how likely is it that JK could lose popular vote but win ev?

[onenote]

Everytime I see one of these nationwide polls showing JK trailing bush, it occurs to me that Bush may win a number of states, particularly deep south and some western states, by big margins, while JK may just eke out narrow victories in many states. If bush improves on his margins from 2000 in a bunch of states, but JK stays close to Gore's totals everywhere else, could we end up with JK pulling out the electoral college victory, but losing the popular vote? And if that happens, how many repugs heads will explode?

onevote

[John Q. Citizen]

1. It's a definate possibility.

At least this year people are already preparing for the possibility.

[Bok_Tukalo]

2. I have a guilty pleasure

It is the thought that we have another electoral/popular inversion. I have thought the Electoral College to be incredibly stupid since I was 11 years old and my dad explained it to me during the '76 election. It would be nice to get the Republicans irritated with it.

That's my devil talking.

My rational side wants an end to plurality governing and a clear majority winner this election.

[tritsofme]

3. Not very likely at all

You don't win big margins of the popular vote by winning the vote of 20 of the 22 people that live in Utah.

It is more likely that if bush pulls off a win, it could be a similar situation as 2000 where he wins the EC but looses the popular vote.

We will win by big margins in states that have a large amount of electoral votes and larger populations such as California, New York, and Illinois.

The only really big state the GOP will win big this year is Texas, and I don't even think they broke 60% for * in 2000.

The GOP wins lots of smaller states in the West and Plains that have disproporionate power in the EC and small populations.

While it would be poetic justice for your scenario to play out, I find it highly unlikely.

[AndyTiedye]

4. We Need to Win by a Landslide -- They'll Steal It if it's Close

[TruthIsAll]

13. How many times must you be reminded that Bush LOST the EV?

He LOST FL by over 50,000 so he had to steal it.

With the help of Jeb Bush and SCOTUS.

[indie_voter]

5. I don't see this happening

Gore won the popular vote. For Bush to win the popular vote he would have to either get more of his base out to vote or convert some Nader/Gore people (or register new voters).

Is this possible, especially with the economy and Iraq?

Kerry on the other hand has the advantage of angry fence sitters, Gore voters and Nader voters.

MHO, Kerry wins both EC and popular vote or he loses.

My bet is he wins both.

[Renew Deal]

6. It sure would be funny.

Freeper heads would explode, but they would be total hypocrites to say anything.

[secular_warrior]

7. I highly doubt a Democrat will lose the popular vote and win the EC

The way the EC is setup, the smaller, rural red states have far more power than the larger, metro blue states.

If a 2000 situation were to happen again, it is much more likely it would be the Repubs again to lose the popular vote but win the EC.

Democrats outnumber Republicans by a significant margin. If Democrats voted as consistently as Republicans do, we would've had a governing majority a long time ago. However, Democrats do turn out for the presidential elections, which is why the actual Democratic presidential vote usually turns out to be 2 to 3 percent higher than polls.

Look at it this way: Democrats have not lost the popular vote since 1988.

[TruthIsAll]

8. It's just the opposite. Dems can lose pop. vote and win; Repukes cannot.

Dems can win close races in fewer big states while the Repukes win big in more states (south, plains and mountain).

The Dems can with 49.5% of the two-party vote; the repukes cannot.

[secular_warrior]

9. ??? But the Republicans lost the pop vote in 2000 but won in EC

Maybe statistically/theoretically there are more outcomes where Democrats can win the EC and lose the popular vote, but I think in reality it is much more likely to be the other way around. Dem strongholds tend to be densely populated, metro states like California and New York where they run up the raw vote. Repub strongholds (except for Texas) tend to be smaller and rural and more spread out, and have far more electoral power per vote than blue states. IIRC, a vote in Wyoming is worth three times what a vote in California is worth, electorally speaking.

[TruthIsAll]

11. For the 1000th time: GORE WON FLORIDA! It was stolen!

He won by at least 50,000 votes.

Therefore he WON the EC.

After all this time you STILL deny the facts?

[secular_warrior]

12. Not denying anything. I'm the first one to say it was stolen.

But for argument's sake, even if Bush got the 50,001 legitimate votes needed to win Florida, Gore still would've won the popular vote by about 480,000 votes, while Bush would've legitimately won the EC.

I'm merely trying to point out the disadvantage we face with the EC -- it clearly favors red states while the popular vote favors blue.

[dave29]

10. I think the Supreme Court has Ruled on This

:cough: