Bush Ratings Drop Among Uncommitted Voters, Annenberg Poll Says

[Nicholas_J]

Sept. 15 (Bloomberg) -- President George W. Bush's approval rating declined to 44 percent from 56 percent among undecided voters since the Republican National Convention, a poll by the University of Pennsylvania's Annenberg Public Policy Center found.

Bush, 58, leads Democratic presidential challenger John Kerry in polls after the Aug. 30-Sept. 2 convention. His favorable ratings on key issues in the Annenberg poll fell among voters who haven't decided whom to support or who aren't committed to a candidate.

``On a number of points, Bush lost ground on persuadable voters'' as the convention faded into memory, said Adam Clymer, the Philadelphia-based center's political director.

Bush's strength remains the war on terror: 54 percent of registered voters polled Sept. 3-12 said the president would do a better job than Kerry fighting terrorism; 36 percent picked Kerry, 60, a four-term Massachusetts senator. Among uncommitted voters, 47 percent said Bush would do a better job fighting terrorism and 23 percent picked Kerry.

The poll found 32 percent of uncommitted, or ``persuadable,'' voters approved of Bush's handling of the economy and 63 percent disapproved. In August, 39 percent approved and 54 percent disapproved. Bush's approval rating among these voters dipped from 56 percent in August to 44 percent in September.

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000176&sid=afIZr_m0SVMA&refer=us_elections

I have wondered about the polls like Gallop and the latest CBS polls showing Bush so far ahead and since it was pointed out that the Gallop Polls are greatly oversampling Republicans, I started looking for the same data in other polls and found that every poll that has Bush ahead by more than a point is sampling a minimum of ten percent more Republicans than Democrats and as much as 20 percent more Republicans than Democrats. In only one poll do they actually sample more independents than they do Democrats, Democrats being the lowest percentage of voters sampled in the latest CBS poll which has Bush 9 point ahead of Kerry (this poll samples ten percent more Republicans than Democrats and 4 percent more independents than Democrats).

If this poll is accurate however, then Kerry's chances are still good, as Bush is way below the 50 percent favorability rate with the remaining undecided voters, giving more of a chance of the historical trend with undecided voters to occur. In the last two to three weeks of the election season, undecides overwhelmingly go againt the incumbent (between 75 and 85 percent of the final undecided vote againat the incumbent) This hopefully will hold true, as again, historically, those undecided voters who vote aganst the incumbent always have given the incumbent a favorability rating of less than 50 percent.

[AP]

1. "As the convention fades into memory"?? Hah! I wouldn't be surprised if...

...the convention CAUSED some of this.

[Catch22Dem]

2. Now, that's some good info!

Thanks!

[dumpster_baby]

3. great info, thx

[are_we_united_yet]

4. I don't take too much stock in polls

But thanks I needed that.

:)

[Crachet2004]

5. Why doesn't someone BUST these GOP-oversampling pollsters?

And of course, the whole idea is to build a sense of inevitability about a Bush victory! And given the unconcern and lack of education of average Americans, it no doubt works!

Hey, you can have a Master's degree, and not know anything, about anything, except your own overspecialized specialty, in this country we live in today.

The whole damn thing stinks to high heaven, and I think it is time for these propagandists to be regulated-or outlawed.

What do we need with published polls anyhow? Evidently they are nothing but lies from start to finish.

Just one more tool out of many in the box, to manipulate the American electorate.

The more I learn, the less I like it.

[billbuckhead]

7. Adam Clymer! Did Bush?Cheney get that major league a##hole fired?

[Massacure]

6. Too much red meat, and not enough ideas.

[SoCalDemocrat]

8. slanted polling

If the polls don't poll the percentage of Democrats vs. Republicans that exist in the voting base, then how can they be accurate?

I think there are 37% registered Democrats compared to 31% Registered Republicans or something like that. The polls should be polling based on that breakdown. Anything else is slanting it one way or another.

[billbuckhead]

9. Actually they should be based on which percentage of Dems vs RepuKKKes vot

The last 2 elections had 39% of the voters being Democrats and most of these polls have Dems at 31%. It's obviously slanted.

I think in different elections each party has different problems mobilizing their bases and making their tents bigger so that an accuarate poll would reflect that.