Independent National AND State polls agree: Kerry has a 92% win prob

[TruthIsAll]

assuming Kerry gets 60% of the undecided vote.

These eight pollsters comprise the Election Model's New Independent Pollster group:
The Economist, Harris, PEW, Zogby, ARG, IBD/CSM, Dem Corp, Quinnipac.

I separated them from the corporates to get a true perspective on how Kerry is really doing. They are all included in the full 18 pollster group.

Let's start with this fact:
The Margin of Error is lower for a group of polls than it is for a single poll.

For a single national poll of 1000 respondents, the MOE is 3.10%.

For 8 Independent polls (equivalent to ONE poll of 8000 respondents) the group MOE is 1.10%.

For 18 polls (equivalent to ONE poll of 18000 respondents) the group MOE is 0.73%.

Kerry's Win Probability as calculated by the State Electoral Vote Monte Carlo Simulation model is equal to the number of Kerry wins (at least 270 EV) in the 5000 election trials, divided by 5000:

EV Win Prob = Kerry EV wins/5000 = 92%.

THUS, BOTH THE STATE MODEL AND THE 8-POLL NATIONAL INDEPENDENT MODEL PROBABILITIES, WHICH ARE CALCULATED BY TWO DIFFERENT METHODS, EACH CONFIRM ONE OTHER.

IF THE ELECTION WERE HELD TODAY:
KERRY WOULD HAVE A 92% PROBABILITY OF WINNING.

SAY IT LOUD!

WIN PROBABILITY%
.....8poll 18poll State EV
MOE 1.10% 0.73% Win %
Kerry 92.4 20.2 92.2
Bush 7.6 79.8 7.8

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

[Ishoutandscream]

1. You the man, TIA!!!

Always great stuff. Thanks.

[EST]

2. Good job

We desperately need a change of direction. And we will have it!

[HootieMcBoob]

3. One question about the polls

What we had all believed has been confirmed by today's NY Times. Our work in getting out the vote, especially in swing states, is paying off. It looks like we're registering a lot more new voters than the republicans.

My question is: do the polls take these newly registered voters into account?

Do they only contact people who voted in previous elections?

It seems to me that given this information Kerry should be much farther ahead than he appears to be.

Basically, my question is: are these polls really an accurate reflection of what we can expect to see come election day?

By the way TruthIsAll, I really appreciate your poll posts :thumbsup:

[TruthIsAll]

5. The polls only partially reflect the new voters (RVs)

Likely voter polls (LVs) do NOT reflect the newly registered.

The polls CANNOT account for the turnout. No one knows how many will vote. But the Dems should get the bulk of new (young) voters.

[HootieMcBoob]

11. thanks tia n/t

[crispini]

4. w00t! thanks TIA!

btw, aren't you in FLA? How are things where you are? (Or am I thinking of someone else?)

[TruthIsAll]

8. In Delray Beach. Got thru it OK, but up north Fort Pierce got hit

Now Jeanne is hitting the West Coast.

[demosincebirth]

12. Where, what, west coast? Oh, Florida! Whew!

Had me running around checking to see if I still had flood insurance.

[NJCher]

6. thanks for the analysis

I always read your posts with great interest.


Cher

[GOPBasher]

7. This is uplifting. Thanks TruthIsAll!

:-)

[Nana]

9. Thank you, TIA

I REALLY!!! appreciate your posts! And, they appeal to the math teacher in me! ;)

[mconvente]

10. new poll

has Kerry 1 point behind Bush in Ga?? I don't think that's correct, but who knows? We'll have to look at the trend in the coming days.