with Kerry said today. The Newspeople and Media who count have written Kerry off.

This tells us we should not pay one bit of attention to the Media--work every nook and cranny of this country and do what the Republicans did a few years back. Remember how angry the Media were when the Republicanss outdid them in 94.
Jennings said-- "America acted like a groupt of spoiled brats"
He said this on the air. In other words the country did not follow their game of manipulation with Likely Voter Polls. The Republicans took over the Hkouse--it was a shocker.

We have to learn from the Republicns.They were up against the Media back then. The Republicans now have power over the Media and we have to prove we have power--number of voters w get out to the polls.
The Republicans get their people to the polls--LIKELY VOTERS are more
Republican than Democrat.

[flpoljunkie]

2. Exit polling in 1996 and 2000 showed a 4 point Democratic turnout edge.

http://www.emergingdemocraticmajorityweblog.com/donkeyrising/archives/000688.php

If the CBS and Pew surveys are adjusted to reflect comparable numbers of Republicans and Democrats, their results would have been virtually identical.

Indeed that's precisely what liberal polling analyst Ruy Teixeira did on his Web log, called Emerging Democratic Majority. As the New York Times report of the poll carried the headline "Bush Opens Lead," Mr. Teixeira's blog declared, "CBS News/New York Times poll has it close to even."

...Mr. Teixeira argues that the Democratic edge Mr. Kohut found is realistic, since exit polls from the 1996 and 2000 campaigns indicated that in both cases four percentage points more Democrats than Republicans showed up to vote. Slightly more self-described Democrats than Republicans voted in the 1984, 1988 and 1992 elections as well.