2004 Voter Turnout Pool - Place your bets!

[Dem Agog]

I can't wait to see what the voter turnout is in 2004 compared to past years - % Democratic vs. Republican.

What are your guesses for this year? After the Gore fiasco, I think the Democratic party is going to stampede the polls. My guess:

45% Dem
30% Rep

[abrock]

1. No no and no.

Republican turnout will be high, too. Are you saying 45% of RV Dems will turn out, or 45% of TOTAL voters who turnout will be Dem?

[Dem Agog]

2. I'm saying the latter...

Republican turnout MAY be high but I know enough Republicans who are disgusted by the Chimp and who may not vote (or who will vote Kerry or even Nader). I think that more Dems than Republicans will make it to the polls. Far more.

[abrock]

4. I hope so, but remember the scary aspect of this election.

Besides the fact that Bushco will almost certainly rig the polls in key states, we have a very strong, very dangerous, and very fanatical religeous right in America today. They are, in my opinion, every bit as dangerous as fanatical Muslims, because they'd like nothing better than to suspend the constitution, deport pagans/gays/'moral degenerates/potheads/etc to camps, and rename this country The United States of Jesus Christ.

We're in big, big trouble if Chimp wins 2004, legal or not. The first term he was bad, but you haven't seen nothing yet. He acted like a madman with a unanimous mandate from the masses, ignoring the fact he LOST the popular vote, and if he gets a 2nd term (I refuse to believe the American people, even in a religeous furor, are stupid enough to actually re-elect this guy) he won't have another term to worry him. He literally will have nothing to stop him from doing anything he wants to the constitution and country, both at home and abroad.

I might move to Mexico. It might be poor, but at least its (somewhat) free.

[carpetbagger]

3. D39, R35.

No net change. I'd like to think there will be some huge turnout of angry dems (a la 1994), but if the DFL ranks couldn't win one for Wellstone, I don't think you'll see much change.

39/35 isn't terrible. It says there will be enough of a dem pickup to reverse registration advantages after 2001, and enough to compensate for four more years of people who remember the depression dying off.

I think the numbers to watch are still the independents. If they break for Kerry, he wins. This number, more than the D number, is likely to swell.

If voter turnout exceeds 60%, Bush is probably done for.

[phish420]

5. 45% Dem 40% Rep n/t

[tedoll78]

6. 40D ... 35R ...

That's my story, and I'm stickin' to it!

[featherman]

7. I also like 40-35-25

Kerry win by +1.5 is this happens.
42-34-24 would be a Kerry landslide electorally speaking
(we can always hope)