http://www.emergingdemocraticmajorityweblog.com/donkeyrising/September 16, 2004
Persuadable Voters Still Not Persuaded
Even as Bush has opened up a small lead in the national polls--and I've tried to offer some evidence in my posts that this lead is underwhelming--evidence has been accumulating that he remains weak among the kind of independent and swing voters he needs to form an electoral majority.
In fact, the Annenberg Election Survey has just released data that indicate, while Bush made some small gains among the overall electorate when comparing the pre-GOP convention and post-GOP convention periods, he has actually lost ground among "persuadable voters" (those voters who are undecided or who say there is a "good chance" they could change their mind about the candidate they currently support).
For example, Bush's favorability rating fell from 47 percent favorable/30 percent unfavorable among persuadables in August (August 9-29) to 43/33 after the GOP convention (September 3-12). And Kerry's rating among this group actually has gone up: from 36/25 to 43/25 (now somewhat better than Bush's).
In addition, Bush's overall job rating among persuadables is now 44 percent approval/49 percent disapproval; his job rating on the economy is 32/63 and his job rating on Iraq is 34/59. Even his job rating on terrorism is only 50/41. And all of these ratings are now lower among persuadables, not higher, than they were in August
Bush has also lost significant ground among persuadables since August on some key candidate characteristics including "cares about people like me", "shares my values", "out of touch with people like me", "stubborn" and "arrogant". These voters are now more liikely, not less likely, to think the positive attributes apply to Kerry and the negative attributes to Bush.
In short, the persuadables aren't persuaded and appear to be ripe for Democratic gains. What's the key? One possibility is Iraq. Persuadables are now less convinced than ever that Bush has a clear plan for bringing the situation in Iraq to a successful conclusion--just 17 percent now think so. Unfortunately, only 15 percent of persuadables think Kerry has such a plan--not much of a difference and not even one in Kerry's favor.
Make that difference a big one in Kerry's favor and Bush's weakness among persuadables could translate into big gains for the Democratic ticket.
Posted by Ruy Teixeira at 12:51 AM | link | Comments (25)
September 15, 2004
Kerry Holds Strong Lead in MN
A new Minneapolis Star-Tribune Poll conducted Sept. 10-13 has John Kerry leading George Bush 50-41 among Minnesota LV's, with 1 percent for other and 8 percent unsure.
Posted by EDM Staff at 04:16 PM | link | Comments (40)
Kerry Up by 7 in Michigan
John Kerry leads George Bush 50-43 percent among Michigan RV's, with 1 percent for Nader and 6 percent neither/unsure, according to a CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll conducted Sept. 10-13.
Posted by EDM Staff at 03:52 PM | link | Comments (5)
Now Available: Latest Democracy Corps Analysis By Stanley Greenberg and James Carville
The latest strategy analysis by Democracy Corps is now available on the D-corps website. The report is based on Democracy Corps September 6-9 survey of 1004 likely voters and features an extended analysis by leading strategists Stanley Greenberg and James Carville of where the campaign now stands and what the polling data suggests Kerry should do. Here are a few key excerpts:
1. The president has a lead of about 5 points, if we look at the average of all the public polls done after the convention; the Democracy Corps poll completed last Thursday shows the president with a 3-point lead. In any case, Bush is at 49 percent with the former estimate and 48 in our survey. At the height of Bush’s convention bounce, he is just at the edge of electability. His position is simply not that strong. If his bounce recedes, as it did for Kerry, and if Kerry takes the race to Bush, the president could easily be endangered again.
2. A majority of the country still wants change. By 53 to 41 percent, voters think the country is headed in the wrong direction; by 51 to 46 percent, they want to go in a significantly different direction than Bush. The mood for change is even greater among independents (57 to 35 percent) and battleground state voters (55 to 40 percent). 14 percent of the electorate is comprised of Bush voters thinking things are going wrong.
3. Part of the stability of this race are the grave doubts voters feel about George Bush. These doubts about Bush are largely undiminished in the last month: Bush favors corporate interests over the public interest (60 percent serious doubts), is too ready to go to war (58 percent), spending too much abroad and neglecting home (54 percent), and made mistakes in Iraq that shortchange America at home (54 percent).
4. While Bush has gained on having plans for Iraq and it bringing more security, a stable majority says the war was not worth it. Just 43 percent believe we are making progress there, and this is before recent developments in Iraq, with increased fighting.
5. And on the economy, voters by nearly two-to-one reject Bush’s assertion that the middle class is making gains .... Bush could not be more out of sync, even as he is compelled to make the case for progress.
Posted by EDM Staff at 02:27 PM | link | Comments
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