Narrowing of Battleground states

[liberalpragmatist]

We have to be realistic. I realize there are plenty of states in which the POTENTIAL to be competitive exists, but the issue is what can we afford to compete in given the limited resources we have and the limited time. As heartbreaking as it is, at some point we have to realize that we can't try to win EVERY potentially competitive state.

Here's what I see as a list of essential battlegrounds:

WI, MO, FL, OH, PA, MI, CO, NV, WV, AR, MN, IA, VA

Out of these, I think Virginia's least likely, but it's too good an opportunity to pass up. I think NM, Washington, Oregon, New Hampshire, Maine, and New Jersey are largely in the bag, although we may need to put in some effort in those states, just to keep it safe.

I also realize that Arizona is a great target. But I think we have to be realistic. It's possible Kerry could win there, but he's quite far behind by virtually all the polls, and he's never led there in polling this year. NC and TN are also great potential targets and Kerry seems to be closer in both than he is in Arizona, but these states are not as likely to tilt our way. We have to be willing to put these 3 states in a second-tier status. Maybe make a few campaign appearances, extend some resources to GOTV forces and make some effort, but we have to realistic - any of these 3 states will only go to Kerry if there's a clear Kerry landslide.

[WI_DEM]

1. from the polls I've seen Virginia is more doable than W. Va.

[StevieM]

8. Virginia is definitely in play if Kerry decided to go after it

In the past it wasn't. That was then, this is now. We should be going all out to bring that state back into the D column. Ditto for Colorado.

Steve

[Awsi Dooger]

21. Ignore the polls, WV has far greater potential than CO or VA

I may be overly dependent on history and numbers and partisan trends, but WV cannot be downplayed simply because of 2000 and a few recent depressing polls. The state ousted a Republican incumbent governor on the same day it voted for Bush over Gore, and had massive Democratic trends for generations before we somewhat took it for granted last time.

Similarly, we have virtually no chance in CO or VA, regardless of any questionably optimistic polls. Both of those states have trended nearly 10% more Republican than the national average lately and that cannot be overcome in one cycle. VA is inching somewhat our way, but I have seen no evidence of similar in CO.

These states compared to the national popular vote average:

Colorado:
'88: Bush (53.06 - 45.28) = + 0.06% Republican
'92: Clinton (40.13 - 35.87) = + 1.30% Republican
'96: Dole (45.80 - 44.43) = + 9.90% Republican
'00: Bush (50.75 - 42.39) = + 8.87% Republican

Virginia:
'88: Bush (59.74 - 39.23) = + 12.79% Republican
'92: Bush (44.97 - 40.59) = + 9.94% Republican
'96: Dole (47.10 - 45.15) = + 10.48% Republican
'00: Bush (52.47 - 44.44) = + 8.54% Republican

West Virginia:
'88: Dukakis (52.20 - 47.46) = + 12.46% Democrat
'92: Clinton (48.41 - 35.39) = + 7.46% Democrat
'96: Clinton (51.50 - 36.76) = + 6.21% Democrat
'00: Bush (51.92 - 45.59) = + 6.84% Republican

[NMDemDist2]

2. speaking from my own state the bumpersticker wars are 50/50

there are bushies here, but the Kerry folks are extremely motivated to get to the polls

don't count us out and the last two polls here were crap IMHO badly done all together

[DaveinMD]

4. bumper stickers

really mean nothing. They are more about enthusiasm of the activists than actual voter preference.

[liberalpragmatist]

5. I'm not totally counting you out

My point is that Arizona's certainly winnable if Kerry were to focus intently on it. Truth is though, there are more winnable states and we have to spend resources where they are effective.

I think there's certainly the potential for AZ, TN, and NC (my second-tier states) to go to Kerry, but only if he's already winning big nationally.

Arizona, unfortunately, is not gonna be the state that gives Kerry the presidency.

[tedoll78]

3. If I were Kerry..

I'd seek to secure the Gore states and go in for a kill by having Edwards camp-out in Ohio for the last two weeks of the campaign; he plays too well there to not do it.

Meanwhile, I'd have the other 7 Democratic primary opponents swarm the country together for the final weeks.. to charge-up the base.

And finally, I'd slate "a very special episode" where Clinton makes his triumphant return from his recovery period. Clinton, Kerry, and Edwards all on stage together in front of thousands.

[RoyGBiv]

6. Being realistic ...

Gore's campaign advisors were supposedly being realistic when they turned off the juice in Ohio. As far as I know, pretty much everyone now agrees that this was a bad decision.

I'm not suggesting you're wrong with your comments, just that we, or more importantly Kerry's campaign, needs to be careful what it cuts out of the equation in the name of "realism."

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

7. AR will go blue

folks here really like Edwards, and he's been here. They are really angry at the Republican Governor because of the way he's messed up the local school districts. The ACLU is working to get the gay marriage amendment off the ballot, which should help as well. Jan Judy is hammering the only Repuke Conman in the state for his non-supportive stands on veteran's issues, and Blanche Lincoln is a probable shoo in for Senate.

[tedoll78]

9. Now..

if AR goes blue, the Gore States plus New Hampshire will put Kerry at exactly 270EVs.

Very interesting..

[ochazuke]

14. No, I think that wins it

Gore 2000 + NH + AZ = 274 (4 more than needed)

Play with http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/evcalc.php?year=2004 and see for yourself.

[featherman]

10. I suppose it is just the terminology but WI, MN, IA, and PA are not

be considered "battlegrounds" by my definition.

Instead they are DEM base states that may be in danger of getting flipped but which Kerry needs badly to have a chance.

Likewise MO, CO, AR, VA are GOP base states that may be in danger of flipping DEM if Kerry improves his overall favorability over the next 45 days. Bush needs these badly just to have a chance.

Of your list I consider FL, OH, WV, NV the true remaining "battlegrounds" which either candidate could win in an "even" race.

[GeorgeBushytail]

Wisconsin

I just moved to rural WI from Seattle WA. From what I can gather, the "Christian values" of Bush carry a lot of weight here.

I want to go around and hold smelling salts under people's noses - Wake up; remember Wisconsin's progressive history? And then I remember that Joe McCarthy came from this state.

I should study how the Repugs do their voter-suppression tricks. }( I'm in a conservative part of the state so that's my best bet to help Kerry.

I am cheered whenever I see a Kerry lawn sign or bumper sticker.

[RevCheesehead]

13. which county? Some are traditionally "redder" than others

[GeorgeBushytail]

15. Polk County

I'm new in WI and have been hanging mainly with libs, but this area seems to be deep red.

[RevCheesehead]

20. Well, let me be one of the first to welcome you....

:hi:

Our revised state motto:
Welcome to Wisconsin - Smell our Dairy Air

Hang tough, and remember you're not alone.

[liberalpragmatist]

11. I dunno - I would probably add PA to your "battleground" list

I know, it leans somewhat D, but then Ohio leans somewhat R. If you consider Ohio a true tossup than Pa. is a true tossup - demographically the two are quite similar.

What a lot of people don't realize is that Pennsylvania's really more midwestern in many ways than East Coast - certainly Philadelphia's an eastern city, and the Philly suburbs are like east coast suburbs. But west of the Philly area, the state is more midwestern than Eastern - Pittsburgh is clearly a "midWestern City" not an eastern one.

[featherman]

23. as I said it is likely a matter of terminology

States like PA, WI, IA, OR have voted DEM for the past 3-4 elections which is why they are "DEM states that may (or may not) be in danger" on my list rather than battlegrounds. I have recently added NH to the likely DEM equation.
Total: 264 (Gore states + NH)

My list of true "battleground states" would be those who have split their votes one way or the other by +6 or less in the last 4 elections AND will likely will remain too close to call through election day.
NV, WV, FL, OH seem to fit fit this criteria the best. Turnout and energy are big factors here.

The following groups are "GOP states the may or may not be in danger". It would require a broad national surge of +2-3 from current levels for Kerry to be more in play here:

MO, AR, TN, LA, AZ, KY, MT have also split their vote in the past four elections but (for now) are likely leaning GOP for cultural identification reasons. AZ may be trending DEM, the others GOP.

CO could be a battleground but I don't have a feeling for it yet. It has voted GOP for 3 out of 4.

VA and NC are mentioned sometimes but both have voted GOP four straight.

Thanks for your comments

[ochazuke]

12. Largely agree

You're thinking all of New England is Kerry's, right? I wonder why New Mexico seems so deep in the blue after going for Gore by only about 300 votes last time. Is it Hispanic population growth?

Speaking of which, how much of a factor will new immigrant voters be in AZ? (Mexicans plus refugees from California) Are they properly weighted in the AZ polls?

I think it's good news that only five of those on your list of thirteen are Gore states. The front lines are deep into enemy territory. Win all of the Gore states plus New Hampshire and just one of the non-Gore states on your list and the White House goes back into adult hands. (Actually if that one is WV or NV, it's a tie, throwing the election into the House* UNLESS Colorado votes splitting up its electors, in which case Kerry would win. (I'm thinking that that ballot initiative in CO will apply to this year's electoral college.)

*It would be the House elected this November.

[AWhitneyBrown]

16. My opinion: Your post is about right.

But there may come a time to narrow it even further. The next two weeks will tell. When and if that time comes, that time when we are down and everyone thinks we're out, when we're out of money and time and still behind...when everyone has given up except Kerry...Then...

Mich, Minn, Iowa, should be able to take care of themselves.
If Wisconsin goes wobbly, we'll have to let it go if resources are short. Can neither win or lose the election by itself anyway, and the same with Nevada, WV, and Colorado. Missouri is gravy. We're gonna need potatoes. By then nobody will be talking about Arkansas anymore.

Pennsylvania is MUST hold. Top priority. Can NOT win without PA.

If and when that crunch time comes, when our backs are against the wall, pour everything into Florida and Ohio.
And then if it gets even worse, when it's all on the line in the last week...then
Do what Gore did and head for Florida. It was the right thing for him to do, and the election results prove it. He would have won if people had known how to vote better.
Once again, it's going to come down to Florida. And this time it's personal...

What people always forget is that resources are limited. You have to make harder and harder choices if it really gets down to the wire.
Don't get pissed or discouraged if this happens. It's the way to win this thing.

[AWhitneyBrown]

17. One more thing.

Bush thought he had the electoral college won in 2000, that's why he spent the last week in California, trying to boost his popular vote. He'd have been better off going to Texas, where his votes are, but I can see his logic.

[efhmc]

18. Why do the words *bush and logic just not seem to go together?

[AWhitneyBrown]

19. Heh, Heh... (talking about his strategists, actually) n/t

[tedoll78]

22. Do you think..

we have a better shot at Florida than Ohio? I'm a bit distrustful of Florida. That, and it seems like more liberal independent groups are putting an overwhelming focus on Ohio. Get out the vote operations, tv advertising, door-to-door canvassing, voter registration efforts, etc..

I have faith in Iowa, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania. The polls may be close, but I also keep in mind that at his polling peak for this season, the best Bush can do is tie Kerry in these places. Not a good sign for the Chimp. When Bush's numbers take their final resting places on earth, I'm pretty confident that Kerry will be narrowly ahead.

Wisconsin is the one state that I can see us losing. Then again, I'd like to see where the numbers are in a week or so. Then I'll start to worry. I also note that we can win without it if we replace it with Ohio or Florida.

One thing I think Kerry MUST do in the final week or so: send Edwards to Ohio and make him camp-out there. Have Edwards' face in the local media every single evening of that final week. He plays well there in the state's swing areas - and we know it.

I largely agree with you. This really seems like a race to hold the Gore States and pick-off one or two more states. Almost a war of attrition, where we move the battle lines a little bit at a time. 20 or 27 electoral votes will do nicely for this round..