Rasmussen Battleground Update for Friday

[louis c]

Bush leads Kerry in the three day tracking poll by 49%-45%. Rounding is 49.2% to 45.2%, which is a .6% Kerry increase from yesterday. This figure narrows to a Bush lead of only 2.6% when leaners are added (50.4%-47.0%). The good news is that in the 16 swing states Kerry holds a slim lead of 46.9%-46.3%. In the same survey, Kerry leads among leaners, 48.9%-47.6%.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com

The seven day rolling average in key states is as follows: Florida, Bush 50%-46% (same for three days in a row); Michigan, Kerry 50%-46% (Kerry leads for the last 8 days by between 3%-6%); North Carolina, Bush 53%-42% (Bush lead is double digits in all but one day of 9% for 10 days); Ohio, Bush 48%-45% (Bush has had lead or tie since 9/13); Pennsylvania, Bush 49%-44% (this is the scariest of numbers, since Bush has taken a lead, and has steadily increased it, since 9/12).

[speedoo]

1. PA is scary.

I don't see how Kerry can win without Pennsylvania, unless he can miraculously win both Ohio and Florida.

[abrock]

2. But you forget...

You forget the inaccurate, biased polling methods AND the 18-24/cellphone vote. Trust me. :)

[louis c]

4. Please, please try to understand polling data

even tracking polls are only a measure in time.

Four points, or even eight, either way, in September or early October are only positioning.

Reagan was behind Carter until the only debate, and he won in a landslide.

Let the thing play out. We have to do our work. I never thought this was wrapped up when Kerry lead by as many as eight points, and I certainly don't think it's over now.

Please be patient. These polls just tell us where we have to do our work, and that John Kerry has to get on message. Don't forget, Bush is still our opponent, and nothing can change that. I like our chances.

[sonicx]

3. I still believe we'll get PA

maybe i'm just stubborn, but i still say we get it!! :)