Are we behind or are we dead even?

[coloradodem2005]

In response to the polls that are mostly stupid, that show radically different results where Bush has a double digit lead and the other with Kerry about 2-5 points behind. I am starting to understand that the ones that have Bush way ahead are weighted improperly. I personally have not seen people jumping back on the Bush bandwagon to hell. Kerry still draws large crowds, even if he doesn't have John Elway. THough, they are also unvetted.

My question is, what are the polls not telling us? There are the new voters. What else?

[The_Casual_Observer]

1. Kerry is probably ahead, but they would never admit it at this point

[DaveinMD]

2. we are going to win this thing

I bet we are even or slightly behind right now. The polls are underestimating Democratic turnout greatly.

[baltodemvet]

3. Even

See http://www.emergingdemocraticmajorityweblog.com/donkeyrising/archives/000687.php

And when an incumbent president is only even at this point, he's in big trouble. But beware: rats are vicious when cornered.

[Nashyra]

4. Edwards advance team said that the * had to be 2pts ahead of the MOE

to have a real lead.

[GeorgeBushytail]

5. September polls

I can't get too excited about polls yet. I want to see the polls the 1st week after the first debate. That'll tell quite a story.