Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania: 2 out of the 3, We WIN!

[liberalpragmatist]

It's likely that whoever wins the election will win 2 out of these 3 states. However, if you start doing the arithmetic, we're actually at a slight advantage over Bush in this regard. Here's why:

If we lose all 3, then we're done. However, while winning 2 out of the 3 would make us definite champs, we're still in a pretty good spot if we can win ONE out of the 3. The Kerry campaign has good pickup opportunities elsewhere in places like Nevada, Colorado, New Hampshire, Arkansas, Missouri, West Virginia and maybe Virginia (although these last four haven't been encouraging from recent polls).

If Bush loses 2 out of the 3, stick a fork in him: he's done. It's very difficult to see where else he can make up that ground. If he were to lose, say, Ohio and Pennsylvania, it's virtually impossible for him to make up the lost ground, unless he won BOTH Minnesota and Wisconsin. If he were to lose Florida and Pennsylvania, the only way he could win would be if he were to win Minnesota, Wisconsin, and either Washington, Oregon, or Iowa. Out of those, both Washington and Oregon look safe. Iowa's had some bad poll #'s for us lately, but in the end I think it'll go Blue. Wisconsin seems most likely to flip, and Minnesota will probably be close, but will probably go to Kerry - Bush has been close all along, but has never led a Minnesota poll.

On another note, if the networks were to call two out of these three states by, say, 9:00 PM for KERRY, then we can be quite sure that Kerry's won, and despite the RW media spin, I honestly think that most of the major networks (maybe not FOX) will essentially start saying that Bush is done. Especially if by 9 or 10 they call Ohio, Florida AND Pennsylvania for us, it'll be quite clear that there's no way Bush can recover, given that the inevitable addition to our total of California, Oregon, and Washington will put us over the top. Remember how after the networks called Florida for Gore, the pundits started gabbing about how it was going to be "very hard" for Bush to come back? Well, of course, they flip-flopped and the rest is history.

But the point is that we may not be in for a very long night.

[sonicx]

1. yes, but...

ohio is scary, cuz even with their bad jobs situation, bush is ahead alittle.

and florida's scary for obvious reasons...

[Dangeresque]

2. www.electoral-vote.com

They support your analysis. Today's map has Kerry at 269 of the 270 needed to win, with Arkansas and Maryland dead even...and Kerry should get Maryland. Pennsylvania and Florida are in Kerry's court, although I have my doubts that Florida will remain there.

[starbuck6446]

3. Don't you think the media will reserve making any calls?

I think they'll want to avoid calling it wrong.. again..
and... since the "drama" from last year, they'll think ratings might be higher if it's a "close" race. My guess is they'll make it seem close just to get higher ratings.

[vpigrad]

4. sigh

> If we lose all 3, then we're done

Maybe, but maybe not. You have to realize that all of the polls by honest people show Kerry ahead. If the government officals are honest, we will have no trouble in Nov.

[Parche]

5. magic 200

If he has 200 electorates going into the midwest
by 830-9pm then we have won

because you count NM, CA, OR,WA and HI and that would put over 70

[Doctor_J]

6. i've written off FL

sorry, it's a banana republic down there. the chances of them having an honest election are abou tthe same as * doing an hour-long speech w/o a prompter. if the purges don't work, they'll intimidate voters. if too many dem's show up anyway. they've got diebold. if that doesn't work, they'll stop counting.

Better to concentrate on OH.

[The Chronicler]

7. If we lose PA, we lose the election IMO

No way Kerry should lose PA. I also wouldn't underestimate him in FL either. His anti-war on Iraq/pro social security positions should help him in south FL.

[featherman]

8. Kerry will win PA barring a complete meltdown of his

candidacy. At this point the battle centers on NV, FL, OH, WV possibly split CO. WI and IA will vote DEM as they have for 4 straight elections.
West Coast is safe.
Kerry has 264 by my reckoning (Gore states plus NH). Where he gets the next six or more is the main conjecture.

I like NV (5) for Kerry a lot. DEMS lead there in voter registration for the first time in history. Yucca Mountain.
OH and FL still very good for Kerry. There is a lot of positive stuff going on in the bunkers there. A lot depends on turnout.

WV, AR, MO are likely trending "southern GOP" in outlook but can still be flipped to DEM with a strong effort. AZ and CO are not out of reach.

[roseBudd]

9. Please come to Ohio to help!

Call 513-281-1500 in SW Ohio to help.