New Polls from Iowa, Michigan, Ohio & Pennsylvania

[WI_DEM]

From Opinion Dynamics which polls for Fox.

Nationally they have Bush up 45-43, and they also have polls for the following "battleground" states.

Iowa, Bush up 48-45
Ohio, Bush up 48-44
Michigan, Kerry up 46-44
Pennsylvania, Kerry up 48-45

Other polls have Kerry leading in Iowa and a bigger edge in Michigan.

On whether the national economy is improving:
In Iowa by a 52-44 margin voters say "NO"
In Michigan by a 57-35 margin voters say "No"
In Ohio by a 55-39 margin voters say "NO"
In Pennsylvania by a 54-39 margin voters say "No"

But overall voters favor Kerry on the economy over Bush by only 1-point.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,133350,00.html

Another encouraging thing--10% of Dems are "undecided" and 20% of Independents. Most Reps have made up their minds. I think, most dems will come home to Kerry and alot of Indies will too.

[Jack_Dawson]

1. People can't be this stupid, can they?

I guess they can. :shrug:

[faithnotgreed]

2. they mostly got the economy question right. its a start

[Cha]

10. That's what I was thinking! They actually

buy what bush and cnn, msrnc are selling about the economy, et al?

[Andromeda]

19. Yes, they can.

It's hard to believe but some people don't pay any attention to politics. They think it doesn't make any difference if you vote Dem or Rethug.

The fundies will vote for Bush no matter what. They can be jobless, homeless and dying of a disease because they can't afford medical insurance.

The smart ones will probably sort it out and come to the conclusion that voting Kerry is the only way out of this mess. These are the people we need to focus on -- the others are so brainwashed they would follow Bush off of a cliff.

[skooooo]

3. In electoral votes..

Michigan + Penn. = 38

Ohio + Iowa = 27

[michigandem2]

4. michigan doesn't seem like it should be THAT close to me

but what do I know...I think its bull..and I am sure that we will get this state by a NUMBER of points..not just 2 or 3

[WI_DEM]

5. but we can't afford to lose Iowa

It went for Gore four years ago.

[xray s]

6. the fact that Bush can't break 50% in those states is good news

Bush's support is weak

[dolstein]

7. As weak as Bush's support is . . .

Kerry's support is just as weak, or weaker, in several battleground states. And thanks to Ralph Nader, Bush doesn't need to get 50% to carry these states.

[xray s]

8. Kerry is still an unknown to many

Kerry's support is soft because he is an unknown. I don't fault Kerry for that, it's just that most people don't pay much attention to the race until about four or five weeks out. He has to break through in the first debate.

People are ready to fire Bush. To be an incumbent and polling under 50% at this point of the game is not a good position to be in.

Bush's fate is in the hands of Kerry in debate #1. I'll take that.

[Joe Turner]

9. Smirk's got his own problems there too

The Libertarian and Constitution Parties combined will peel off a couple of percent off of Smirk's vote. There are a lot of unhappy republicans out there and I would not be surprised if these 2 parties take even more than 2% of the votes that normally goes republican.

[yellowcanine]

11. With a strong debate performance there will be a movement to Kerry. This

is a reprise of the 1980 election not the 2000 election. The voters are not satisfied with the incumbent but they are not quite sure of the challenger. Kerry has it in his power to change that in the debates.

[bush equals idiot]

12. The only thing Bush will be is President of his cows.

The polls are incredibly good for us right now. Look at the polls in only one way. Whatever Bush has can only get worse. And whatever Kerry has will only be greater. Kerry is essentially even right now and he will hand Bush his ass in a knapsack on the debates.

And right now, the pollsters have only one thing they can use to "guess" what the oddball factors are that might offset their other poll results. They have to use the 2000 election exit polls. There isn't even going to be a REMOTE comparison of the last election to what this one will be.

There are record numbers of overseas registrations requested...so many, the Pentagon shut down their website to register. There will be huge numbers of young and first time voters, seniors...and black voters. Bush won't get a fraction of those votes. Farenheit is coming out. That bastard will get creamed. Trust me. Get your popcorn.

[newyawker99]

13. Hi bush equals idiot!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[ShaneGR]

14. In Ohio 2000, Bush supposedly had a 13 point lead with a month left

But he won by 3.5%, so I'm happy with this supposed poll.

[Ell09]

15. Bush won't win Iowa

Living in Iowa, I have seen a number of polls that favor Kerry, and I am convinced we will be voting for the Democrat again.

Some factors:

1. Iowa is EXTREMELY provincial- There's a sense that Iowa "picked" John Kerry, and Iowans would love to feel that the state was the no.1 reason a President was elected.

2. The Republicans in the state congress have been getting some bad press for playing politics with a few important bills which involve education.

3. Vilsack is a fairly popular Governor, and Harkin is a very popular Senator. These are probably the two most visable politicians in the state.

[Zero Division]

18. Remeber the turnout at the Iowa Primaries, as well

The turnout was huge in general, and lots of Republicans came to support Democratic candidates. Iowa is NOT going for Bush. It may be close, but this Iowan will be shocked and disappointed if Iowa turns red on Nov. 2.

[WI_DEM]

21. not as disappointed as this Wisconsinite

if Wi switches--but I trust we won't let it happen.

[Bush was AWOL]

16. If it wasn't for fear Bush would get his ass handed to him

in all of these states!

[ohio_dem_52186]

20. I think that is true, at least here in Ohio.

Whenever I talk to people they always site the war on terror and Bush as Commander in Chief.

Most still believe in the fairy tail of an Iraq-9/11 connnection...

[fujiyama]

17. I think this is good news

Every other poll I've seen has Kerry up by 5+ points here in MI. My guess is Kerry will win it by at least the same margin...that too, my friend that voted for Bush in '00 said he didn't know what the hell he was thinking and that he would nevre vote republican again!

The PA numbers are also very good news. Kerry MUST, abso-freakin-lutely MUST win these two states.