Why Bush Will Lose in November

[BlueNomad]

Why Bush is teetering Despite his lead in opinion polls, history and demographics suggest the president could wind up a loser in November


Sunday, September 19, 2004
San Francisco Chronicle

Although polls say otherwise, George W. Bush remains the underdog in this election. Both demographics and history suggest the president's lead is perilous. Providing countervailing numbers to the opinion polls are the largest loss of jobs since Herbert Hoover's presidency and rising casualties in Iraq.
Bush could still win because he has been more disciplined than his opponent, Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts. In August, Bush campaigned as energetically as a challenger. Kerry coasted like an incumbent.

But by Nov. 2, Bush must convince Floridians that he truly is a compassionate conservative who has improved the environment and provided better health care. He must make Ohioans forget that their state has lost a quarter-million jobs and convince Buckeyes that he is a hero of the downsized and champion of the outsourced.

.... FOUR REASONS BUSH IS AN UNDERDOG (1) A self-described "war president" needs to be winning the war at re- election time. U.S. troops are bogged down in Iraq, and the death toll is growing. (2) Bush and his party represent a declining demographic. The Republican Party is a white, male, Anglo-Saxon Protestant party, as photos from its convention show. (3) Re-election is not the presidential norm. Only 11 presidents have served eight consecutive years. President Reagan was the last Republican president to be re-elected. (4) Al Gore won the popular vote in 2000. The three presidents who failed the first time around to win the popular vote did not return to the White House.

Martin F. Nolan, a veteran political reporter, is a fellow at the Joan Shorenstein Center on the Press, Politics and Public Policy at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government.


<http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2004/09/19/INGJ68OT8L1.DTL>

[Mr_Spock]

1. Heck, sounds good to me.

I am one who does believe that an incumbent needs a good lead in the polls to win on election day. I think a tie will go to the challenger and I think it will remain a tie or maybe even Kerry ahead as Bush doens't really have much of the "reality" thing going for him. The rheteric eventually wears off of the independant voter and they WILL make a decision based on facts (...on the ground, ie Iraq).

[izzie]

2. I hope it is true. Now if we could get the white guys he has voting for---

him to read something besides Rush and Bush we may win.