This is why I do all this number crunching...

[TruthIsAll]

Because, frankly, no one else is doing it this way. At least none that I have seen. There are many other sites, each has its own style. This is mine.

Because I believe that knowledge is power.

Because I believe without a full, unbiased database perspective, polling information is worthless.

Because I believe the media is misleading the public by hyping individual polls which are biased for Bush.

Because I believe that state polls AND national polls must be viewed in tandem. By appropriate weighting of individual state polls, we should expect the national total to agree with the average of the National poll results, realizing that state polls lag the nationals

Because I believe an election analysis should calculate win probabilities based on electoral votes AND popular vote percentages.

Because I believe we need to analyze trends, current polls and apply reasonable projection assumptions. My only assumption is to assume a range of undecided voter allocations, with 60% to Kerry being a base case. That is my best case based on historical precedent.

Because I believe that there are very few sites which provide this information.

Because I believe that graphs are a powerful way to present current poll data, historic trends, and projections.


There are many electoral vote prediction sites. Each has its own style. Mine is to just present the analysis - without commentary. I assume the reader will interpret the analysis as they see fit.

I do not predict anything. The analysis is updated day-to-day as new data comes in.

I like doing it. I have put a lot of effort into the model. I hope I have achieved my goal of providing additional insight.

Excel is a wonderful, powerful tool. It is what I do for a living in analyzing financial and investment data.

I do not advertise or make one penny on the site. It is there for YOUR benefit, as well as for all those who want to see Kerry win.

I appreciate comments, suggestions and substantive criticisms. I am always looking to improve the model.

And for those trolls out there who just want to hijack my threads, please do us all a favor - don't. After over two years and almost 10,000 posts, most DUers know that I do not suffer fools gladly.

These are comprehensive blogs with links to polling/analysis sites. I am proud to be included among them:

http://unfutz.blogspot.com/

http://members1.chello.nl/~a.horlings/doc-polls.html

[Pathwalker]

1. I love your threads, Truth. I don't post on them, but

I read every word you write. You are doing a wonderful thing in your effort, don't let the bastards grind you down. I have no doubt your threads bring a LOT of hope to many here, and I thank you for all your work - it matters!

[UTUSN]

4. Me, Too. Even Just Your Headlines Are Rays of Hope. Thank You. n/t

[sangh0]

16. I'm with them

I don't often post in your threads, and I often disagree with your conclusions, but I always find that they have been drawn in a reasonable manner and give me something to think about. Your work is appreciated.

[unblock]

2. you do good work

out of curiosity, what's your paying gig?
are you in nyc?

[TruthIsAll]

6. Many years on Wall St in inv. banking as a quantitative/syst analyst

I am in Florida and am a research coordinator for an investment advisory.

[ThatPoetGuy]

3. I am also a fan.

I look forward to your postings every bit as much as I look forward to Krugman. Especially the ones where you compile a list of links on an issue. I've said it before: you rock.

[kentuck]

5. The TIA Poll seems to be more credible than the Gallop/CNN Poll...

at this time... :)

Perhaps we should start quoting TIA's democraticunderground poll to compete with the others??

[olddem43]

7. I appreciate and look forward to your analyses.

Keep it up. Thanks.

[TruthIsAll]

8. Kentuck, thanks, but I do not have a poll. I analyze them...

to put them in perspective.

My only bias is for the TRUTH.

[Lugnut]

9. I haven't told you this but

I truly appreciate your efforts. I always look for your threads and your skillful analyses. Thank you. :)

(edited for haphazard keyboarding)

[lasttrip]

10. your efforts are greatly appreciated.

cant tell you my background but i realize the amount of work involved.
peace.

[Morning Dew]

12. love your sig - appropriate song for these times.

ashes, ashes . . .

[lasttrip]

13. dont want to be treated this old way.

thanx.

[Hamlette]

11. I hang on your every word and quote you often

thank you so much for doing this and taking the time to post it all. You, and the guy who does the cartoons, are my heroes.

[WyLoochka]

14. TIA is a Gem

The majority of my bookmarks are TIA threads.

I have found the stat and links threads to be invaluable as "go tos" to retrieve info for a discussion I might be having with one of the softening, BushCo supporter, acquaintances I am working on to get firmly encamped over here with John Kerry.

Thanks for all you do TIA!

[Mz Pip]

15. Explain something to me

please. Statistics was my worst subject in grad school so I am easily confused by all the polling and methodologies used.

If the data for "likely voters" is based on who voted last time shouldn't these polls be a whole lot closer? We have been assuming that most of the people who voted for Gore will be voting for Kerry. These swings of 9 points to Bush seems to imply that there are a lot of folks out there who voted for Gore last time and are now voting for Bush.

Thanks for all the work.

MzPip
:dem: