THIS SIMPLE ANALYSIS EXPOSES THOSE BOGUS WHORE POLLS

[TruthIsAll]

Gallup and the other whores can't fool us. They weight their
polls heavily Repuke. 

But in 2000, the mix was 39% Dem, 35% Rep, 26% Ind
Gore got 86% of Dem votes, 8% Rep, 45% Ind:

2000 Gore Bush Other Nader 
Dem 39 86 11 0 2 
Rep 35 8 91  0 1 
Ind 26 45 47 1 6 

If Gallup used the 2000 mix, with 80% of Dems, 8% Repubs and
55% of Indies voting for Kerry, Bush would lead by 3%.

	Pct	Dem	Dem %	Rep	Rep %
Dem	39	80%	31.2	20%	7.8
Rep	35	8%	2.8	92%	32.2
Ind	26	55%	14.3	45%	11.7
Total	100		48.3		51.7

But 80% is a TOTALLY UNREALISTIC assumption. 

If 88% of Dems vote for Kerry, he WINS: 52% - 48%!


	Pct	Dem	Dem %	Rep	Rep %
Dem	39	88%	34.32	12%	4.68
Rep	35	10%	3.5	90%	31.5
Ind	26	55%	14.3	45%	11.7

Total	100		52.12		47.88


BUSH IS TOAST

GOT THAT, WOLFIE?

[Cassandra]

1. They are doing this...

to make it easier for Bush* to steal the election. They are keeping it looking close so that if they can manage to steal some votes, it will look more natural. If we could see more accurate polling, we would know that that much of a swing toward Bush wouldn't be possible.

[whistle]

2. Has any DUer taken this professor's course....

<snip>

New York University

Political Campaign Management
Peter J. Feld, Ph.D.
Spring Term 2002

Quantitative Research and Polling



Political polling, together with qualitative techniques such as focus groups, offers political campaigns and candidates a powerful tool to measure public opinion, and test ways to change attitudes. Political polling is also a used heavily by media outlets as part of their coverage of campaigns and issues. But while news organizations are generally interested in learning what the public thinks about candidates and issues, campaigns poll primarily for guidance in designing persuasive messages that will be delivered through TV ads, direct mail, and in the free media – as well as for insights about which voters to target.

Like focus groups, polls allow you to refine messages, rank them according to the strength of their appeal, and plan a communications program for an election or issue advocacy campaign. But unlike focus groups, polls offer the opportunity for precise targeting of voter groups, measurement of where the election stands at the time the poll is taken, as well as projections of where the race is likely to end up, once voters have heard campaign messages from all sides.

<see the course outline here it spends a lot of discussion time it appears on the use of weighting in polls>

http://www.nyu.edu/gsas/dept/politics/pcm/syllabi/G53.1345_feld_s02.html

I really would like to hear from an expert who can discredit or approve of what is going on with polls and the message these polls are delivering to the American people.

[Diogenes2]

3. Thanks for posting this!

They can't fool US, but can they fool everyone else? The media are really ratcheting up this fake poll scheme-- it seems like every day now there is a major story or front page headline about Bush being way out in front. I simply cannot believe for one moment, for instance, that women voters have suddenly moved overwhelmingly in support of Bush-- it doesn't sound right, it doesn't feel right... but they are going to keep on saying it.

[TruthIsAll]

4. Sunday eve kick

tia

[chill_wind]

5. Call them out! Join my Instant Email Campaign to the National Media

I'm new and not allowed to create new threads, so I will do this here.
I've created a mass email campaign on this page:

http://www.citizenspeak.org/campaign/8253.php

I've named this campaign "Slanted Poll Reporting in the Media."
The name for our mailing group is Citizens for Truthful Media.

I've created a letter, but saved the most important space at the very top of the email for your own personal remarks and insights, which will preface the rest. Please take a minute to customize in the personal comments form to ensure greater attention and interest to the recipients.

By "mass email campaign", I mean that your letter will go to a couple hundred recipients in the national media with one click, including network and cable, major newspapers and radio outlets. I also hope there will be some "mass participation" from here :-)I've culled the addresses from this DU link (thank you guys immensely!)and taken many hours and great pains to verify working addresses, eliminating those no longer current or operable for various reasons.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=816939


These are the recipients your comments will go to:

George Stephanopoulos <[e-mail]>;
Nightline <[e-mail]>;
Ted Koppel <[e-mail]>;
Feedback <[e-mail]>;
Kathleen Carroll <[e-mail]>;
Hank Klibanoff <[e-mail]>;
Kenneth Cooper <[e-mail]>;
Tom Oliphant <[e-mail]>;
Alexandra Starr <[e-mail]>;
Dick Meyer <[e-mail]>;
Don Hayner <[e-mail]>;
Byron McCauley <[e-mail]>;
Aaron Brown <[e-mail]>;
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Anderson Cooper 360 <[e-mail]>;
Andrea Koppel <[e-mail]>;
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WQAM <[e-mail]>;
WVLY <[e-mail]>;

Please take action to let them know we are watching and will continue calling them out strongly on this!

Many thanks in advance to all who can help.

[chill_wind]

6. I can't start threads, but if I may kick...

Time is of the essence or something like that.

[Andromeda]

7. Kick!

Good work chil!

[chill_wind]

8. My pleasure

Thanx Andromeda. Just trying to earn my keep a little bit. I may be new as a registered poster, but reading DU has been a very important part of my day for a long time.

Regards,
chill

[DeepModem Mom]

9. Thanks, chill_wind, and welcome to DU! ( nt)

[chill_wind]

10. My Media Blitz revised

(thanx for DU welcome, DM Mom)

I have revised this campaign by breaking it up into several smaller more targeted ones. I did this because I was worried about choking up the outgoing mail server at the host site with such a large all-in-one mailing. So far, so good. Here are the updated links:


MSNBC
http://www.citizenspeak.org/campaign/1455.php

Network News
http://www.citizenspeak.org/campaign/4747.php

Newspapers & Magazines
http://www.citizenspeak.org/campaign/1865.php

Talk Radio
http://www.citizenspeak.org/campaign/1383.php

CNN
http://www.citizenspeak.org/campaign/896.php

Fox News
http://www.citizenspeak.org/campaign/5828.php

Note: The recipients list doesn't open up for the Fox and CNN campaigns, but the lists include network managers, editors and most major personalities at each of the two, as culled from the DU list of national news media contacts. I have a tech support note into the site host about this in the meantime.

It also occurs to me that anyone with an installed email program could alternatively just hit any number of selected targeted emails of their own choice by clicking on any of the addresses in my original message further up in this thread and supplying their own steam. I've created the latter for people in a hurry who want to reach as many contacts as possible right now with just a few clicks.

Whatever works!