Campaign nuts and bolts - Florida

[featherman]

http://www.sptimes.com/2004/08/13/Decision2004/Democrats_outhustling.shtml

"President Bush's prospects in Florida are looking increasingly shaky.

Barely 80 days before election day, signs abound that Democrats are outperforming Republicans in the state Bush virtually has to win to gain another term in the White House.

Republicans had vowed an unprecedented voter registration program, but Democrats are far outpacing them in registration gains.

Democrats have far more operatives on the ground, thanks largely to well-funded liberal organizations aggressively working to mobilize John Kerry supporters".

The above was written in August. Campaigns are ground wars, folks, and all about who generates the turnout. I cannot count the number of DUer's who seem inclined to write off Florida because of some misunderstanding of its demographics or paranoia about Jeb and his minions. Screw that. Bush absolutely needs Florida and cannot win without it. He's the one at risk here.

History: FL is not a GOP state. It is a battleground trending DEM. Orange County (Orlando) for example had voted GOP EVERY election until 1996. But Gore won Orange in 2000 by an even larger margin than Clinton had. This is a trend.
Other Trends:
Cuban support for Bush is down, Arab-American support for Bush has flipped from plus to big minus (about 50,000 voters in this group).
Non-Cuban Hispanics are the fastest growing demographic and predominantly registering DEM.
African-Americans are still very angry about disenfranchisement in 2000 and will likely register and go to the polls in record numbers.

Keep energized and keep organized. Turnout is our friend and the spotlight will be so strong on FL that Jeb's old tricks won't work this time.

[NMDemDist2]

1. excellent thanks! nt

[jerryster]

2. Excellent!

I love that Glenda Hood was forced to scrap the 2004 phony felon list. Could it have been more despicably racist? I do have a typical liberal worry that Nader could hurt us again. I grew up admiring him and now I have unspeakable thoughts. Well, mostly unspeakable. I will speak and say HE'S AN ASSHOLE!

My other concern is that I'm not convinced African Americans are that energized in Florida or the rest of the country for that matter. If you are from Florida could you give me your read on their feelings about this election? I'd appreciate it.

[CrispyQ]

3. "...but Democrats are far outpacing them in registration gains."

I think that is true EVERYWHERE!

I predict: Kerry by a landslide. (in spite of BBV!)