Bush lead shrinks in new Time Poll.

[demosincebirth]

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Bush (news - web sites) led Democratic nominee John Kerry (news - web sites) by 6 percentage points in a TIME Magazine poll released on Friday, compared with an 11-point lead in a similar poll two weeks ago.



Forty-eight percent of likely voters surveyed said they would vote for Bush, and 42 percent said they would vote for Kerry, according to the magazine's latest poll. Five percent said they would vote for Ralph Nader (news - web sites).


Among registered voters, 48 percent said the United States was right to go to war against Iraq (news - web sites), down five points from two weeks ago.



http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=584&e=3&u=/nm/20040924/pl_nm/campaign_poll_time_dc

[JI7]

1. 5 percent for Nader ? i find that hard to believe

but it could be those who say they are for nader but in the end will vote for Kerry.

[demosincebirth]

2. I hope you're right

[Mojambo]

8. Are they giving Nader as an option to voters in all states?

Because a person might say they're going to vote for Nader and he isn't even going to be on the ballot in their state.

[formernaderite]

17. Part of the five percent voting for Nader....

...are people who are basically anti-war and pacifists, and have yet heard Kerry say anything remotely anti-war. From his convention on....he ran as the warrior President. Some how the democratic party thought that would appeal to most of us, right?
I'm going to pull the lever for Kerry this time, because I promised myself I'd vote for which ever democrat won the primaries. Just don't think alot of Green party and old Quakers appreciate this stance.

[City Lights]

3. Time sucks.

I want to see their polling sample. Their last polls have over sampled pukes, just like Newsweek, CNN, USA Today, Gallup, etc. All the corporate polls are just like the corporate media. Good for nuttin'.

[ClassWarrior]

5. You're wrong.

ALL polls suck. Time, Schmime, Gallup, Schmallup. They are sooo fraught with error it'd be funny if it wasn't so tragic.

[City Lights]

7. Polling sucks. Some polls are more reliable than others.

Time isn't one of them.

[Bucky]

4. Yay!!

It should shrink until it's negative.

[kentuck]

6. By November 2nd, it will have shrunk to invisibility

Just like it always does. Their 11 point lead has shrunk down to 6 points this week. What will it be next week? It has served their purpose - now they can get down to preserving their credibility - if they ever had any.

[Guaranteed]

9. Yup.

Kerry will be ahead, actually. :)

[despairing optimist]

10. The post-convention effect has worn off

The morning after has arrived. Leading economic indicators are down for three consecutive months, unemployment is up substantially, existing home sales have declined for three months running, new-job creation is down, the markets are skidding, and oh, yes, Iraq is a complete disaster. Don't forget Afghanistan; I'm sure They want us to.

Does anyone really think that W can win as the homeland security president fighting a well-planned war on terror and pointing to Iraq as a successful model of democratic rebirth in the Middle East?

If people in this country can be made to buy that, then they deserve four more years of this administration. But I don't think most will.

[shockingelk]

11. I think "narroes/shrinks/wee bit smaller" ...

IUs too nice. He was 11 pointsw ahead in the last one and now is only six "shrivels" or "halves" is more appropriate.

BTW, none of the polls which showed a 19 point swing in a month were believable at either end. That would mean that almost everyone who could possibly vote for either Jr or Kerry has changed there mind in just a few weeks.

We're not that of a fickle country! I believe the way they are picking out likely voters has been wrong - FOX and Zogby are probably closer to reality - most other polls never have Bush behind in "likely voters" as opposed to "registered voters". And if you believe the election is being promarily driven by dislike for Bush - which I do - that is what you'd expect to see.

Plus, Zogby and FOX are always following approximately the same curve: dark blue and fuchsia lines: http://fearofclowns.com/text/net_difference_poll_results/

[Borgnine]

12. Hah.

I misread your topic title. I thought it said "Bush leads shrinks in new Time poll," and there's no way a man with so many glaring emotional problems could get the majority of psychiatrists on his side.

[BlueNomad]

15. good one..

lol

[SoCalDemocrat]

13. Random sample polls are worthless

These polling results are worthless.

Rasmussen and Zogby are the only two I'd even consider reading.

[pinkpops]

18. please splain the difference

[Lexingtonian]

14. They're lagging behind

other pollings...sort of like the rest of that magazine lags the real news, come to think of it.

But their calling it a 48/42 split is barely the standard margin of error away from Zogby's 46/43, biased or unbiased as each one may be. Look around at all the anecdotal stuff being posted here about Undecided voters being full of emotional confusion and right wing talk radio "knowledge" and it's easy to see how the polling just has to have relatively high variation even where no intent to bias the result exists.

The numbers and interpretations will all be simpler and more uniform in a week or two, when Bush hits his 44% baseline. And the Confused will shortly stop imagining that Nader is part of the solution rather than part of the problem at roughly the same time.

[Anarcho-Socialist]

16. I think if the Time poll says they're neck-and-neck...

...that'd probably translate in to a Kerry landslide

[demosincebirth]

19. I agree.