Three national polls out today: All show race tied

[lancdem]

Democracy Corps, Bush up 1; Harris, Kerry up 1; Pew, even.

Hey, Dubya, Kerry's back and we're ready to kick some ass! Let's take this big mo all the way through Nov. 2.

[Leilani]

1. Good news!

Swift boat liars & convention bounce have faded.

People realize their country is STILL screwed up, regardless of spin.

[DaveinMD]

2. I told everyone to chill out

this is a close race and convention bounce wasn't going to last. Kerry is right there and he is on his game now.

[dlviper]

3. All hail Dave!

[DaveinMD]

4. thanks

but hardly necessary.

[Nicholas_J]

5. Latest State Polls Show Kerry ahead in

MN: RCP Avg: Kerry 46.8, Bush 44.4
MI: Gallup: Kerry +6 | SV: Kerry +6
OR: ARG: Kerry 47, Bush 45, Nader 2
WA: ARG: Kerry 51, Bush 44, Nader 2
ME: ARG: Kerry 48, Bush 44, Nader 4


Even the latest Strategic Visions (very Republican Pollster) Show Kerry ahead in Minnesota.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/

[ruggerson]

6. Actually 4 polls: ARG has Kerry up by 3

[Nicholas_J]

7. The Republican Analysts

Have all indicated that if Bush cannot maintain at least a three point lead in the national polls, he is not likely to win the election, as during the last three weeks, the majotrity of undecided voters historically have tended to vote againt the incumbent.

Historically, this means that if Kerry can keep polling equal with Bush, at the end there is still a good chance that he will beat Bush by a slim margin.

Different pollsters keeping track of electoral votes have either Bush ahead, or Kerry ahead, depending on the methods they use.

IN the end, if Kerry loses either Pennsylvania or Michigan, he loses the race.

If Bush loses any one of four states Arizona, Arkansas, Tennessee or Colorado, he will lose the race, given the closeness of the race and the closeness in a number of states.

[DaveinMD]

8. also

the polls are likely underestimated turnout on our side. We saw that in 2000 and it will be even more dramatic this time.

[Nicholas_J]

9. Thats because

They dont accurately reflect polling by population but by geographic area. They poll more rural and suburban areas, and not by population concentration, so they poll more people in areas that have less population. THese areas favor Bush but are not where the majority of the population is (the cities which favor Kerry)

[DaveinMD]

10. the reason

is that they base turnout based on models for previous elections. Gore polled worse than he performed becaused turnout among African Americans was higher than expected. Kerry may do better because more young people will be voting.