ARG Poll: Kerry 48 Bush 45

[Tony_FLADEM]

The poll also concluded that without Nader, Kerry is leading Bush nationally by 48% by 45% and with Nader by 46% to 45% with Nader at 3%. Among likely voters, it is Kerry 47%, Bush 47%, Nader 3%.

<http://www.electoral-vote.com/>

[Teaser]

1. Survey end date is Sept. 1

not new, unfortunately.

[DaveinMD]

2. I was sure

that poll was just completed. Where do you get the September 1 date from.

[WI_DEM]

3. Take that , Gallup

[tedoll78]

4. So, in summary..

Among all polls that are weighted properly, Kerry is at least tied with the Chimp.

In the CBS poll, independents favor Kerry by 7%.

Countless young voters are not being represented in these polls.

F9/11 hasn't come out yet, and will be seen by millions more viewers before the election. {Especially notable: ~40% of Republicans who saw it and ~60% of independents who saw it view it positively.}

And our side is fired-up to all hell and back.

I'm pretty comfortable. (but not complacent..)

[DaveinMD]

5. agreed

this election hinges on turnout. If we turnout our voters, we will win. I have full confidence that we'll win.

[LisaL]

6. And how about this?

"Jimmy Breslin of Newsday had an column yesterday that, if true, makes this website irrelevant. Breslin claims that pollsters do not call the 168 million cell phones in the country. Since many younger voters do not have a land line and just a cell phone, they will be hugely underrepresented in all the telephone polls. Since younger voters lean more towards the Democrats than the average voter, the polls may be greatly underestimating Kerry's strength. Between missing all the people who have only a cell phone and no land line and the 5 million overseas voters, the polls maybe missing a very large section of the electorate. If anyone working for a pollster or telecom company knows ***for sure*** whether pollsters call cell phones, please let me know. But please don't send e-mail on this subject if you are just speculating."

[DaveinMD]

7. yes

Zogby explained that its illegal to call cell phones. That problem could be rectified if the sample is weighted properly.

[faithnotgreed]

9. from what i have read from zogby: pollsters calling cell phones

is illegal

however, there is a longtime duer (sorry cant recall who but posted in the past week with this information) who said that rasmussen has called her on her cell phone

so its not supposed to happen but there is at least one pollster who has supposedly done this

[DaveinMD]

11. some firms

use random digit dialing. This leads to cell phones being called. However, most reputable companies had a dialer loaded with numbers only on land lines. It depends on the call center that is used.

[billbuckhead]

13. Didn't many people switch their landline phone#'s to cellular recently?

Wasn't there a big push to do this a few month's ago?

[npincus]

8. f*cking Nader- that bastard is going to screw us again

[Comicstripper]

10. Nah

He was polling just as well in 2000 and didnt get 3 percent. Plus, I'm fairly sure he'll support Kerry in the end.

[faithnotgreed]

12. you know, im not so sure. internals of economist poll

say that it pulls approx 2% from bush and approx 1% from kerry

this is an extensive and respected poll, and it seems about right. if there are lefties who are actually going to pull the lever for nader then they most likely werent going to vote (kerry) anyway

fwiw