Media relying on flawed polls: Gallup and CBS/NYT skewed

[Nicholas_J]

Media relying on flawed polls: Gallup and CBS/NYT skewed toward Republicans



Five new national polls give two very different pictures of the presidential race. Three polls show an extremely close race; two show sizable Bush leads. While some members of the media have pointed out potential methodological reasons for this disparity, one clear explanation has gone largely unreported: both polls that show President George W. Bush with a strong lead oversampled Republicans.

Three polls, conducted by The Pew Research Center for People and the Press (September 11-14), Harris Interactive (September 9-13), and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (September 12-14) all found Senator John Kerry and Bush either within one point of each other or tied among likely voters. A Gallup poll conducted September 13-15 found Bush leading Kerry among likely voters by 13 points (55 percent to 42 percent) and by eight points among registered voters (52 percent to 44 percent). A CBS News/New York Times polls (pdf) conducted September 12-16 showed Bush with a nine-point lead among registered voters (50 percent to 41 percent).

The New York Times, the Chicago Tribune, the San Francisco Chronicle, and The Washington Times have cited various differences in the polls' methodology that could account for the disparate results. These differences include: the specific time period during which a poll is conducted; the ways likely voters are identified; and the percentage of undecided voters in a sample.

But the media has largely ignored both Gallup's and the CBS News/New York Times polls' oversampling of Republicans. As author and joint fellow at the Center for American Progress and The Century Foundation Ruy Teixiera explained, these polls include more Republicans in their sample than is representative of the electorate. According to Teixiera, the CBS News/New York Times poll sample included 4 percent more Republicans than Democrats. And Gallup told TheLeftCoaster.com's Steve Soto that it surveyed 7 percent more Republicans than Democrats. Media Matters for America has previously noted that John Zogby, president and CEO of independent polling firm Zogby International, pointed out on September 7 that in the last two presidential elections, Democrats have represented 4 percent to 5 percent more of the electorate than have Republicans:

http://mediamatters.org/items/200409200004

[cthrumatrix]

1. but but.... the WH promised more access if they ran bogus polls

[Vincardog]

2. Duh are you surprised? We know Kerry is kicking Bush

[ollie3]

3. Election still close

It should be obvious that the Gallup poll is biased. Too bad the media have focused on the numbers and not on the methodology. Shouldn't surprise anyone.

Most of the polls, for that matter, under-represent younger voters, especially the "likely voter" polls. When I see record numbers of folks registering, I am encouraged that Kerry is gonna do several points higher than whatever the polls are saying.

[wryter2000]

6. Welcome to DU

:hi:

[newyawker99]

14. Hi ollie3!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[BootinUp]

4. mediamatters is a great site, but you have to be mentally

prepared before you go there.

The material there is enough to drive a man to drink.

[dennis4868]

8. The material there is enough to drive a man to drink.

haha...why do you say that?

[BootinUp]

11. Its gawddamn depressing

what the right wing gets away with. Actually the answer is probably to drink before you go there, lol.

[dennis4868]

12. you are right about that....

[dumpster_baby]

5. what % were Repubs voting in 92 election?

This is puzzling! Maybe the percent of people who represent themselves as GOP or Dem varies according to whether the incumbent President is GOP or Dem??? What were the percentages in the 92 election?

[Nicholas_J]

9. Dunno

But they had to be fairly low because Clinton won with only 43 percent of the vote.

[JohnnyCougar]

15. I started a thread about this...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=837070

If you want, kick it. (I won't kick my own thread.) Get more people around here to bombard the media with e-mails about this. It's the only way they'll listen.

[dennis4868]

7. but but but....

CNN says that Kerry is struggling to get out a message and he did not know the name of the stadium where the Packers play....the polls have to be right!

[depakid]

10. Gallup is ALWAYS biased toward Republicans

The Gallup organization has longtime ties to the Christian right. Their polls have been purposefully skewed in every election or question of so called public interest for longer than I've been alive. Think of them more as an agenda driven PR firm out to shape public opinion rather than any sort of objective firm that seeks to reflect reality.

The truth of the matter is that IS NOT what they're paid to do- and anyone who's ever actually studied them will tell you that.

[Green Mountain Dem]

13. Who cares....

about ALL or ANY of these shitass polls being rammed down our throats by these fuckin corrupt corporate media whores. Answer me this..does anyone know ANYONE who voted Gore in 2000 that will now vote Bush ???? And Gore won the popular vote by how much? New voter registrations are WAYYYYYYYYYY UP and it appears they are by Dems 7 to 1.... JEEZUS....Kerry in a fuckin LANDSLIDE!!! Any Questions????

[cthrumatrix]

16. computer voting....that's my question... i'm pissed about it