Today's Gallup Poll pure bullshit.

[Cyrano]

Gallup made the assumption that of those turning up to vote this year, 40% would be Republicans and 33% would be Democrats. Their numbers are based on these assumptions. The story is posted on smirkingchimp.com.

http://smirkingchimp.com/print.php?sid=17881

Also, the CEO of Gallup is a Republican. Surprise, surprise.

Fuckers like these won't stop until they're dragged, kicking and screaming, away from the levers of power.


If/when the Dems ever regain control of congress, we're going to need some new laws to make sure this crap never happens again in this country. (And, no, I don't know what these laws should be. But we know now if we didn't know before that a democracy needs to protect against a fascist takeover.)

[Longhorn]

1. There's also a discussion about it

at www.electoral-vote.com.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. On 10/27/2000

they had it


Bush 52%


Gore 39%



Surprisingly their final pre election poll had it Bush 48% Gore 46% within the MOE......


I guess they didn't want to be embarrassed but that begs the question what percentages of Dems, Reps, and Indys were in their final poll

[Smarmie Doofus]

3. CBS/NY TIMES...

Had Bush up by eight this morning. I'd be more likely to trust this. The story noted much volatility in the electorate. Attributed this disparity in the polls to this and the fact that telephone polling is even more difficult to do than even 4 yrs ago. Technological changes in everyday life, etc.

If memory serves , the CBS/NYT poll, was the only major survey to have Gore up by 1% in their final poll in 2000.

Now that's pretty close.

Paul

[nolajazz]

4. CBS/NYT polls also oversampled Republicans, just like the Gallup poll.

The CBS poll asked 36% R and 32% D. This has been discussed yesterday in several threads.

[progressivebydesign]

12. AND gave the other 30-something% to Independents..

..which DO NOT make up 1/3 of the voters, AND skew Republican.. they are leftover Perot people. Their sampling is ridiculous. But I'd rather we feel a bit pressured in the polls... gets out the vote. Democrats turn out much higher to vote, and the NEW voters (a force to reckon with this time) is MUCH MUCH higher Democratic leaning.

We are being overpolled.

[Teaser]

5. This poll also oversamples Repubs, Mr 30 posts.

It has a 4 point lead in Repubs over Dems. Exactly the opposite is the case.

Oh, and before I forget...30 posts, eh?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. The CBS Poll Was Suprising...

because the CBS-NYT polls is usually criticized for tilting Democratic....


That being said if you don't correctly anticipate the percentages of Dems, Reps, and Indys your poll is worthless...

[Smarmie Doofus]

8. That's "Mr. *31* posts, to YOU !

It may indeed oversample Republicans. I asserted nothing to the contrary.

Merely pointed out that the survey was dead on on election eve 2000, when the rest showed a Bush popular vote majority.

Now it should be :"Mr 32 Posts".

Paul

[progressivebydesign]

13. Welcome!

Don't forget, we don't know the sampling sizes and makeup from 2000. Could be that they were actually sampling correctly then... this trend to give more weight to Repubs, and to give indenpendents 1/3 of the poll, is a new one, as far as I know.

Try to ignore those that get their thrills by trying to "out" an infiltrator first. It's like a pissing contest (pardon my french). It's ridiculous that someone with low post numbers has to be a cheerleader in order to escape ridicule and suspicion. I've been here since 2001, and have over 5,000 posts. I don't get into attacking the new people.. we're not all like that.

I like to give the benefit of the doubt. I figure, so what if someone does come here with the intent of disrupting at some point.. they'll be dealt with at that time, until then, I'm not going to jump on each and every new post by a newbie. That's republican tactics... I'd rather show people, who may have come here with bad intent, that we're good people.

[Smarmie Doofus]

15. Thanks...

I'm not much of a cheerleader "type" so I'll mostly likely get a flame or two... and truly, I don't mind.

I've been working, for free, on Democratic campaigns in NYC for YEARS so I feel no need to prove myself... nor, frankly, do I have the energy left to expend on such a thankless task.

I do think constructive criticism is an EXTREMELY valuable commodity in a community like this, and seems to be in short supply in the forums generally.

Democrats can be consumed by groupthink delusions as much as any other group. We should be open to challenges to our assumptions like anyone else.

The idea that I'm a Republican plant, though, is a classic!

Thanks for the kind words.

Paul

[West Coast Democrat]

9. The CBS/NY Times final poll was Bush 47 Gore 42 (11/1-11/4)

The final CBS (not partnered w/ the NY Times) poll was Gore 45 Bush 44 (11/4-11/6) These were two separate polls.

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh2gen1.htm

[KingofRock]

7. Can poll results affect election outcomes? If so it is a federal crime

to take a poll in a way that favors a canidate in a presidential race if the poll itself is affecting peoples decision. This should be looked into.

[George W. Dunce]

10. I stopped listening to them

they all told us for a week Chimpy in Charge was a head by 10-12 points, yet the EC map showed Kerry by a landslide. Now conversely this week they told us Kerry back in it, tied or even a head in some polls,yet look at the EC map and it shows Chimpy Mcflightsuit in a landslide. What can we make of this? Nothing all subjective bullshit....stay the course.

[West Coast Democrat]

11. Take a look at Gallup polls from 2000...the results are all over the place

At about this time in 2000, the Gallup/CNN/USA Today Poll had Gore up by 10 points at 51-41. A couple of weeks later, Bush was up by 8 points. A couple of weeks later, the race was a tie, then Bush consistently led in that poll until the election, with a final poll putting Bush ahead by 2%. It was as thought they were flip-flopping on their methodology right in the middle of the election cycle.

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh2gen1.htm

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. I Read That They Don't Weight For Party ID

It gets confusing and arcane....


There was an interesting discussion of this in the Washington Post by Richard Morin during Election 00...


The swings in Gallup's 00 polling can be explained by the percentage of Dems, Reps, and Indys responding on any given evening...


Party ID while not constant is certainly not as fluid as Gallup's polling suggests...