Political Oddsmaker now lists State by State Presidential Odds

[West Coast Democrat]

http://www.campaignline.com/oddsmaker/index.cfm?navid=12

According to Ron Faucheux, certain states that went for Bush* in 2000 will go to Kerry this year, and one that went to Gore will go to Bush*. But the odds are very, very close in many swing states. Faucheux believes Kerry will win both New Hampshire and West Virginia this time, but will lose Wisconsin, Florida and Ohio. He also calls Iowa a toss up. The bottom line is, if Ron is to be believed, all we need to do is hang on to Wisconisn and Iowa again, and Kerry will be in a tie with Bush*....manage to win one of the other close states, and we've won.

[jefferson_dem]

1. Very cool site. Thanks for the link. I trust Faucheux's perspective.

FL, OH, and WI are all in the Chimp column for now but odds are 51% or lower. ALL are retrievable! We will WIN!

[Nicholas_J]

8. I think we will win Ohio

Though Bush can claim that he is creating jobs, none of them are in the midwest. Ohio has lost more jobs since June of any of the state in the U.S. and a lot more people are out of work there. Jobs are a big issue in the midwest.

[murielm99]

2. I don't believe Wisconsin and Iowa will go to *.

I know people who are working on the ground in both states. They are very hopeful.

Wisconsin is not a * state. It has gone to the Democrats more often than not. I don't see how they can even call it a swing state.

Iowa might be a bit tougher. But even the repukes in Iowa are the more moderate types, like Grassley. We have lots of Democratic leadership in that state, too. They will get things done.

I will talk to my daughter after she attends the Harkin steak fry, to see what she thinks. She is voting absentee on Nov. 2 so she can knock on doors, call, and drive people to the polls.

Sorry. I am skeptical of anyone who thinks those two states are going *. I just don't think so.

[West Coast Democrat]

3. He's taking into account many GOP Convention "bounce" polls...

for which a bounce will not be maintained, yet Bush* only received a slight percentage change in Faucheux's campaign odds. I find that to be easily surmountable. The odds very from week to week. In 2000, Faucheux predicted a toss-up election for a while before election day.

[Thurston Howell IV]

4. Anybody know his methodology?

I didn't see anything on the site that explained how he got the odds?

[xrepub]

5. nonsense

I looked at his predictions for NY and CA. He gives Kerry a 2-1 edge in both places. I would bet the ranch on Kerry in either place if I could get 1 to 2 odds.

[havocmom]

6. And I doubt Montana will go 2 for 1 to bush*

People around here are not happy campers. In my tiny town, Kerry got a write in vote on a Republican primary ballot and there were a lot of "no preference" and no votes at all for him. He has gone down around here since then. He took this county with 80% in 2000. Won't happen again.

[featherman]

7. About right

I disagree about WI of course but surprised at WV