9/22 HOT ARG! ELECTION MODEL: KERRY 306 EV, 94% WIN PROB, 50.8% VOTE

[TruthIsAll]

I told you all last night that today would be
(A)nother (R)eally (G)reat day for Kerry.

Well, here's ARG updates teamed with the latest Zogby.

Kerry is not that far from his Aug. peak of 332 EV and 52% (99.9% prob).

Enjoy!

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

[mconvente]

1. SWEET

AWESOME NEWS!!!! Spectacular!! Gotta keep this momentum going guys!

[cthrumatrix]

10. why doesn't the national media report this poll...?????? cowards & crooks

[hlthe2b]

2. this still includes all the bogus Gallop and NYT polls?

[TruthIsAll]

6. No, those are national polls. I have updated the State polls

and ran 5000 simulation trials to arrive at these results.

Look at the latest state numbers from these REPUTABLE independent pollsters.

The national independents (Zogby, ARG, etc). reflect a tie...

[Goldmund]

7. I don't really understand...

...how "a tie" can translate into a 94% win probability.

[TruthIsAll]

8. Let me explain. Kerry is TIED in the independent national polls,

but is leading in the states with the most electoral votes. I run the simulation using the latest state polls as a base. Right now, they are mostly Zogby and ARG state polls. Zogby also does a national poll, as does ARG.

The model calculates Kerry win probabilities based on his average electoral vote in 5000 trials.

I project five cases (of 5000 trials each) in which Kerry is assumed to win 50,55,60, 67,75% of the undecided vote. The base case for the model is 60%. Historically, undecideds have consistently voted for the challenger.

There are 51 state and 18 national polls in the model.

I also calculate win probabilities based on the national vote. Right now, Bush has a 2% lead, if you average the INDEPENDENT (tie) and the CORPORATE POLLSTERS (+4% Bush).

The model weights the state votes into an equivalent national percentage.

Even though ARG shows Bush ahead 47-46 in the popular vote, he is trailing in electoral votes.

Hope that clears it up.

[Goldmund]

11. Sure does --

thanks!

[Liberal_Andy]

3. Thanks, I needed that...

good news!

[maxsolomon]

4. always impressive

always confusing.

i've just decided to trust you!

[TruthIsAll]

13. Max, just look at the graphs...they tell the story.

I would be happy to answer any questions you may have.

I know it's a lot of numbers, but concentrate on the first screen, the graphs and the report which compares Kerry's poll numbers to Gore as well as to Bush's poll numbers.

[hippiegranny]

5. the hippiegranny bumpersticker daily poll today

Kerry/Edwards - 8
Smirk/Sneer - 2

[natrat]

9. good cuz

every morning when i see the huge * electoral college lead on cspan it makes me a liitle sick :(.

[DeepModem Mom]

12. Thanks, TIA!

[DeepModem Mom]

14. self-delete -- double post