We are still ahead in Party ID, ignore the GOPropaganda

[sonicx]

The GOP has released a story about some magically increase in the # of pukes after the RNC. Ignore it. They think this because of the polls from Gallup, Newsweek, and others that show more people ID as repubs.

This same kind of thing happened back in 2000. Several pollsters (including rasmussen and gallup) got more republican respondants than dem ones and felt it would be the trend for the election (and so their left their samples unweighted). Why they got more republican respondants, i dunno. But these polls are usually done with small samples (700-1000) and are done in 2 or 3 days. The pollsters that used unweighted polls were either inaccurate or had wild, unexplained swings within a few days. Party ID seem to be a much broader issue to figure out and can't be pinned with quickie polls.

Pew Research, however, does seperate polls on this one issue with samples of around 20,000 and has shown that we lead party affilation in 2004 (33%-29%). With leaners, the numbers are 47-41.

http://people-press.org/commentary/display.php3?AnalysisID=95

For whatever reason, there was a brief jump in rupub party ID for a while after 9/11(just a few percent points), but the jump has mostly died down since. These new quickie, unweighted election polls would have you believing that the RNC caused a 5% or more bounce in rupuke party ID.

here's a good read on that:

http://www.emergingdemocraticmajorityweblog.com/donkeyrising/archives/000693.php

[papau]

1. Excellent point - excellent data - but some "national polls" still will

not adjust for voter ID!

So we get Bullshit like Bush with double digit leads!

sigh.....

:-)

[Barney Rocks]

2. I wonder if the difference

is in the people that will not respond. Quite a few Democrats have said that they screen their calls and do not respond if they do not know who is calling. I wonder if the popularity of caller id (especially in the more urban areas) has made it so that fewer Democratic voters respond to pollsters? From what I can gather caller id is more popular in the cities than in rural areas--so more Democrats probably have it. It seems like people get caller id and then screen their calls so that they are not bothered all the time.

[sonicx]

3. caller id and cellphones could be issues

I dunno. There are alot of people that don't answer unidentified calls or don't want to be bothered with polls. Seems to me that many wouldn't want these things interruping their evenings.

[Philostopher]

5. But younger voters tend to be more liberal,

and they're the ones with no land-line phones in such great numbers. I think you're right that caller ID may not be as big an influence -- there probably are plenty of cons who also don't answer their phones if they don't recognize the ID.

[ochazuke]

4. Even if we are tied with the GOPsters...

We'll get the majority of independents and are gearing up for the mother of all Get Out The Vote (GOTV) efforts.

Ergo, we will win. Probably.