Hey Florida! How is the race shaping up?

[Nightjock]

I know you've been thinking weather more than politics lately, but I don't believe the polls (and even if I did most say it is close.)

There was a very optimistic topic about Kerry in Ohio here yesterday and I was wondering if some Floridians could tell us how they see the race from an "on the ground perspective."

Thanks.

[cthrumatrix]

1. everyone knows the polls are tight....

I perosnally think the senior vote will go to Kerry in a huge way ...they don't trust shrub on soc sec and medicare.

The adds on healthcare are running b4 the 6:30 nightly news.


The Hurricane counties...god bless them..haven't been polled...who knows how they feel...most of those counties were majority repug.

The largest issue is "computer voting"...there's been scandals with the new machines and you can trust Jeb & the mafia to utlize computer voting to steal again.

[2Design]

3. seniors remember world war II and hltler - they can see the problem

[samurai_jack]

2. so-so

The state is split right down the middle, and it will remain that way until election day. Victory will be entirely dependent on turning out Democratic base voters.

The Kerry-Edwards campaign in state leaves much to be desired; they have taken forever to get their operation off the ground. However, there is a great volume of 527 and grassroots activity that really has been outstanding. Enough work has been done that we can feel confident that if we put in the election day machinery, we have enough solid Democratic votes, we will win.

[Blue Wally]

4. Broward County

1. Kerry campaign HQ for the county is in an inaccessible, hard-to-find place.

2. County Kerry campaign and county Democratic committee don't seem to be hitting it off too well.

3. I have seen exactly one Kerry yard sign so far.

4. Republicans pulled their candidate running opposite the only AA office holder (Brenda Snipes) thus reducing the incentive of AA to go to the polls in support of one of theirs.

[Synnical]

8. East Broward - Yard Sign in my yard

I also have bumper stickers on my car and wear a Kerry 2004 pin - and I've received many compliments on the pin. I've seen many Kerry/Edwards bumper stickers and exactly one B/C04 sticker. That upset and annoyed me so much I forgot to lock my car that day.

Bad thing for Broward County - no paper trail, no recounts.

I voted by absentee ballot in the primary, plan on doing so again in November. On the upside, Broward county votes overwhelmingly for the Democratic party.

[ShaneGR]

5. Hurricanes could play a bigger factor than people thing

All you have to do is take a look at where Charlie, Fran, and Ivan hit. All Red counties. That's right, the eye of Fran and Charlie passed directly over nothing but red counties, while the side of Ivan smashed the panhandle. Will this make a difference in voter turnout in those areas? Time will tell.

[featherman]

6. Something on Florida from my post of yesterday

http://www.sptimes.com/2004/08/13/Decision2004/Democrat...

"President Bush's prospects in Florida are looking increasingly shaky.

Barely 80 days before election day, signs abound that Democrats are outperforming Republicans in the state Bush virtually has to win to gain another term in the White House.

Republicans had vowed an unprecedented voter registration program, but Democrats are far outpacing them in registration gains.

Democrats have far more operatives on the ground, thanks largely to well-funded liberal organizations aggressively working to mobilize John Kerry supporters".

The above was written in August. Campaigns are ground wars, folks, and all about who generates the turnout. I cannot count the number of DUer's who seem inclined to write off Florida because of some misunderstanding of its demographics or paranoia about Jeb and his minions. Screw that. Bush absolutely needs Florida and cannot win without it. He's the one at risk here.

History: FL is not a GOP state. It is a battleground trending DEM. Orange County (Orlando) for example had voted GOP EVERY election until 1996. But Gore won Orange in 2000 by an even larger margin than Clinton had. This is a trend.
Other Trends:
Cuban support for Bush is down, Arab-American support for Bush has flipped from plus to big minus (about 50,000 voters in this group).
Non-Cuban Hispanics are the fastest growing demographic and predominantly registering DEM.
African-Americans are still very angry about disenfranchisement in 2000 and will likely register and go to the polls in record numbers.

Keep energized and keep organized. Turnout is our friend and the spotlight will be so strong on FL that Jeb's old tricks won't work this time.

[featherman]

7. More interesting info on this thread also

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x886877#886882