9/18 Election Model: Kerry EV 254, Win Prob 25%

[TruthIsAll]

Sept. 30 (the first debate) can't come soon enough.

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

Professor Sam Wang:
Kerry 232 EV, Win Prob 2%

http://synapse.princeton.edu/~sam/pollcalc.html

[ampster]

1. Don't Despair.....

I truly believe Kerry will hold all of the Gore states (PA,MI,IL, NJ,NY,WI,MN,OR,CA,WA). Including the majority of the New England states, possibly NH as well. We do not need FL, but would be nice if we could siphon off NC. I am not sure if we need OH, or MO, but it would be nice to reclaim WV and possibly grab AZ or CO.

I am guardedly optimistic about our prospects.

I am sending a check today to the Kerry campaign. Additionally, as a former deputy press secretary to Max Cleland I will offer my time to any Senatorial campaign that needs help with PR or get out the vote efforts.

I think Kerry is doing fine, its just so difficult to beat an organization that will do anything to hang onto power.

Keep the faith.

[abrock]

2. Here is what I want to know.

How can ANY polling organization claim Bush is on the upswing. He has done nothing at all for this country in the past year, Iraq has gotten worse, the economy remains in deep, deep trouble (but many don't see it yet), and worst of all, the 'war on terror', HIS war on terror, is failing to produce results. I've about had it with these people. They deserve him.

***George Bush in 2004: A stupid man, for a stupid people.***

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. Maybe We Need A New Electorate....

That being said I am willing to be guided by polls I deem credible...

[TruthIsAll]

9. And which polls do you deem credible?

.

[Julien Sorel]

38. It's a case of the evil you know.

Iraq is a mess, and people aren't sure who can fix it, so let's call it a push. The economy is doing worse than it should, but better than it could. Let's call it a push. Under those circumstances, people generally go for the evil they know.

[TruthIsAll]

3. Kerry must concentrate on: WI, NJ, PA, IA, FL

These are the states he has taken major hits.
Gore won them all.

[ampster]

5. Agreed on those states....

You have to consider that the South is like a zombie in this whole election scheme. Many of the states are not in play and they willing submit to Republican ideology.

So this allows Bush to spend heavily in WI,NJ,PA,IA. I believe FL is lost, I think the hurricanes will endear the faithful to that creep Jeb and it will pay dividends to Bush.

The fact that Kerry remains somewhat competitive in OH, CO, AZ, VA will cause Bush to shift his priority to those states. Or the continued competitiveness in Gore states may cause Kerry to abandon OH, CO,AZ, and VA.

Its a chess match. Thankfully Kerry has a war chest to compete with and he has help from MoveOn.

[LisaL]

37. Hah?

Gore lost Florida, that's why we have Bush as president.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. Maybe Now You Will Believe Me When I Tell You The Race Isn't Static...

Polling in the service of social science ripped from any kind of theoretical mooring is worthless....


Absolutely worthless.....


Go to any college campus and ask any professor in the social sciences and they will agree with my assessment....


Absolutely worthless....

[TruthIsAll]

6. I never said it was static. Once again, you are putting words in my mouth.

Your pontification is beyond tiresome.

Do you have a view on the race?

If you do, what is the information you base it on?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. That's A Fair Question...

There are so many variables that go into making a prediction on presidential elections that in the final analysis you are left with nothing more than the ability to make an educated guess....

Reelection campaigns are referendums on the incumbent. If a majority or plurality of folks are satisfied with the job he is doing they will reelect him...Bush's reelection hopes are pinned to his job approval numbers. He will probably end up with a percentage of the popular vote that mirrors his job approval numbers. That number ranges anywhere from the mid forties to around fifty depending on the poll.

But I don't have much faith in "universal" theories and by that I mean theories that are determinative in nature and claim to explain all. For instance unpopular incumbents can sometimes get reelected by making their opponents unacceptable. That's what Gray Davis did to William Simon in California and what Bushco is trying to do to Kerry.

I respect Kerry but he has some deficits as a candidate. He comes from an area of the country that hasn't elected a Democratic president since 1960. He lacks the common touch and comes across as Thurston Howell with many of his hobbies such as yatching and windsurfing. Can't he find more plebian hobbies like golf? You wouldn't catch me dead clearing brush for fun like Bush* but the massses believe this activity makes Bush a regular guy... I also think his "nuanced" position on the Iraq war is haunting him in this campaign...


Here's my prediction and you can bookmark my thread.... If this election is about the incumbent as it should be Kerry will win. If this election is about the challenger Kerry will lose....

[TruthIsAll]

14. And where do you get job approval numbers? From a POLL.

You:
"Reelection campaigns are referendums on the incumbent. If a majority or plurality of folks are satisfied with the job he is doing they will reelect him...Bush's reelection hopes are pinned to his job approval numbers. He will probably end up with a percentage of the popular vote that mirrors his job approval numbers. That number ranges anywhere from the mid forties to around fifty depending on the poll".

Very incisive comment. Tell us something we don't already know.
But you said you don't trust polls, why should you trust job approval polls? Hmm...

"Here's my prediction and you can bookmark my thread.... If this election is about the incumbent as it should be Kerry will win. If this election is about the challenger Kerry will lose...."

Now that's what I call going out on a limb. Picking both to win.

Oh, and for your sake, I won't bookmark your thread. It's too embarrassing to keep it around.

Massachusetts? Are you saying Kerry is too liberal?
Golf? If Kerry putted, he would have a better chance?
Lacks the common touch? Then why will you vote for him? Are you not touched by him?

Your's is a totally inane post.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

17. "Your's is a totally inane post."

Is your ad hominem attack the epilogue or prologue to your surrender?

It is a historical fact that the last non-southern Democrat to be elected president is John Kennedy.... Forty four years is a long time.... Part of it can be explained by regional bias and part of it can be explained by demographics . Look At The Electoral College... The big electoral prizes have moved from the northeast to the south and the west...

Perception is reality... Clinton gave the aura of an average guy...AWOL regrettably gives that aura too....

Why do you think he speaks with that faux southern accent on the trail and wears that same blue shirt every day ?

Also, I notice two feeble attempts to bait me in your post "Is Kerry too liberal" and "Then why will you vote for him"... That's not very nice and I won't respond in kind other than to ask you if your attempts to bait me make you a "masterbaiter"...

I'll toss you a bone... I will vote for Kerry because I wouldn't vote for a Republican if you put a gun behind my ear....

Kisses,


Democrat Since Birth

[formernaderite]

26. It is the average guy aura....

...I know this from average union IUPAT guys I work with. Thankfully, alot of these guys don't register to vote. These are fairly apolitical people, they vote on persona and rhetoric...not platform. Clinton did it for them.....Kerry doesn't. Will Bush actually get them to the polls?
That's debatable...and I live in a safe blue state, so it wouldn't matter anyway. I'm only concerned that this attitude is real, and reflective of the nation. Personally, I'd love to see Edwards out there more...on the shows beyond the stump appearances the press isn't picking up. Or do some Edwards ads....he does have more of the qualities we're talking about, (even if he's too pretty).

[DemocratSinceBirth]

30. Alas...

We can discuss politics ...


Bingo....


I despise Bush but I can see his appeal just as I despise Hitler but could see his appeal....


I'm not saying Bush and Hitler are the same nor am I saying their appeal are the same....


There is something to be said to being the candidate who you would like to have a beer with....

[DemocratSinceBirth]

21. I Have To Reply Again Since You Edited Your Post...

I never said I don't trust polls... I said I trust polls that meet the rigorous standards of social scientific inquiry...


I think we are arguing, debating, discussing, what have you, this issue on parallel tracks....


You are arguing from a static theory of campaigning while I argue from a dynamic theory....

[Name removed]

25. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

28. "What Are Your Bonafides"

"You make me sick... You are one pompous, ignorant blowhard."


I could respond in kind....


However I will just respond that this is your sixth or seventh violation of Democratic Underground rules....


I have attacked your methodology not you.... You have attacked me......


There are boards where that kind of behavior is the norm... You will shortly learn DU is not one of them...

Kisses

Brian

[TruthIsAll]

29. Is that a threat?

.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

35. I Try Not To Insult People Or Make Threats On An Internet Board

I consider it unmanly....


If I was to insult or threaten someone it would be in person...


But I'm not really the threatening or insulting type.....

[TruthIsAll]

43. You made a veiled threat about my "learning" something on DU.

Could you explain what you were referring to? Or do you just want to drop it now.

I waste too much time responding to your diversions. Next time, I will leave it to my fellow DUers to set you straight, as a few have already done here.

As for me, I will NOT respond any longer.

And don't kiss me. That is unmanly.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

49. By Learning

I meant you will learn it's a violation of DU rules to personally attack another poster...


If making personal attacks on me hiding behind the cloak of anonymity provided by an internet chat board will set a person straight then we have more fundamental disagreements than our disagreements about methodology...


Handshakes


Brian

[TruthIsAll]

8. And that is precisely why I run the dynamic analysis every day.

You are so wrapped up in your uninformed mind-set.

If the analysis is worthless, why don't you stop reading it?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. ROTFLMFAO

Your model is only valid for the time period it covers....


What part of that don't you understand?

[WyLoochka]

12. DSB - many of us understand

this - that the situation is dynamic. We appreciate TIA's daily number crunching which reflects just how dynamic things are.

I suggest you put these daily TIA updates on ignore and let the rest of us read and comment, absent your unwarranted attacks on TIA.

[TruthIsAll]

13. Mesquite, I was going to reply , but you beat me to it. Thanks.

tia

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. What Is Unwarranted By My "Attack"

I question his methodology.....


Aren't you glad Galileo "attacked" the geocentric theory of his time

[TruthIsAll]

16. I knew Galileo, he was a friend of mine.You're no Galileo..

Now why don't you quit DU and go harass these 40 election prediction sites which also analyze polls.

http://unfutz.blogspot.com/

[DemocratSinceBirth]

18. I'm not harassing you....

I'm just pointing out the flaws in your methodology.....


I'll give you an A in regression analysis and humbly suggest you take some courses in political science....

[Name removed]

20. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[TruthIsAll]

32. You don't know my methodology. You thought it was regression analysis.

That shows you how much you have analyzed my work.

That is PROOF of your incompetence.

Now, what is YOUR methodology?

Oh, you don't have one.

[SoCalDemocrat]

58. I question the polling

There I said it. I question the polling.

Keep the faith, do whatever you can to get swing state voters to the polls.

[Cheswick2.0]

19. So where is your analysis? Where are your polls?

It's easy to criticize what someone else does, but you don't seem to have an alternative analysis.
Start a thread with your own stats using your own methodology and let's see how they hold up.

[Name removed]

22. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

23. Wow- Your Ad Hominem Attacks Reveal More About Your

Character Than They Could Ever Reveal About My Criticism Of Your Methodology....


Kisses


Brian

[DemocratSinceBirth]

24. I Don't Have A Universal Theory To Predict This Election

To paraphrase Mencken there are universals theories to explain all kinds of phenomena and they are all wrong...

[TruthIsAll]

27. You are so full of yourself. You quote geniuses. But you produce squat.

You keep avoiding my questions.

What are your bonafides?
Where is your analysis?
Which polls do you follow?

Only the froth running out of your mouth is dynamic.
You have a static brain.

Add THAT, hominem.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

31. "If"

"If I have seen farther, it is by standing on the shoulders of giants"


-props to Sir Issac Newton


Peace


Brian

[TruthIsAll]

34. Oh, now it's Newton. Who next, Einstein?

Your arguments stand on a sand bed of ignorance, not giants.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

36. Are You Going For The Record?

Most gratutitous insults in one thread....

[Name removed]

42. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

46. I Attacked His Methodology I Didn't Attack The Person

Attacking a person is a violation of DU rules....


http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=register


If you want a more free wheeling board where we can call other posters trolls, repukes, blowhards, pompous asses, etcetera take it up with skinner.....

[Clinton Crusader]

33. 2%???? Im going back to bed

:kick:

[Julien Sorel]

39. Again, I will point out that,

barring a decisive blunder, debates don't do much except jack up news show ratings and give the so-called pundits something to spin. If there's a debate in the TV era that decided the outcome of a presidential election, I don't know of it.

[Clinton Crusader]

40. Kennedy/Nixon AND Clinton/* 41

Things turned around overnight for JFK, Nixon looked pale, sick and sweaty, wherein JFK was confident, well spoken and looked ALIVE.

WIth Clinton and * 41, * 41, blundered TERRIBLY, looking at his watch and during a town hall meeting style debate when asked how the recession had effected HIM, he could NOT answer.

I believe these are 2 very important examples of how debates changed the election or at least pushed it along.
:kick:

[Julien Sorel]

51. It helped Kennedy, but I dont think it was decisive, from what I've read.

Moreover, I don't think Bush will show up looking like he needs a shave, and needing makeup, either. Because this debate (the first of two, I think) happened before people understood how important appearences were in the TV era, this isn;t really a "modern" debate. The mistakes Nixon made aren't going to be repeated.

[boxster]

52. That election was so close that the "bump" Kennedy received

certainly helped him win. Nixon's poor showing certainly hurt him.

As you mentioned, though, this isn't Kennedy/Nixon, though there are some interesting similarities. Corrupt Republican vs. Northeast Liberal. (Though, Kennedy was pretty moderate on several issues.)

[DemocratSinceBirth]

41. How About The Reagan- Carter Debate....

And the Gore-Bush debates....


I and most of America thought Gore demolished Bush in the first debate until the media made a "hash" out of Gore's sighing ....


This led to Gore being odlly subdued in the second debate....


Gore got it right in the third debate but by then it was too late...

[Merlin]

44. Time to stop the infighting. Time to pull together. The siege is on.

TruthIsAll has been saying we're going to win this thing for nearly two years--even when Bush was at the peak of his popularity. One must at least respect his tenacity and ceaseless effort.

So far, TIA's optimism has been prescient.

Admitedly things have not gone according to the textbook. Like you, I, too have done some major league criticizing of our candidate and our campaign.

But I respectfully suggest to you that at a certain point in any battle, the seige is ON, and at that point we MUST all pull together, stop the infighting, and BELIEVE IN OURSELVES.

IMO, we have reached that point. It's time to hang together, because we all know what Ben would say about the alternative...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

47. I Don't Want To Fight With Anyone...

Insulting people on an internet board is the height of cowardice....


I merely questioned his methodology and have been made the subject of ugly personal attacks....


Ugly personal attacks made from the anonymity of a computer modem....

[Julien Sorel]

48. Some people say, to slip into journalist speak,

that the Reagan-Carter debate decided the election. But even then, Carter screwed up royally by "allowing" his daughter to choose what he thought was the most important subject and saying so, which gave the pundits something to spin. And the dynamics of the race were different. Carter had done a masterful job of painting Reagan as dangerous and out of it during his campaign; the debate gave Reagan the opportunity to introduce himself to the public and show he wasn't as bad as Carter had painted him. But overall, the deciding factor was the economy, not the debate. The debate was just a reminder.

I do think Kerry could benefit from a similar effect from the debates. As the subject of the most massive negative ad campaign in political history, Kerry has the opportunity to step up and show the public what he's really about. It will almost certainly help. But I doubt it will be decisive.

The Gore-Bush debates were nothing, and didn't affect the race at all, from what I can tell. Just two dull men yakking, and a bunch of overpaid hacks spinning like dervishes afterwards.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

50. It's Not Always The Debate... It's The Post Debate Spin....

After the first debate a consensus was forming that Gore did well but this consensus was disrupted by the repeated "out of context" replaying of his sighing at *'s answers....


I think in a close race debates can be decisive with the operative word being close....

[boxster]

45. Gee, what happened to 99%+ win probability?

That was barely a month ago.

[JPJones]

53. I always thought this model was bullshit

Even when Kerry was ahead. Really, it's a pointless piece of information.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

55. You Better Have A Thick Skin....

edited to maintain comity on this board....

[Merlin]

54. TruthIsAll & DemocratSinceBirth, it's TIME TO BURY THE HATCHET.

And I don't mean in each other's backs.

Please call off the blood feud and let's get on with beating the real mother f*ckers.

The battle is now in the thick. We just can't afford any internal bickering from here on out.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

56. I'm Over It But

edited to maintain comity....

[rocktivity]

57. State GOP Wants (Minnesota) Star Tribune To Suspend Polls

From the Duluth News Tribune

Last week, (MN GOP Chairman) Eibensteiner called for the Star Tribune to fire its pollster for what he said was years of overrepresenting Democrats and underrepresenting Republicans in the poll. Days later, a new Minnesota Poll of likely voters showed Democratic presidential challenger Sen. John Kerry leading President Bush among likely voters, 50 percent to 41 percent.

Why have the polls gone so whacky all of a sudden? As of this week, Bush's leads are 13, 8, 4, 1 and 0. And now the state polls have gone bonkers, too. A weapon of mass distraction from AWOL Bush, the final WMD verdict, no debates, and worse to come? Is this the result of a national GOP effort to pressure ALL the pollsters, with Minnesota refusing to take the dive?

:headbang:
rocknation