USA Today: poll shows Bush clear leader -- question :

[Selwynn]

Bush clear leader in poll - that's the headline.

President Bush has surged to a 13-point lead over Sen. John Kerry among likely voters, a new Gallup Poll shows. The 55%-42% match-up is the first statistically significant edge either candidate has held this year.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&u=/usatoday/20040917/ts_usatoday/bushclearleaderinpoll


My question is this: blah blah, I'm sure I'm going to get 50 posts about how this is lies and bogus and all of that. But, does that even matter? I mean, are we going to deny the effect that all the media has when they say every time we turn around that Bush is winning and Kerry is losing? Basically my feeling is that the media is leaving the impression with the public that Bush is the guy everyone is voting for and "Kerry is a loser."

What difference does it make if the polls are distorted. We all know the effect of the media on the public.

[kikiek]

1. That story is dated Fri. It has been discussed to no end. That isn't new.

[bahrbearian]

5. But it is General Disscussion.

[saracat]

2. You are correct. But posting this stuff only adds to the effect

if you don't offer something positive on how to defeat them. What good does reinforcing a negative do? All this does is make people want to curl up and die! We need to get them up and moving!

[bahrbearian]

3. I wonder how the people in the New Rooms feel

when they report this ,, do they roll their eyes.

[senseandsensibility]

4. I guess it's too much

to expect our Dem representatives to point out the flaws in this poll when they're on the new shows. :( Like many DUers, however, I expect the polls to narrow soon. The Iraq mess is too out of control.

[mbee]

6. They think it will keep a percentage of Dems from showing up at the

polls at all. I have news for them, I think there will be very long lines and people will not take no for an answer. We are all going to vote this time and our votes will be counted!

[opihimoimoi]

7. Its So simple::: America is made up of too many WIMPS... they want

the Real Cheer Leader, someone who will Cheer them on, someone to tell us its OK and we gonna turn the corner. America wants to be LED so much they ignore the real Man in Kerry and go for the Cheerleader?

This, of course, is insane, and the people across the Pond will look at us from now on as ......WEIRD.

Humanity stands on the verge of Greatness only to be stifled by the mediocrity in C average Bush... we will pay the price of poor voting...all Nations who voted poorly in the past, paid a stiff price.

We will be no different....

[chookie]

8. It has a two-fold effect

You're darn right it's having an effect.

It's psychological warfare.

Bush's campaign has NOTHING to do with the man himself, his record, or reality. It is merely salesmanship.

"Most voters choose Bush!" is meant to have the same effect as "Choosy mothers choose Jif," or "9 out of 10 dentists recommend Trident for their patients who chew gum."

So -- it appeals to the herd instinct. The few remaining idiots who are undecided will think "All those people can't be wrong! They must know something I don't know, because I am too busy working myself to death to care for my family to follow the issues very closely."

It also is meant to discourage the opposition. "Aw -- what's the USE!" Bush is going to win no matter what. I'm not going to bother to volunteer for Kerry's campaign."

Just about the only "objective" forum is C-Span. The networks are 100% working for Bush. Not just Fox, but fucking CNN, fucking ABC, and presumably NBC.

PS -- ever notice that Bush's "selling points" are very similar to those used to sell trucks and SUVs? NOT a coincidence. They're all selling the same concept, the same illusion of safety and utter begation of the facts.

[UCLA Dem]

9. Because most of the public does not pay attention to the media anyway.

Thats why. According to political psychologists (Converse, in particular if you want to look up his work), only about 25% of the electorate even pay attention to the news on a somewhat regular basis (e.g., watch the news 2-3 times a week) but even thats only with the TV on, not what people actually pay attention to (this study was done at Yale, I don't remember the researchers). What that means, is that most people are doing other things like folding laundry or taking care of their kids, so most of the info spewed by the media doesn't even register.

Plus, its usually only partisans who follow politics. Independents/undecideds are notoriously the worst about paying attention to political news/world events. Most people (if are going to) usually don't start paying attention to a pres. election until October. Thats when the polls become more stable anyway. Don't be surprised if polls are all over the map until it gets much closer to the election. They really aren't going to have much of an effect at this point.

So, the moral of the story is, while we may watch for these polls all the time, most people don't even pay attention to them. And those that do have already made up their minds and are not going to change. Keep plugging away for Kerry!!!

[Zen Democrat]

10. As of September 1, all polls are "likely voter" polls.

This means only voters who have voted in all of the last 3 or 4 elections are counted.

Polls before September 1 were registered voter polls.

Then factor in the demographics of polling more Republicans than Democrats and you have these kind of results.

Same thing they did in 2000, when the poll consensus was that Bush would win by over 10 percentage points. And he lost.

[Jon8503]

11. I get your point and you are correct ------ Yes this is old news but

USA Today is still putting it out. Every day somewhere on their front page they are saying Bush is the clear leader.

I don't necessarily believe the poll but Selwynn is correct in saying that if the media can create the perception that Bush is running away with this they are helping their man. Unfortunate but true.

I just keep trying to feel positive and keep hoping that Kerry is going to pull something out of this hat. We are getting close to the election now so it is time to pull out all the stops.

I also fail to see how anyone could vote for the incumbent and never remember a election where the issues have not been discussed. It looks like Rove has framed the entire discussion to the way he wants it.

I am beginning to think we have a bunch of schizophrenics in this country too. They say the following:
We don't think we should have gone into Iraq.
We think the war is going badly.
We do not feel safer after 9/11.
We do not think the economy is improving.
And after all that they say Bush would be the
stronger leader.

Go Figure.

[salin]

12. Isn't it gallup that just admitted that they overweight

republican voters in their samples by a significant margin (15-20% depending on whether they are polling 'likely voters' or 'registered voters')... and that they don't account for why they make this assumption of higher republican voter turnout - when it isn't reflected in the actual voting turnout of the last two presidential elections?

I am not sure why this story is getting such limited media coverage. It suggests that gallup and their related polls are based on fraudulent assumptions that create a large bias in the poll.

Yes, your end point is correct. The media seems to be either duped or duplicitious in pushing the Bush big winner Kerry big loser story line.

[jayctravis]

13. something I'm curious about...

I'm a new voter this year, and I haven't been polled.

There's apparently a surge in voter registration. If this wasn't an important election I would think it would be ho-hum like in previous years.

Now I have heard the register to vote commercials on right-wing radio as well, but I'm curious if a good percentages of the new voters aren't doing so to vote for Kerry.

Just a thought.

[UCLA Dem]

14. I've heard that Democrats are out registering voters 2 to1

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. Gallup Did The Same Thing To Gore...

That race was so close they might have discouraged enough potential Gore voters to throw the election to Chimpy....

[Blue_Roses]

16. Gallup is owned by CNN/USA Today

they are gonna have the same misguided results...can't believe em

[quaoar]

17. USA Today's own political reporter dissed this poll

Walter Shapiro of USA Today was on CNN and said that this poll is an outlier.

[Selwynn]

18. Yes, and thank you for reading my post...

..in which I said that wasn't the point at all. It doesn't matter if its accurate, it only matters that the media keeps reporting it.

[quaoar]

19. Shapiro actually sounded embarrassed

when he talked about the poll, especially when the CNN anchor pointed out that his newspaper was playing it up big time.

[Cookie wookie]

20. I think they have to post all these

fraudulent poll numbers with Bush way ahead to justify the way they THINK they will steal the votes through evoting machines with malicious code and through other tactics like the Kathryn Harris antics in Florida.

However, the evoting machines are vulnerable to hackers . . . so not only cheating code is possible to be at play in this election.

[Nicholas_J]

21. The latest Rasmussen Poll

Stated that the electorate beleives that the polls done by the media, rather than independent pollsters, have built in bias and also reiterated Zogby's statements about the media polls getting these results due to sampling more Republicans than Democrats.