Democracy Corps: State of the Race

[swag]

Ruy Teixeira (whose blog "Donkey Rising" is a daily must-read: http://www.emergingdemocraticmajorityweblog.com/donkeyrising/index.php) linked this very interesting paper from Democracy Corps on the state of the 2004 presidential race. As Teixeira said, the whole thing is worth a read, but I'll excerpt:

http://www.democracycorps.com/reports/surveys/State_of_the_Race2.pdf


"But we also track the public polls, many of which are carried out in inconsistent ways, with questionable methodologies. Indeed, some, including CNN/Gallup/USA Today, has a track record of extreme volatility and inaccuracy. But even taking these polls
at their face value, the race has tightened to a contest nearly identical to the one described in the Democracy Corps poll. The public polls released this week give Bush an average lead of 2.0 points (44.7 to 46.7 percent). The week earlier, the average lead was 4.5 points for Bush, 5.2 points the week earlier and 6.0 points in the first week of September. At his best point after the convention, Bush had only 49 percent of the vote on average,
which suggests a pretty low ceiling for his vote. In any case, looking the average of the polls – not only the worst ones, as done by the media – allows one to see a nearly tied race before the debates.

In the battleground states the current state of the race now matches where it stands nationally. Over the course of the year Kerry consistently performed marginally better in these states than he did nationally, but since the Republican convention Bush’s narrow
lead here has mirrored his advantage overall. In any event, the states that will decide who has the electoral college majority, are also deadlocked. Even with no change in the candidates’ relative standing, it is worth highlighting the party leanings of the undecided and Nader supporters. Looking at this and our prior September poll, both groups lean strongly Democratic or for Kerry by 2-to-1, suggesting possible later gains nearer election day.

More important for Kerry as he goes into the debates is the mood of the country. A majority of voters (52 percent) still believe that the country is headed on the wrong track, with only 43 percent things are going in the right direction. An identical majority says they want to go in a “significantly different” from Bush. There is a majority ready
to hear a strong case against the incumbent.

. . .

[wurzel]

1. The debate difference between Bush and Kerry?

Kerry must be looking forward to it. Bush cannot be.