Good news, good news, good news!

[blondeatlast]

(snip)
A new Gallup survey released on Friday showed the Democratic presidential nominee leading Bush 50-43 percent among independents, even though the Republican incumbent held a 13-percentage-point lead among voters overall.

A Monitor/TIPP survey, one of several that showed the national presidential race returning to a dead heat, suggested a 10-point Kerry lead among independents.
(snip)

http://olympics.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=politicsNews&storyID=6271193

[cheshire]

1. Yes as far as polls go this is good news. Thanks

[tedoll78]

2. I've been celebrating this all day!

Gore lost independents by 3% in 2000. If we win them by even a mere 5%, and if we keep Dem turnout (as a share of overall turnout) where it was in 2000, we win.

:party:

[David Zephyr]

3. Good News That Gallup Is Trying to Cover Their Ass Now

Gallup shit the bed and is now trying to deodorize the mess.

[TrueAmerican]

4. So are Democrats voting for Bush?

Very unlikely.

[gospelized]

6. i know i am!

don't try and stop me.

[louis c]

7. I can't f**king figure this out

There are more Dems than Repukes in this country.

1/3 are Independent, How the f**k can Kerry be down by 13, overall, and up by 7 among indies?

It just doesn't figure.

You're right, for these numbers to be accurate at Bush by 13, he has to hold a lead among Dems. The worst polls have Kerry with a 3-1 lead among Dems.

It just doesn't add up.

[rockymountaindem]

15. That lead is because

the poll included 40% Republicans and only 33% Democrats.

Basically the only way Bush is ahead is if you ask a bunch of Republicans.

[NWHarkness]

16. Fuzzy math n/t

[jefferson_dem]

5. Thanks for the good news. Witness the bogus repug-friendly sampling bias

in action by Gallup. How else can you conjure up a 13 point lead when independents break for the other guy by such a margin?!

[featherman]

8. Wacky Math from Gallup

Kerry leads with independents by 7% and leads big (at least 80-20) with DEMS. These two groups comprise at least 65% of the recent historical electorate in Presidential elections. But Kerry is trailing by 13 overall. (GOP voters never been more that 35% of the electorate in any presidential election since the 1920's). It takes some seriously creative math to show ANY lead for Bush much less a 13% lead. It is mathematically impossible, in fact

What are these people playing at?

[TrueAmerican]

9. And I think 10 percent of Republicans will

be voting for Kerry.

[kentuck]

10. Perhaps they know they are in trouble.....

and that there is likely to be a large turnout and they could be up shitcreek? Perhaps they are doing everything in thei power to drive down hte turnout. Because turnout is the wooden stake in their vampirous hearts. They lose when people vote. They win when people stay home.

[Mr_Spock]

11. I figured it out! They are assuming that Dem's are demoralized so more

Republicans will show up at the polls!!!! And, guess what!!!, it's a self-fulfilling prophesy!!! I hope we are not so stupid as to fall for their bizarre methodology.

[mazzarro]

12. Gallup polls are still a bunch of BS to me!

eom

[WI_DEM]

13. how does Kerry lead 7-points among Indies and presumably

gets most of the dems and still lose to Bush by 13?

[rockymountaindem]

14. So wait a second...

Kerry leads among Dems (obviously), and he leads among independents (great news), but he's behind overall? How could that be? Oh, right... because Gallup polls an insane and unrealistically high number of registered Republicans!

Considering that Indys and Dems make up a big majority, this Gallup poll is great news, not bad!

[tedoll78]

17. I just did some math.

If Kerry gets 85% of the Democratic vote,
if Kerry gets 52% of the Independent vote,
if Kerry gets 9% of the Republican vote,

if Democrats are 39% of the voting public,
if Independents are 25% of the voting public,
and if Republicans are 36% of the voting public.

Kerry ends-up with 49.64% of the popular vote.

Pretty good. And the nice thing is.. all of those assumptions are very reasonable.

[Poiuyt]

18. Have you done the math for Bush as well?

And are you assuming that Nader is on the ballot?

Just curious how it would turn out. I would prefer to see Kerry with a majority.

[tedoll78]

19. I just did.

If Bush gets 10% of the Democratic vote,
if Bush gets 48% of the Independent vote,
and if Bush gets 89% of the Republican vote..

He ends-up with 47.94% of the overall vote.

(This leaves Nader and the rest to get about 2.42% of the vote.)