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2000: N/A (no incumbent)
1996: Clinton won, but by significantly less than the polls indicated he would. Undecideds appear to have broken for Dole, the challenger.
1992: Clinton won by less than predicted. Perot got a lot more votes than predicted. Given Bush's pathetic showing, it is unlikely undecideds broke in his direction. They appear to have gone to Perot, a challenger, but a unique one.
1988: N/A (no incumbent)
1984: Reagan won by approximately what the polls indicated, I think. No clear break. Result: ?
1980: Reagan won what had appeared to be a relatively close election. Undecideds appear to have broken for the challenger.
1976: Carter won narrowly in a race he had been up significantly in. I think late polls indicated a tossup though, so I'm not sure if there was a clear break at the end. Ford was an incumbent, but an unelected one, so perhaps this election isn't comparable. Result: ?
1972: Nixon won by approximately what polls indicated, I think. Result: ?
1968: N/A (no incumbent)
1964 and before: Extremely little knowledge of the polls, so I'll stop here.
So out of the last 5 elections with an elected incumbent, 3 showed clear breaks for a challenger on election day (1980 Reagan, 1992 Perot, 1996 Dole), 2 (the landslides) showed no clear break that I am aware of. In none of these cases did the incumbent gain an advantage at the last minute.
That's what I come up with off the top of my head.
--Peter
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