Latest ARG poll (September 22) Race is dead heat.

[Nicholas_J]

How close is the race for president?

George W. Bush is at 47% and John Kerry is at 46% in the weighted national popular vote.

Bush leads outside the margin of error in 17 states with 133 electoral votes.

Kerry leads outside the margin of error in 10 states with 132 electoral votes.

Bush has any lead in 29 states with 253 electoral votes.

Kerry has any lead in 20 states with 270 electoral votes.

Bush and Kerry are tied in Wisconsin and West Virginia.

Bush needs to defend small leads in 5 states - Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Ohio.

Kerry needs to defend small leads in 5 states - Maine, Florida, Minnesota, Oregon, and Pennsylvania.

Among men nationwide, 51% say they would vote for Bush and 42% say they would vote for Kerry.

Among women nationwide, 42% say they would vote for Bush and 50% say they would vote for Kerry.

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com

Like Zpgby. ARG has Kerry in the lead in Electoral votes with Kerry holding exactly the 270 EV needed to win.

[DaveinMD]

1. wow

scary close. It may be another late night.

[Nicholas_J]

2. Zogby's latest interactive

HAs even higher Electoral votes for Kerry with Zogby assigning 296 electoral votes to Kerry.

These are two different types of polls, Zogby being an interactive tracking poll and ARG just being a regular poll. They are not oversampling any particular party, so they are the most reliable.

The fact that two differnet methods of polling show Kerry leading in the Electoral College is very good for Kerry.