Rasmussen Battleground Report for 9/18

[louis c]

By the way, I'm 52 years old today.

Rasmussen's three day national tracking poll is unchanged and shows bush with a 4 point lead.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com

In the Paid Premium seven day tracking of five swing states the numbers are; Florida, Tie 48% (a 4 point Kerry increase from yesterday); Michigan, Kerry 50%-44% (a steady lead for nearly two weeks); North Carolina, Bush 56%-39% (double digits for Bush for 11 days); Ohio, Bush 48%-45% (Bush lead for 5 day in a row), Pennsylvania, Tie 46% (a 5 point Kerry increase from yesterday, and the first time Bush hasn't led in 7 days. Extremely good news)

Washington State, Weekly Update, Kerry 50%-45%; South Carolina Bush 50%-44% (I know, these Numbers in S.C. seem too close to me, also.)

I hope this makes you feel a little better than yesterday.

[Pirate Smile]

1. Thanks for the update. Happy Birthday!

:party:

[faithnotgreed]

2. happy happy birthday! you deserve it

and thank you for keeping us informed. those #s do look better dont they?

and thank you for giving insight as to the increases as well
love those sc numbers!

on edit: why are you being so good to us by giving us the latest reports? its YOUR birthday, run, take your one chance to do something non political!

i should just speak for myself. i am addicted to the campaign

[dumpster_baby]

3. Lookin' Good, Louis!

have a beer on me!

[molly]

4. Happy Birthday! Florida is significant and interesting

:party:

[AmerDem]

5. ALL of these fail to use

The new registered voter and the polls are done on land line phones, missing the 18 to 24 yr old age group that make up the bulk of new registered voters. It was estimated that out of all the 18 to 24 yr old new registered voters 75% were voting for Kerry.

Something else to consider, (and i'm not sure if Rasmussen does this) Time, Gallup etc. have been polling more repukes then Dems. It doesn't get anymore rigged then that!



BTW, happy B-Day

[louis c]

15. Rasmussen is a Repuke

but after missing the last election by 8 points, he weights his polls.

I know that no survey is 100% accurate, but tracking can give you a trend, and a sense of the ebb and flow.

He had Kerry by 2%-5% after Edwards was chosen, and showed the dip to even after the Swiftliars ads. He showed the bump for Bush post RNC, and it has settled back, nationally since then to about 3%.

Let's just say, if we're going to watch this thing, we have to rely on someone to keep us up to date, and I choose Rasmussen, and share the data, good or bad, here.

I also think that Kerry will have an election day edge that is historically given to challengers, as well as the advantage of the debates.

Rasmussen tracking has shown this race to be a toss-up and far from over. That's quite different from Gallup. We can use this info to our advantage.

I post it in an effort to inform, not that you should either believe or disbelieve the results.

We're all here for the same reason, and ignoring information, good or bad, doesn't make it go away.

[AmerDem]

19. If you want to live a life

following polls that are clearly rigged ( regardless of ebb and flow) that is your chose. I follow my instincts and it tells me the vast majority of America knows exactly what a lying,inept coward shrub is.

The only thing I have a problem with is the E voting machines. There is a full court press gag order on the media. Most Americans aren't aware just how easily they can be manipulated and how most have NO back up what so ever.

[bigpathpaul]

16. Does that make them mostly college students?

If so, we ought to be targeting them. I've been trying to come up with some ad ideas targeting college students. Anyone have any ideas? I know the draft could be a big issue. Here are a couple samples of what I've been working on:







The ads above, as well as others, are available as free, full-size, high-resolution JPEG or PDF downloads on my web site at http://www.bigpath.net. I hope you'll find them useful, and if you do, please forward, print, post, handout, carrier pigeon them to as many people as you can.

[AmerDem]

21. There is a flyer out there that

deals with the draft and it happened to be made by a college student who I think is studying mechanical drafting. Anyway, I have a copy here on my pc but I can't post it online. It's a very good one!

[louis c]

23. I love the chimp and the baby

for the tax cut. Just great. I downloded it and it will be on our Union Bullitin Boards Tomorrow.

Thanks again.

[bigpathpaul]

27. Let Me Know If There's Anything Else I Can Do...

I suppose I can take requests.

[bigpathpaul]

30. Another One to Check Out

I just checked the stats on my website and this ad is the most downloaded by a margin of 2-to-1 over the next most-downloaded one! I was planning on doing a whole series of these. Let me know what you think.



The ad above, as well as others, is available as free, full-size, high-resolution JPEG or PDF download on my web site at http://www.bigpath.net. I hope you'll find them useful, and if you do, please forward, print, post, handout, carrier pigeon them to as many people as you can.

[grasswire]

24. outstanding work, Paul

someone oughta be paying you to do this stuff. I forwarded your link to a lotta people.

and happy B-Day, Louis!

[bigpathpaul]

29. I got involved in this thread and never said Happy Birthday!

Happy Birthday!
I hit 50 a couple months ago, but I don't feel a day over 40.
Happy Day!

[louis c]

31. Thanks

I'd like to win this thing for the country I love.

"Patriotism is supporting your country all the time, but your government only when it deserves it"....Mark Twain

[mahina]

28. Thank you, thank you,

thank you!

[DarthDem]

6. Happy Birthday!

As the other person around here who lined Raz's Republican pockets (hehe), let me wish you a happy one. I was just about to post these numbers, thinking you might be away given the uncharacteristic post-5 P.M. delay.

They are *very* good news, aren't they? I need to look them over more carefully.

[Doosh]

7. happy b'day!

[mirandaod]

8. Happy Birthday! n/t

[Doosh]

9. NC and SC have traded places

lol, looks like SC drifts into play as NC drifts out. We've had some impressive recoveries in Florida and Pennsylvania. Michigan remains steeady and ahead of the Gore margin in 2000, Ohio is still within our reach. Now we need some other polls to confirm this!

[DarthDem]

12. NC Tied In Another Poll

North Carolina is tied in a poll that was just issued, done by Celinda Lake. She's a Dem, but hey, Strategic Vision gets to put their sh*t out there, so why can't we?

I actually give credence to Rasmussen's numbers to a large extent on these, particularly Michigan and Ohio, but the North Carolina numbers are ridiculously high for *. The SC numbers simply throw that into relief.

Incidentally, if Kerry loses SC by 50-44, then he's going to win the election with ease, and Inez Tenenbaum will crush DeMint in the race to replace Sen. Hollings. She may win anyway.

[speedoo]

20. There are MANY military people in SC.

Lots of active Navy people, and probably even more retired. I think a lot of those veterans hate the coWard.

It's great that we are tied in the Big Three (PA, Ohio and Florida).

Thanks... I feel much better.

[DarthDem]

22. Right, But

I believe that there are more in North Carolina - - there's Fort Bragg, Camp Lejeune, Pope AFB, Seymour Johnson AFB, and Cherry Point NAS/MCAS.

[senseandsensibility]

10. Happy bithday. Louis!

Hope you have something fun planned. Forget about the polls; enjoy yourself. I still appreciate you posting the paid ones, though. Good news!!:toast:

[UCLA Dem]

11. Happy B-day!

This just shows we have keep on plugging away and know that those evil neo-cons aren't going to get away with this!

[City Lights]

13. Great news, and happy 52 to you.

:toast:

[napi21]

14. I know we can't keep our eyes off the damn polls, but

to watch them daily is nuts, and going to drive us all crazy! The guys who run Zogby & Gallup both say the same thing. You watch trends because daily fluctuations don't mean anything.

I know. I keep saying I'm going to ignore them too, but I clicked on this thread huh.

[louis c]

17. I can't keep away

I'm a political junkie.

Although, if I was hooked on drugs and alcohol, instead of politics, I might have been President today.

[senseandsensibility]

18. lol

ain't that the truth. (sigh.)

[CalProf]

25. Happy Birthday!

and thanks for the updates.

[blue neen]

26. 52 candles, huh? Happy Birthday, louis c!

Thanks for the post. I feel a lot better about PA & FL.

[WI_DEM]

32. Happy Birthday!! and thanks for the good news

You know SC might actually be in better shape for Kerry than NC. The SC economy has been hit harder with the loss of manufacturing jobs. Not that we will win SC but it could be closer than expected. The news on Michigan continues to be good and I'm relieved by the news from Pa and Fl and Ohio is also closer.

[sonias]

33. I feel great!

I know we are going to win. Polls or no polls - bu$h is toast.
But thanks for the reassurance. Cheney that Gallup Poll!

Sonia

[Kammer]

34. Kick

Kick

[Carolinian]

35. Why is NC 56%B -39%K?????? Someone explain please.

[Zynx]

36. I'd be curious about the methodology.

[Zynx]

37. I personally believe that the race is tied right now.

If you adjust some of the national polls that give Bush a big lead for real numbers of party affiliation based on the 2000 exit poll, we are now tied, and possibly a bit ahead.

[MoonRiver]

41. Why is it even tied??

We are definitely a country of morAns! :argh:

Happy B'day louis! Thanks for the good news! Party hardy today! :party:

[devinsgram]

38. Happy Birthday and many more.

And from what I see here in my part of PA, heavy repug, Kerry is not tied or behind *. Just recently saw a huge sign in Hershey, very heavy repug, "Bush Must Go" on a heavy traffic street and other Kerry signs around the area. Also last election, * signs all over the place. Not so this year, I hardly see them anywhere. People are waking up.

[childslibrarian]

39. Happy Birthday Louis!

52? You're just a baby!!

[LonghornJack]

40. Please Keep Us Posted....

...and Happy 52nd Birthday (belated).

Thanks so much for the information. Believe me, I needed some positive news this weekend. I'm so tired of the media trumpeting Dumbya's "leads" in the polls.

Please keep us posted. Rasmussen seems to have his ducks in a row. You have a great source of polling info.

By the way, is there any news on the numbers in Wisconsin?

Thanks -- LHJ

[louis c]

42. Last Update for Wisconsin was

Bush 47%-Kerry 45% as of Tuesday, September 14.

Next weekly update for Wisconsin is Tuesday, September 21 at between 5 and 6 PM, EDT.

[Clinton Crusader]

43. thanks and...

HAPPY BIRTHDAY!
:party:

:kick: