Rasmussen Battleground Polls Show Little Movement

[louis c]

Rasmussen national, 3 day tracking poll has Bush at 47.9% and Kerry at 46.3%.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com

On the Paid Premium Site of key battleground states, Minnesota was added just today. This is a 7 day rolling average which is updated daily. Minnesota, 46% Tie (no change from yesterday); Florida, Bush 49%-48% (no change from yesterday); Michigan, Kerry 49%-44% (That's a 1 point Kerry gain from yesterday); Ohio, Bush 48%-45% (That's a 1 point Kerry gain from yesterday); Pennsylvania, Bush 47%-46% (That's a 1 point Bush gain from yesterday).

In addition, there are Premium numbers for three other states. Nevada, Bush 47%-45% (This is a 1 point Bush gain from the last poll taken there one month ago); The State of Washington, Kerry 50%-43% (This is a 2 point Kerry gain from 9/18); South Carolina, Bush 51%-42% (This is a 3 point Bush gain from 9/18).

These are tracking numbers which demonstrate a trend. I would say, that these numbers, taken with Rasmussen's Electoral Vote Projection of Bush 213 to Kerry 211 suggests that this election is a toss-up.

[tedoll78]

1. My general rule:

if the state is a toss-up on November 1st, it will most likely go into Kerry's column. Most state polls were really close before Election 2000 (with many having Gore down), and Gore pulled 'em out. Given how we're doing a really kick-ass job on new voter registration, and given how we're much more energized than in 2000.. I like our chances.

[Lexingtonian]

2. not really

Don't forget that Undecideds break against the incumbent- 70% to 85% of them vote for challenger. If a lengthy campaign season hasn't convince them that the incumbent is worthy, the only reason they'll vote for her/him is that the challenger very plausibly will be worse.

All of these states -except Ohio- project very close to what they have since the spring, once you take out a fixed Nader vote, with the caveat that Bush still has ~2% "bounce" left in swing states. (But over the course of his presidency he's lost support at a constant rate of 2.5% every single month, which he's also had during the course of September, so by Election Day he'll be out of that "bounce".)

All the polling is painfully consistent in who wins where if Undecideds are projected to split the usual way: NH is consistently projecting for Kerry by 51/46/3, and there is real hope for his carrying FL by 51/48/1, NV 50/48/2, AZ is something like tied at 49/49/1. Incidentally, IA is 50/48/2, WI just about the same numbers, PA 50/47/3 or better. All other marginal Gore states (OR, WA, NM, ME) are safely Kerry's to the point of not needing discussion. The rest of the 'battleground states' are Bush's, though there's no need to make it easy for him, with CO, MO, VA, and AZ being 52/48s or 51/49s. The summary of all polling this year to date: the candidates have bounces and baselines that are remarkably strongly fixed this year, and voters are going from Candidate X to Undecided and then back again to Candidate X. No one's switching, net.

Ohio has moved ~3% more Republican over the past 2-3 months to being tied: the R's have found some large bunch of new Christian Right and/or rural voters there. After looking at Ohio and West Virginia numbers for a long time, I've come to think of them as "caboose" states- you can't rely on the electorate there to buck what they think the national trend or national decision is, they just don't work by a collective sense of autonomy relative to the country as a whole. Some other state has to lead, to tip the balance for change, then they'll get on board.

Colorado has moved about 2-3% more Undecided/Democratic, which is probably the Salazar brothers getting a relatively massive amount of inactive Hispanic voters fully registered and involved. (Democrats have been trying to get southern Colorado Hispanic voters active for a number of elections, but unsuccessfully until this year.) It was going to be a 51/48 Bush state before this, so GOP operatives are getting ulcers and screaming for more money there (to turn out more rural white voters).

So, in fact Kerry has a slight lead, even according to Rasmussen, if you read the numbers with some amount of knowledge. We're not going to lose any states Gore won and will add New Hampshire, but breaking into the 'Iron Triangle' of Ohio, Florida, and Nevada is proving pretty difficult. It's not that the polling isn't Kerry's way- it is- but that Bush/Cheney '04 are going to run another political hysteria campaign in these states and Iowa/Wisconsin in the last week or so, This tends to drive up Christian/elderly white Right turnout enough to tip things. It worked nicely in '02, the pre-run, though barely.

That's why the media is continuing to bet on Bush winning- they don't think Kerry's small margins in these states will hold up. Democratic countermeasures are in place, but everyone knowledgeable admits that they're compensation tactics, so they can be overwhelmed as long as Democratic strategists haven't figured out how to kill off the effect. (It's being worked on is all I'll say to that; don't be too surprised if it proves possible and surprises them or they can't get it off the ground with the electorate this time.)

[louis c]

5. Not Really?

I say this election is a toss-up, is that what you mean buy "not really"?

You then give 7 well thought out paragraphs, all of which I agree with, to come to the conclusion that the election is a toss-up.

I realize that you think Kerry is slightly ahead, others can make a case that Kerry is slightly behind. In either case, an election in which the spread is certainly less than 2 points either way, with three debates and more than five weeks to go to election day, should be considered a toss-up.

Really.

[louis c]

7. kick

[marlakay]

3. They don't poll the new thousands and thousands of dems

Don't forget this. We will win!!

[DemFromMem]

4. undercounting of immigrants

The polls also consistently undercount immigrant voters who typically don't respond to polls either because their English skills are weak or because they don't trust people who call them asking questions about their politics (which we Americans are a lot more comfortable telling a stranger than people from many other countries). 1 in 10 Americans was born outside the US. 3 million people have become naturalized citizens since the last election. Hispanics vote Democratic by a 2 to 1 margin and Hispanic immigrants are the bulk of the pool of new citizens.

I actually think that this undercount may have accounted for some of Gore's surprise support in 2000.

[louis c]

6. kick