What effect to the polls have on the election?

[Poiuyt]

There's a very good explanation of the polling process and the way the different polls weight things today at http://www.electoral-vote.com/. It really seems like they can't be trusted (no news to people here). My question is how all these polls are going to effect the way people vote, if at all. If the polls show one candidate up, will undecided voters decide to go with whoever is leading? Will they feel that voting for the candidate who is behind is just wasting their time? Will voters supporting a losing candidate feel energized to work harder, or will they feel helpless? If the candidate they are supporting is leading, will the voters feel complacent and not bother voting at all?

My feeling is that people will tend to jump on the bandwagon of whoever is leading, which is why I don't like polls that show Bush ahead of Kerry. I still fell that the anti-Bush legion is so energized that voters will turn out for Kerry in droves, but I don't want to see the Republican base get any momentum.

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

1. Are there really voters who think this is merely

a popularity contest? That this is no more important than choosing the president of the Eighth Grade?

Folks I know are interested in issues, be it Iraq, the economy, or the environment. They look at candidates for what they will do-or haven't done. And I'm not talking about political junkies, or even folks that have had more than a high school education. The fellows I work with are, to a man, voting against Bush. They can't stand him, and two of them, who have boys of 13, are really worried about what might befall their sons if Bush is re-elected.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. I Think Polls Can Shape The Perception Of The Candidate....

They can give a candidate the aura of a winner or loser...


They can energize or demoralize a candidates's supporters....


That's why polls are so powerful...

[chascaz]

3. I think it depends on who believes this poll or that poll...

So, considering that most repugs believe the gallup numbers, i hope it will give them some complacency. But the REAL polls, which we believe, are in the perfect place to energize us and bring new democrat voters, and win the election, possibly by an (electoral) landslide. The small percentage of swing voters, who haven't figured it out already, probably don't know a thing about the polls, because they don't pay attention to politics, that's why they're "undecided" and that's what makes them swing voters. They probably form their political opinion from their friends and family, and whatever bumperstickers they read. There's alot more Kerry (and anti-bush) bumperstickers in my "republican" area than bush stickers, and that's where the real poll numbers are. IMHO.

Peace - :)

[On the Road]

4. There's a Reason

that virtually all campaigns present polls that show their candidate either winning or doing as well as possible.

Look at Bush-Kerry. The winning aura created by the convention and the related bump made Kerry more attractive -- even here. Most people only had good things to say. Bush, on the other hand, looked like a loser.

Things changed since then. They may be changing back. But polls amplify whatever trends are otherwise going on, and might even create them if enough people believe fake poll results. That's what the Bushies are trying to do now.

[blackcat77]

5. The main thing they do is suppress the vote...

...if it looks like one candidate is way ahead. They don't change people's minds, just make them feel like their vote won't matter.