Al Hunt answers $1 Million Question: Where do W(rong)'s gains come from ?

[Merlin]

This is from the WSJ last week. A (pricey) subscription is required. But here are some nuggets from it.

Two GOP Polls Suggest Bush May Attract Some Gore Voters

Where are the Gore voters going?

...

Republican polltaker Bill McInturff, relying on surveys involving about 10,000 respondents over the whole year, has a ...profile of Gore voters who're tilting toward Mr. Bush: "They are disproportionately male and veterans, very religious and very downscale in education and income. Reporters don't run into many of these people."

This bloc, maybe 2% to 3% of the electorate, stuck with Mr. Gore last time because they are basically Democrats and felt the economy was doing well, reasons Mr. McInturff, who is one of two pollsters for the Wall Street Journal/NBC News polls.

Why are they leaning Republican this time? "When I read the open-ended answers we get" on surveys, Mr. McInturff replies, "it's 9/11. They think he's been tough on terrorism and that he's a very religious guy." These voters, he says, are centered more in the Midwest, the South and border states.

...

One reason most polls show few 2000 Gore voters opting for Mr. Bush is simple: There's always a group of voters who don't want to admit they voted for a loser. For example, in the latest WSJ/NBC News poll, 45% say they voted for Mr. Bush last time and only 33% said they voted for Mr. Gore. In reality, those two numbers probably are close to even.

[mzmolly]

1. Like I keep saying it's 911 - 911 - 911 - 911 ...

We let Bush capitalize on this failure. Pathetic ain't it?

Guess what else they're gonna find ... Women and minorities will swing over to Bush in larger numbers because of the :scared: terror issue.

[Davis_X_Machina]

2. So what do we do?

Promise to ban gay marriage and promise to put Moslems in internment camps, and Najaf and Fallujah into parking lots just long enough to win in November, and then say 'sorry'?

[Merlin]

3. We take apart Bush's phony image as a "strong and decisive leader"

We've got to expose that rabbit trick for what it is, and rip his image to shreds.

[mzmolly]

4. That's right, and we highlite his massive failure on 911.

:hi:

[cheshire]

5. I'm sorry I find it hard to believe that a person would vote for Gore then

turn around and vote for *. Gore was not as popular, strong, or well liked as Kerry. I think people must lose their minds with fear. Why is it people who live in the least likely places to be hit by terrorist? Baa Baa If people are embarrassed they voted for Gore would it not also be true that so many more would be embarrassed that they voted for such a failure as *?

[OilemFirchen]

6. Stanky!

Everything reeks in this jumble of garbage prose.

"This bloc, maybe 2% to 3% of the electorate, stuck with Mr. Gore last time because they are basically Democrats and felt the economy was doing well, reasons Mr. McInturff, who is one of two pollsters for the Wall Street Journal/NBC News polls."

This one's twisted as shit. If they voted for Gore because they "felt the economy was doing well", then it stands to reason that they would've voted for Bush had they not felt so. Especially since the article suggests that (thanks to Bush's SweeJeebusness) they were otherwise predisposed.

But we're to believe that, now that the economy sucks, these "basically Democrats" are going to vote for... Bush?

Uh huh.

Prolly makes sense to WSJ editorial readers.

"There's always a group of voters who don't want to admit they voted for a loser."

Notwithstanding that Gore won the last election, wouldn't there likely be a group of Bush voters who fit this mold? In fact, the first scenario, using human (as opposed to wingnut) logic tends to suggest just that:

The bloc of "basically Democrats" that went for Gore because the economy was strong will definitely go with Kerry 'cause it no longer is. Moreso, the "basically Republicans" who went with Bush (despite their reservations) for the same reason will go with Kerry or abstain this time around. IOW, there is no statistically significant sample of voters who, otherwise predisposed, will vote for Bush because of the economy.

[cheezus]

7. shocking report: bush leading kerry in red states

typical FUD piece

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. Clinton Was Good At Appealing To Downscale Voters

I think Edwards is too....


It's a shame some people will vote against their own self interest because they are mesmerized by AWOL's faux machismo and piety...

[doni_georgia]

9. Sounds like the Bubba factor to me

These guys voted for Clinton because he seemed like them and they could relate. Most probably didn't love Gore, but he was still from the south, a Baptist, and seemed like their kind of folk. A couple of months ago I posted about southern prejudice against "yankees." It's a very real thing with many people. Choosing Edwards as a running mate, I felt, was necessary to reach out to these folks, but Edwards has to be more visible in the press, and the campaign has to let him get HIS message out in his own way instead of scripting it to match what Kerry is saying. I saw this week that Edwards is returning to some of his old fire. Forget overshadowing Kerry. Edwards and Kerry don't always appeal to the same audience. Use Edwards' strengths at connecting to common people.

[kskiska]

10. I worked with a guy who was a gambler

He couldn't stand to be on the losing end. He would always vote for the candidate he thought was winning. It would just kill him to vote for a loser – even if the loser was the best guy.