ARG poll: Florida 46-45 (Kerry) Wisconsin 46-46, Pa 47-46 (Kerry)

[WI_DEM]

American Research Group is now out with their national poll from all 50 states. Nationally, Bush leads 47-46, but many key states are toss ups.

For full results:
http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/

West Virginia is tied 46-46
Ohio is close 48-46 for Bush
Tennessee 50-43 Bush
Virginia 49-43 Bush
Illinois 49-43 Kerry
Minnesota 47-45 Kerry
Arkansas 48-45 Bush
North Carolina 49-44 Bush

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

1. I said it when the polls are bad, I'll say it when they're good.

Please put the poll down and slowly back away! Thank you!

[lefthandedskyhook]

19. Yes, all polls have inherent problems

Even the most objective polls lag several days behind and cannot normalize for unforeseen trends in participation.

[cthrumatrix]

25. kick

[ewagner]

2. Wisconsin will go Kerry

What I'm seeing up here is amazing.

We can't keep yard signs in stock.

The polls showing Bush* with a 4-5 point lead don't reflect what we're seeing "on the ground" in Central WI.

and our secret weapons (Syballa and Goddess) are pounding the pavement every day.......

[WI_DEM]

4. I agree, we will win the state

Kerry doing debate prep in Spring Green is a great idea too.

[xyboymil]

8. Im also from Wisconsin, Kerry has the advantage here...

The Zogby poll, probably the most comprhensive and realistic, has Kerry ahead in WI.

I have also heard that Wisconsin newly registered voters is up 100,000 compared to 2000. County clerks can't keep up with all the new registrations.

Young people will be going for Kerry, and that is who many of the newly registered voters are. :toast:

[Cha]

13. Why is Wisconsin so smart and Pennsylvania is

be so regressive?

[JI7]

3. ARG and Zogby are 2 that i view as having a pretty good track record

i'm not sure how arg was in 2000 but it was pretty much in line with actual results during the primary.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. Zogby Was Better Than ARG In 00....

ARG had Gore up in at least two southern states that he lost in 00 in their final pre-election poll-TN and WV....

[Cha]

15. Just sayin'..maybe there was some funny stuff

goin' on with the voting there?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. In Florida...

Nad(i)r is a pesky lil fella...


toothache of a man....

[cthrumatrix]

22. less will vote for him than 2000

[pmbryant]

6. Apparently, last time around, ARG state polls were moderately accurate

See Ruy Teixeira, quoting Alam Abramowitz's analysis: http://www.emergingdemocraticmajorityweblog.com/donkeyrising/archives/000692.php

The ARG 50-state poll, done well before Election Day, provided to be a much more reliable predictor of the actual results of the 2000 presidential election than the Gallup tracking poll which gyrated wildly in the weeks leading up to the election, sometimes showing sizeable leads for Bush, sometimes showing sizeable leads for Gore, and sometimes showing a close race.

Reading further into Abramowitz's comments, I am not as impressed by ARG's performance in 2000. Still, it was more accurate than most. Take that for what it's worth.

Peter

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. He Mentions A Sept. Poll...

I thought ARG did a state by state poll much closer to the election.

[pmbryant]

10. Don't know if they did that or not

But this is a September poll, too, so at least it's comparing apples with apples.

:shrug:

Peter

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. What Good Is A September Poll When The Race Is In November?

nt

[pmbryant]

14. That's why it's interesting that ARG was relatively accurate in 2000

But still, I don't find that 2000 performance terribly impressive. Gallup was a joke in 2000 (and appears to be again this year), so ARG doing better than them is hardly saying much.

--Peter

[DemocratSinceBirth]

17. I'll Be More Interested In The Final Pre -election Polls...

but I am grateful for snapshots of the race....


I would love to see Gallup totally discredited and consigned to the ashheap of junk poll history....


F--k Gallup and their Republican bias....

[cthrumatrix]

12. the Florida message on healhcare is a HUGE success.

[RobertSeattle]

16. And if you don't like the EV results, wait 15 minutes

They'll change - this crap is nerve racking - no wonder Kerry said he's stopped looking at them.

[Polemonium]

18. If Dems show up to vote, polls don't matter

Fact: we outnumber the bastards. Help get someone to vote in November, or several someones.

[cthrumatrix]

20. bingo..bingo..bingo

[ewagner]

21. True

We vote = We win!

[sonicx]

23. The close race means kerry will probably win

if it stays close and undecideds have't pledged for bush yet (after 4 years of his crap), they probably aren't going to anytime soon.

[Radical Activist]

24. Arkansas still within the margin of error

It has been for months.