More good poll news due out today

[quaoar]

The Pew poll will be released later today. The previous poll after the RNC showed Bush with a 52-40 lead among registered voters and a 54-39 lead among likely voters.

The new poll is expected to be a tie.

http://people-press.org/

[kwolf68]

1. And the spin?

Wonder if they will even compare this to the recent poll.

Its just like the polling that shows * drawing a larger margin among white male voters who enjoy Budweiser beer and shoot dixie cups of their wives navels...

They don't say that white male voters who enjoy Budweiser beer and shoot dixie cups of their wives navels, voted for Bush in even Larger numbers in 2000.

They compare between vairables that give Bush the best view.

The polling in Ohio is what makes no sense. They did regional polling and the more populated areas were more Democratic...The total aggregate #s showed Kerry should be leading 51% to 49% but for some reason they give it a tie. The numbers in Ohio are the most misleading I have ever seen.

I think if we match the GOP in GOTV and split 50/50 on undecideds we easily win there.

[Teaser]

2. Expected by whom?

I never like to set upside expectations. People get too upset if they aren't met.

[quaoar]

3. No doubt

But that's what it will say.

[ItsMyParty]

4. Has then been released yet??

After reading a few posts here about NJ, IL, and Rassmussen, etc. I'm rather depressed. I know Harris this a.m. was posted and it has Kerry up by 1% over Bush and is apparently cited in the Wall Street Journal.

[0rganism]

5. I don't get it. Who are these people who change their minds?

The TV covers the convention heavily, to be sure. But do so many people put their faith into whatever media happens to be covering at the time that they'll temporarily change the way they vote because of a convention coverage spike? Insanity.

"Wuhl, ah wuzn't so shure about bush at first, then ah sees da con... convunt... convekshun, and that bush shur looked mitey fahn. But nauw, ah'm thinkin' he ain't so pruhsidenshal anny moore."

Are we too retarded to be a democracy?

[johnnyrocket]

6. Media headline: 'Bush winning in the polls'...

( by half of those that WERE polled )

[quaoar]

7. Here's the poll results

http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?ReportID=224

Voter opinion in the presidential race has seesawed dramatically in the first two weeks of September. Following a successful nominating convention, George W. Bush broke open a deadlocked contest and jumped out to a big lead over John Kerry. However, polling this past week finds that Bush's edge over his Democratic rival has eroded. Reflecting this new volatility in the race, the size of the swing vote has increased slightly since the summer, rather than contracting as it typically does as the election approaches.

The latest national survey of 1,972 registered voters by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted in two waves over a seven-day period, finds that the president's large margin of support in the initial period (Sept. 8-10) dissipated in the polling conducted Sept. 11-14. Among all registered voters Bush initially led Kerry by 52%-40%. However, the second wave of interviewing shows the race even among registered voters, at 46%-46%. When the sample is narrowed to likely voters, Bush holds a statistically insignificant lead of 47%-46% in the second wave, down from a huge 54%-38% advantage he held in the first wave of interviews.

The shifting voter sentiment observed in this poll reflects a number of cross currents in public opinion. Hard-hitting attacks against the Democratic challenger throughout August and during the Republican convention took a heavy toll on Kerry's personal image. Kerry's positive support waned, fewer voters expressed confidence in him to deal with major issues, and perceptions of him as a 'flip-flopper' rose noticeably.

In contrast, Bush improved his personal image in early September and erased or reduced his rival's advantage on most issues. At the same time, however, Bush showed continued vulnerability on Iraq and the economy. A plurality of the public still disapproved of the president's stewardship of the economy. While opinion of his handling of Iraq has inched up since the early summer, nearly six-in-ten voters (58%) say it is not clear what Bush will do about Iraq if he is reelected.

[Beetwasher]

8. I'd Really Like To Meet One Of These Knuckleheads Who Change

Their mind from day to day...It's amazing to me that there are people really that gullible and impressionable...But then again maybe it shouldn't...:shrug: