Electoral College
2004 Projected
Bush 213
Kerry 211
Toss up 114
Total 538
RasmussenReports.com
Electoral College Projections
Based Upon Most Recent Rasmussen Reports Survey Data and Election 2000 Results
September 24, 2004--The latest Rasmussen Reports Electoral College projection shows George W. Bush with 213 Electoral Votes and John Kerry with 211. There are nine states with 114 Electoral Votes in the Toss-Up category.
Generally speaking, any state where the candidate leads by less than five points is considered a Toss-Up.
Today, we are moving Oregon back to the "Leans Kerry" column. Our latest survey shows the Democrat up by eight points in that state.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Electoral%20College%20Projection.htmThis is the best projection for Kerry in Rasmussen since the Republican Convention. By September 6, Kerry had fallen to 175 EV in the projection, but Bush has been at 213 since that date. Kerry has been steadily increasing his electoral vote count, while Bush still remains at 213. Bush has been stagnant in the Rasmussen Electoral colege polls, and has been bobbing up and down in Rasmussens National Poll, but the trend has been for Kerry to be moving closer and closer to Bush's lead and the race being a statistical dead head with Rasmussen over the last ten days.
In fact, all of the independent pollsters who are not doing the polls for the media or another agency have all had the race being statisticaly a dead heat, with Bush a point ahead of Kerry in most, and tied in a few. Bu independent pollster except Rasmussen (Zogby ARG) have Kerry with a strong lead in the electoral college.
Yesterday, a poll done by Bloomberg REports also has Kerry ahead in the electoral college.