Sept. 18. Mark it down. The day Kerry hit rock bottom in the polls.

[TruthIsAll]

Would someone please tell the mediawhores that their Bushit about Kerry being down for the count is getting a little old?

[MissouriTeacher]

1. So..

how is Kerry's win probability so high with the polls (the good ones) showing the race a tie?

[TruthIsAll]

3. Simple, the popular vote is tied, but he's ahead in the Electoral Vote.

Zogby has him winning the EV by 297-241.

In my Election Model, the Monte Carlo election simulation consists of 5000 election trials based on the latest state polls. I run the model for five cases (25,000 trials all together) in which I assume allocation of the undecided vote to Kerry at 50,55,60,67 and 75%.

With just 60% of the undecided, Kerry has a 92% probability of winning. Here's why: he wins 4600 out of 5000 simulation trials. His average EV in the 5000 trials is 304. He needs 270 to win.

If he gets 75% of the undecided, its a blowout. His probability would be 99.6%.

I know it sounds high, but if his popular vote margin is just 2% (51-49), he has a 92% probability of getting more than 270 Ev's and winning the election.

If Kerry wins the popular vote by a four point margin (52-48), then he has a 99.6% chance of winning. With 75% of the undecided, he will achieve a 4% victory margin, based on his current numbers.

[MissouriTeacher]

4. Well...

I'm a complete ignoramus when it comes to statistical analysis, but I sure hope you're right.

Is this your first time doing this with an election?

[TruthIsAll]

11. This is the first time I have done it for others.

I maintained a spread sheet for myself in 2000.

[kevin881]

5. if you split the undecided vote down the middle, 50% to Kerry

what are his odds then?

[TruthIsAll]

8. With 50% of the undecided, he has a 70% prob. Check the numbers

on the first screen.
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

I run the simulation to obtain win probabilities for the five undecided allocation cases: 50, 55, 60, 67, 75%.

That's 5000 election trials for each simulation (case).

[Poiuyt]

6. Question, TIA

The win probability is based on Zogby polls from today (or recently). If Zogby's polls change, then your win probability will change also, is that correct? You aren't predicting the future, just stating how things look at this point in time?

[kevin881]

7. yes thats right. its why the probability changes by date

also, I think that he is using an average of all polls, but not sure.

[TruthIsAll]

10. I don't use an average of the state polls. The polls are used

to calculate the probability of winning each state. The simulation runs 5000 trial elections based on these probabilties. Check out the Monte Carlo report which shows the first 10 of 5000 simulation trials, with results for each state and a total EV for each trial.

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

[TruthIsAll]

9. As state polls change, so will the probabilities, of course.

I use the state polls from electoral-vote.com, which right now have mostly Zogby and ARG numbers.

You can view the historic trends graphically for the popular and electoral votes and the win probabilties. They all move together.

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

When Kerry gets to 52% in the popular vote, he will have a win probability of close to 100% with an average EV of 335.

[David Zephyr]

2. TruthIsAll, Thanks For All Your Poll Posts For Months Now.

Much gratitude! :)

[xray s]

12. the only thing you need to know about polls is....

...the trend is our friend! :)

[NewYorkerfromMass]

13. Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Florida are the Dem keys

Florida is looking solid , machines allowing. the other 2 I am less sure of.

[bush equals idiot]

14. Follow Zogby.

Zogby was the first one to ridicule the polls recently when the TV airheads were saying Bush had an 11% lead. He was proven right two days later and everbody had to report it was too close to say anybody was ahead.

The other pollsters don't like Zogy because he's got a completely different methadology. He's been the only one who was right in all the elections.

[TruthIsAll]

15. kick to put things in perspective..

tia