On the "not polling cell-phones" topic

[tcfrogs]

I'm not trying to start a flame war here, but...

According to the director of the Pew Research Center, Andrew Kohut:

Although significantly more voters are using cell phones as their sole home telephone line, Kohut said research shows no more than 3 percent of the electorate has been removed from the polling universe.

Anyone aware of other studies that can give us a percentage that aren't being polled due to cell phone only usage?

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/chi-0409180069sep18,1,5324253.story

[sniffa]

1. what i wouLd Like to add

my househoLd had done a great job of removing ourseLves from Leeching-society - private phone #, private maiLing address - assuming that this info is indeed "private" how wouLd someone Like myseLf ever be poLLed.

[calico1]

4. I never pick up calls from numbers I don't know.

So that leaves me out too.

[Beaverhausen]

2. not about cell phones but

they are also not polling the hundreds of thousands of new voters being registered where I hear the ratio of dems to repubs is 5-2.

Ok just someone at the meet-up I attended last night said that but since we hear so much about new voter registration I believe it!

[HFishbine]

3. 3 percent of the electorate removed from the polling universe?

What the margin of error on that figure?

[On the Road]

5. I'm Surprised the Pollsters Haven't Started Using Random Dialing

That would allow them to connect to unlited numbers, cell phones, etc.

[ClassWarrior]

13. I believe its illegal for pollsters to call cell phones...

...because the user pays for the minutes.

23.

[marlakay]

6. Both of my daughters in their twenties have cell phones only

I think my husband is right that the polls are all screwed up.

[ShaneGR]

7. I am cell phone only

So I guess I'm part of the 3%.

[tcfrogs]

8. Anecdotal evidence doesn't count

Which is why I would believe a research firm (with which I've had had experience) when they feel they have an accurate assessment.

Many keep posting here that so many people they know don't have a land line. It may be true, but I suspect it works both ways. I know some Repug friends that have cell only as well.

[pmbryant]

11. It's not so simple

I have both a landline and a cell. But based on how I use those phones, I can never be polled by a traditional telephone poll.

I have a landline, but the ringer is off, and I use it only to collect voicemail. And on my cell phone, I never answer calls from a number I don't recognize.

Caller ID is also quite common these days for people with landlines (though I don't have it), who may also choose to screen out calls from unrecognized numbers.

I think Mr. Kohut is kidding himself if he thinks only 3% of the population is not accessible to traditional telephone polling.

Peter

[tcfrogs]

12. Not everyone is that savvy

Which is why I tend to believe the number out of the polling universe is somewhere in the 3-5% neighborhood.

[pmbryant]

14. Savvy?

It doesn't take much "savviness" not to answer your phone, or not to talk to people you don't recognize, especially given the flood of telemarketing calls in recent years. And 20% (to pull a number out of thin air) would still be "not everyone", but yet is dramatically larger than 3%.

Again, 3-5% is an awfully small number. I'd like to see an example of this research that shows the 3% number.

Peter

[Jane Austin]

17. Right. We never answer the phone at home.

We only use it for outgoing calls.

[AmyStrange]

9. I only use my land line to connect to the internet...

and I never answer my phone when I'm not on line, because I only get calls from telemarketers or bill collectors,

d

[JohnnyCougar]

10. I'm cell phone only as well

I think alot of kids are, now, too. And guess who kids vote for...}(

Add another 2.5% to our column!

[democraticinsurgent]

15. that 3% is an OLD number

i did some light research on this topic earlier this year; that 3% figure was an industry quoted number that was based on research done during 2003.

we all know how fast things are changing. some people say (lol) that the number is well about 5% and maybe much higher.

So Pew may be right, in that it's the only hard number out there, but it's not to be believed IMHO.

[Radical Activist]

16. Aren't those two statements contradictory?

Are a significant number of the electorate using cell phones only or is it just 3 percent?

[OilemFirchen]

18. 3% insignificant?

Even if the number is correct (highly doubtful), Kohut's assumption is simply asinine. He should be ashamed of himself, but, well...

In a race as tight as this, 3% is monstrously significant, especially when considering polls with +/-3% or worse MOE's.

Sounds like he's been listening to the Global Warming "debunkers". "Two degrees? Bah! What difference does that make?"

[OilemFirchen]

19. Moreso

Kudos to the poster who observed that folks in extreme debt don't answer their phones (land line or otherwise), lest it be a creditor on the other end.

But of course, in this marvelous economy, those people don't exist, do they?

BTW: Dayton, Ohio: 10%+ official unemployment. Record numbers of foreclosures. One large business about to downsize... again. Toledo, Cleveland, Akron, Canton all feeling intense misery. Fuck the polls. Ohio will soundly reject the crackhead-in-chief.

[kwolf68]

20. Key word is "Removed"

From the polling universe.

How does that account for 18, 19, 20 year olds who have just registered and are using cells?

[Mr_Spock]

21. Yep, and after the election - ooops!!! It was 8 %!!

I know I don't answer my home line because anyone who is worth talking to call me on my cell phone. No polls here.

[EST]

22. Land lines have numbers (area codes plus exchange)

that pollsters use to get regional balance and responses from a particular geographic area. Cell phone numbers are not nearly so tied to a specific area, so pollsters are reluctant to use them. All the organizations I have contacted, after hemming and hawing and trying to pretend they MIGHT use some cell numbers, finally admit that they actually use zero cell polls.

[sendero]

23. That may be true in theory...

... but it is damn sure not true in practice. Anyone who screens calls with Caller Id (got to be a huge percentage) is probably out - I never answer a call if it isn't friend or family, ever.

[sendero]

24. Nothing makes for a crazy argument..

.... better than one's entire line of work depending on folks buying it :)

[AlabamaYankee]

25. I have a device that block electronically dialed calls

It may be an insignificant addition to the phones out of reach of pollsters, but any that dial electronically will get a message that my number is not active. It's cut back significantly on telemarketers and Republican phone banks.

[tom22]

26. I understand that Gallup

does generate random numbers in making their phone calls for polls. I don't know if anyone else does. I saw a rep from Gallup explain this at a seminar covered by CSPAN.