GALLUP SHOWS BUSH BLOWOUT: 14 POINT LEAD OVER KERRY

[meisje]

Oh Smudge!

I doubt even repukes will believe this one.

[nadinbrzezinski]

1. They will

They will, they will...

[Erika]

27. 14% lead in what area?

Does anyone have any real info on this? Has Gallup released something?

[NEOBuckeye]

2. You'd think Americans would've had enough of getting f*cked up the ass

THE WORLD surely has, and if we won't get rid of Bush on November 2, I'm wondering if our alienated allies and friends may consider taking matters into their own hands.

[eaprez]

3. Who cares. If the repubs think they're up by 14 - then perhaps

some of them will stay home!!!!

[zulchzulu]

6. Ah....overconfidence....the key to beating Repugs

Overconfidence should be a vital force in this election.

I'd love for the Repugs to think it's a blowout and sit it out.

Hook in water with worm. 1,2,3,4... CAUGHT!

[eaprez]

9. or the flip side is....if they make the impression that they are up by....

...14 then no one will bat an eye when they steal the election because they were up by 14 anyway.

[CitySky]

14. hate to admit

but this is what worries me too.

[physaf]

18. that's a good possibility

... will consider

[liberal N proud]

44. This I fear is exactly what the poll numbers are about!

[zulchzulu]

4. Does Smudge have the MOE on the poll

..if you catch my drift...

[Protected]

5. "Bush Blowout"

Do any of these people happen to have a calendar?

[EthanAllenVt]

7. Who did the repubs pay of to report this nonsense?

No way this is real. I think they are running scared and this is their only defense.

[unfrigginreal]

12. The report is real it's the poll that's phony

but I'm sure we'll see 10-15 threads about it when it comes out tomorrow. Freeps get excited about the damndest things around here.

[eaprez]

20. or as I stated previously, its a cover for them to steal the election...

..because after all, they were up by 14 before the voting started!

[zulchzulu]

8. When Drudge uses "blow", I assume it is wishful thinking on his part

Sorry Drudge. Pay little Pablo for the deed, you twit.

[ruggerson]

40. Oh, did Drudge stiff a hustler? So to speak n/t

[EndElectoral]

10. Harris has Kerry up one..go figger?

[Guaranteed]

11. Gallup oughta be sued for this.

It's become blatantly obvious that they're fudging their own numbers on purpose.

[alittlelark]

16. No Kidding!!!!!

This is a big stinking pile of BU*HIT!

[Onlooker]

13. Didn't Gallup do the same thing to Gore?

I seem to remember Gallup did the same thing to Gore, and then a few days before the election started to show the race getting close. Gallup either uses a terrible methodology or they're corrupt. They used to be regarded as Republican leaning, and now I suppose they're wingnuts.

[alittlelark]

17. They are corrupt

...just my opinion, but I am sooo sure.

[onecent]

15. Got a call from the Gallup poll today..and here's what was said...

I answered on the phone downstairs, and didn't have caller ID, so they asked if Mr. XXXXX was at home. I said he wasn't, could I take a message. he said they would call back.

I go upstairs...caller id says "gallup poll"...with a phone number with a 402 area code.

This is the 3rd call wanting "Mr. XXXX"...because about 2 weeks ago he was polled about abortion and he told them it was up to the woman...it's her body....(Boy, my influence has been working, wow)...

Why can't the gallup poll people TALK with a woman? Just curious.

[shockingelk]

26. They randomly pick rules as to who to poll

If they poll whoever answers the phone in the household, the poll would reflect the opinion of people who answer the phone.

That's when the numbers are picked randomly.

In this case they're probably randomly choosing registered voters to call.

[okieinpain]

19. the only place I see a 14 point lead is among 420 registered voters. weird

[skooooo]

23. Where are you seeing this? link?

[shockingelk]

33. link:

It's Matt Drudge's headline ... he doesn't link to the AP article that says ...

"A Gallup poll being released Friday has Bush up 54-40 in a three-way matchup, with Ralph Nader (news - web sites) at 3 percent."

because it also says ...

"The Pew poll found the race at 46-46 among registered voters, and 47-46 Bush among likely voters"

link

[WI_DEM]

21. Gallup again, so what? we have four polls in 24-hours showing a

dead heat. Gallup is fucking looney.

[Union Thug]

22. Pew and Harris show a dead heat

at least that's what I heard on the way home from work.

[still_one]

24. something is wrong

Today two polls, one from Harris said the election is even

gallop has always put Kerry at a disadvantage, even when the other polls said Kerry was ahead

Either Gallop is right, and the other pollsters are wrong, or Gallop can no longer do polls

Based on how they did in 2000, I tend to believe they methods are screwded

[shockingelk]

28. It's likely because of the different methods of chosing ...

... how to define a "likely voter"

[shockingelk]

30. Has enybody figured this out ...

In a two-way race, what would the largest % of popular vote a candidate could get and still lose the electoral vote?

IE, 100% in TX, GA, UT, ID, etc vote for Jr and 51% in NY, CA, etc vote for Kerry?

It would be at least 75% I would think ...

[TruthIsAll]

41. Effect of national vote on Kerry EV win probability

Win Prob	59.60%	67.96%	77.08%	85.32%	95.10%
					
National %	50.73	51.09	51.45	51.81	52.52

Those numbers work for Kerry. He can win with less than 50%
because his best states have large electoral votes (IL, PA,
CA, NY, etc... 

Bush cannot win with less than 50% because his big states have
a relatively small EV count. (Utah, ND, SD, NE, etc.)

[shockingelk]

43. Thanks

You actually came to mind as I posed the question. That helps.

I was more looking for a number that shows just how meaningless the popular vote is in terms of EVs. I think it would calm down those freaking out about some of the national poll numbers we're seeing.

[Walt Starr]

25. Has Gallup shown Kerry in the lead even once?

Seriously?

[A-Schwarzenegger]

38. At least not since 8/1 among likely voters... see link

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh2004.htm

[Erika]

29. Is There Any Proof of this?

Where are the articles that are making everyone so hyper?

[shockingelk]

31. link:

"A Gallup poll being released Friday has Bush up 54-40 in a three-way matchup, with Ralph Nader (news - web sites) at 3 percent."

link

[Oilwellian]

32. Gallup calls the same people

I remember DU'er Starpass wrote of a call she received from Gallup. At the end of the questioning, they asked if they could call her back sometime to participate in another poll. Apparently, they don't call people at random if they keep a list of call-backs.

[shockingelk]

34. That's for different purposes

For instance, if you're undecided they may in the future wish to poll those who were recently undecided.

[A-Schwarzenegger]

35. GALLUP HAS NEVER HAD KERRY AHEAD

since 8/1 at least among likely voters...
http://www.pollingreport.com/wh2004.htm

[Hanzo72]

36. numbers don't mean anything

Really, we're in early september. The nation is fickle and soon voters will decide they're not quite sure again, or change their minds completely. I think it's going to be a total horse race until the undecideds walk into the voting booth and make up their minds, just like 2000 but hopefully without the Florida ugliness.

[deadparrot]

37. This has gotten so ridiculous, even I don't believe it...

and I'm as gullible as they come.

This country is far too divided right now for * to be up 14. Hell, Kerry's not up 14 either. I just laugh, this poll is so screwy.

[sonicx]

39. fuck gallup. they can go fuck themselves too. nt

[Davis_X_Machina]

42. Sorry, but if I own six thermometers,

and one of them tells me it's 90 degrees, and the others tell me it's 60-something, I'm not going to run around in a t-shirt and shorts.

Hell, even if I had one thermometer, and it told me it's 90 degrees, but I see geese flying south, and leaves turning, I'm still not going to run around in a t-shirt and shorts.